Hydrogen energy, as a "frontier emerging industry", has been named in the ** work report. The 2024 ** work report proposes: actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries; Accelerate the development of cutting-edge emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs and other industries. At the local two sessions in early 2024, 22 of the 31 provincial-level administrative regions will include hydrogen energy in their work reports.
According to statistics, in 2023, the production capacity of green hydrogen projects (planned to be signed, under construction, bidding, and put into operation) in China will exceed 2 million tons, and the estimated investment will exceed 450 billion yuan; With the release of hydrogen energy policy documents, the development of the hydrogen energy industry is expected to accelerate in 2024.
Recently, the A-share hydrogen energy concept sector is strong, on March 6, Tianyuan Intelligent 6 boards, Evergrande High-tech, Nar shares both rose to the limit, New Power, Fortune, Dongfeng Motor, etc. followed up.
There are more than 200 hydrogen energy concept stocks in A-shares, and if you need a detailed **, you can send me a private message and send a "universal meter" to find an assistant to receive. 1. Analysis of the hydrogen energy sector
1. The development prospect of hydrogen energy
Policy support: Hydrogen energy manufacturing industry chain hydrogen is currently the most ideal clean energy, and all countries are actively promoting the development of hydrogen energy.
Technological progress: With the continuous progress of science and technology, the production, storage, transportation and application technologies of hydrogen energy are constantly improving, laying the foundation for the large-scale application of hydrogen energy.
Market demand: Hydrogen energy has a wide range of application prospects in transportation, electric power, industry and other fields. Especially in the field of transportation, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the advantages of zero emission, high efficiency, and fast refueling, and are considered to be an important development direction for new energy vehicles in the future. With the promotion and popularization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the market demand for the hydrogen energy sector will continue to grow.
2. Hydrogen energy industry chain
The hydrogen energy industry chain includes hydrogen energy manufacturing and hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen energy manufacturing refers to the process of hydrogen production to application, including hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen refueling and other links.
According to the different sources of preparation, hydrogen production can be divided into "gray hydrogen", "blue hydrogen" and "green hydrogen". The storage of midstream hydrogen can be divided into high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, liquid hydrogen, and solid material hydrogen storage according to the phase state in which hydrogen exists. According to the different hydrogen storage methods, hydrogen transportation can be divided into long-tube trailer hydrogen transportation, pipeline network hydrogen transportation, etc. Downstream, hydrogen can be used in different fields such as transportation (hydrogen fuel cell vehicles), industry, construction, etc.
1) Hydrogen production:
Hydrogen production includes three methods: fossil energy reforming, industrial by-product purification, and water electrolysis hydrogen production: fossil energy reforming hydrogen production: including coal to hydrogen and natural gas hydrogen production technology routes. Hydrogen production by purification of industrial by-products: coke oven gas, light hydrocarbon cracking by-product hydrogen, etc., which are distributed in steel, chemical and other industries. Hydrogen production technology by water electrolysis: There are mainly alkaline water electrolyzers (AE), proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEM), solid oxide water electrolyzers and other hydrogen production technologies. Depending on the production** and carbon emissions, hydrogen can be divided into three types: grey hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and green hydrogen
Grey hydrogen is produced from fossil reforming (coal, natural gas), industrial by-products (coke oven gas, chlor-alkali), etc. Blue hydrogen is the carbon dioxide capture and storage of grey hydrogen, which is the stage of transition to green hydrogen. Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced through electrolysis using renewable energy sources (solar, wind) and its carbon emissions can reach net zero. At present, global hydrogen energy production**: natural gas hydrogen production accounts for 62%, coal hydrogen production accounts for 19%, industrial by-product hydrogen production accounts for 18%, and water electrolysis hydrogen production accounts for 004%。The cost of gray hydrogen in China is the lowest (7 10 yuan kg for coal-to-hydrogen, 10 16 yuan kg for industrial by-product hydrogen), and the highest production cost of green hydrogen (30-40 yuan kg for mains electricity). In 2030, the cost of PV-coupled green hydrogen is expected to fall to 1 1$5 kg.
2) Hydrogen storage and transportation.
