The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a document asking local governments to prevent housing prices from rising and falling, what is going on? There is a high probability that this house price will not rise, and this house price drop has become a big problem. According to the real estate market situation announced by Kerry, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, in February this year, the total transaction volume of new houses in first-tier cities was only 680,000 square meters, down 66% year-on-year and 56% month-on-month, and the total transaction volume of new houses in second- and third-tier cities was only 4.24 million square meters, down 72% year-on-year and 43% month-on-month.
I remember that Boss Sunac once said that once the house price exceeds 30%, almost all real estate companies will die. Let's take a look at the current status of real estate companies. According to data from the Institute of Secondary Vocational Education, from January to February 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the country will be 4,762400 million, down 51 percent year-on-year6%, properly cut in half. In February, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were only 199.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 616%, month-on-month **216%, a new low in recent years.
The top three real estate companies are Poly, Vanke and China Merchants, with a year-on-year increase from January to February1%、 45.1%。Among the top 10 real estate companies, there are actually 3 sales of more than 50% year-on-year, and the largest increase is Country Garden, with sales of only 121700 million, a year-on-year increase of **783%, which is very exaggerated, has already ranked 10th, and almost fell out of 10th. To put it simply, it has been **22 consecutive months, and the housing prices in many places have fallen back to the level before 2019, and some communities have even returned to earlier.
At present, the number of second-hand housing listings in some large cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, has reached a new high, and even some houses are still in progress, especially in the context of oversupply, the trend of second-hand housing is more obvious. On February 27, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice requiring cities to make two-year plans. It is worth noting that the previous tone was set differently in the expression of the document, which was to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, and this time the emphasis was on preventing the market from fluctuating. In fact, in order to stabilize the real estate market, since 2024, the above policies have continued to optimize real estate, such as the recent interest rate cut, which is to promote investment and housing consumption, which is expected to boost everyone's confidence.
The Ministry of Housing requires to prevent a big rise in housing prices, and this big rise is likely to not get up, and how to prevent the big fall? It is also necessary to curb speculation and speculation, and to meet the needs of buying houses, and to make housing prices stable and healthy in the context of housing speculation. In this context, the trend of continuous relaxation of real estate policies this year will not change, and the intensity of relaxation will most likely increase. Last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released a data that China has 600 million houses, note that it is 61 houses, not 61 sets and 61 houses. What does this mean?
Even if only 10 people live in each house, it is enough for 6 billion people. That is to say, there are signs of surplus in the purchase of houses, but the distribution is not very even, and the housing control is mainly self-built houses in rural areas. Another is the area where there is a serious loss of population, where 96% of households already own a property, and 41% of households own more than two properties5%。In addition, there are still a lot of newly built commercial houses entering the market every year, and the trend of population decline will also reduce the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases in the future. Personally, I believe that real estate is gradually returning to residential attributes, and housing prices are becoming reasonable, which is undoubtedly good news for rigid demand. In the long run, will the housing prices be as green onions as Ma Yun said, and please express your views.