Hydrogen storage: There are three main ways of hydrogen storage: gaseous, liquid and solid hydrogen storage, and at present, gaseous hydrogen storage is the mainstay: high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage has the advantages of fast hydrogen charging and discharging speed and simple container structure, and is divided into two categories: high-pressure hydrogen bottles and high-pressure vessels.
2.Hydrogen transportation: There are three main modes of hydrogen transportation: gaseous, liquid and solid transportation, and at present, gaseous hydrogen transportation is the main way
High-pressure gaseous transportation can be divided into two modes: long-tube trailer (short-distance transportation) and pipeline transportation (large-scale long-distance transportation).
3.Hydrogen refueling (hydrogen refueling stations): Hydrogen refueling stations mainly provide hydrogen for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China ranks first in the world. The hydrogen refueling station is mainly composed of a hydrogen storage system, a compression system and a refueling system.
3) Investment opportunities in the hydrogen energy sector.
According to the data of "China's Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry *** 2019 2020", by 2050, hydrogen energy will be widely used in transportation, energy storage, industry, construction and other fields, and the annual demand for hydrogen will increase to 60 million tons, accounting for 10% of China's terminal energy system, and the industrial output value will reach 12 trillion; To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the annual demand for hydrogen will increase to 1About 300 million tons, accounting for 20% of China's final energy system.
With the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, upstream equipment manufacturers will be the first to benefit from the increase in demand. According to estimates, the scale of domestic electrolyzers is expected to exceed 80GW in 2030, corresponding to a market size of about 116 billion yuan; The cumulative installed capacity in Europe, the Middle East and India is about 100GW, 46GW and 58GW, with a total of more than 200GW.
The cost of hydrogen production by electrolysis of water mainly includes: equipment cost, energy cost (electricity), raw material cost (water) and other operating expenses. Energy costs, i.e., electricity costs, account for the largest proportion, generally 40% to 80%. Equipment cost: 1) Electrolyzer (electrolytic stack): It is the core part of the hydrogen production system by electrolysis of water, accounting for about 40% to 50% of the cost, including batteries, PTLs, bipolar plates, end plates and other small parts, of which the core part is the membrane electrode assembly; 2) System auxiliaries: including rectifiers, water purification units, hydrogen treatment (compression and storage) and cooling components, accounting for about 50%-60% of the cost.
2. Analysis of the A-share hydrogen energy sector
There are more than 200 listed companies related to A-share and hydrogen energy, including Sinopec with a market value of 700 billion yuan and Huitong New Materials with a market value of 600 million.
From the perspective of market performance, the top 10 concept stocks have risen by more than 50% in the past month, and the top 5 are: Kelai Electromechanical, Tianyuan Intelligence, Sealing Technology, Tongfei Shares, and Southern Power Grid Technology.
Among the ten companies, 6 companies have a revenue scale of less than 1 billion and a profit of less than 100 million, of which Kehua Data's revenue is 5.6 billion, deducting 2 non-profits4.7 billion, it is the largest company in terms of revenue and profit.
From the perspective of different links in the industrial chain, the current domestic enterprises with layouts in the hydrogen production link (electrolyzer) include:
Alkaline electrolyzers: Cockrell Competition, Tianjin Continental Hydrogen Production, Hanhydrogen Technology, LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Shuangliang Group, Mingyang Smart Energy, CIMC, Huadian Heavy Industry, Sunfly Technology, etc. PEM electrolyzers: Sunshine Hydrogen Energy, Aoyang New Energy.
In 2023, a total of 19 green hydrogen projects have been publicly tendered for electrolyzers, with a total of 1,882MW of electrolyzer tenders. In the first quarter of 2024, a total of 3 green hydrogen projects have been publicly tendered for electrolyzers, with a total of 67MW of electrolyzer tenders. From the perspective of the share of electrolyzer enterprises in hydrogen production projects, Perry Hydrogen Energy, LONGi Hydrogen Energy and Sungrow Power Supply ranked the top three, accounting for 16%, 14% and 13%.
In the storage and transportation link, the targets of hydrogen storage bottles include Sinoma Science and Technology, Jingcheng Co., Ltd., etc., and the targets of hydrogen pipeline transportation include petrochemical machinery; Meijin Energy and Zhongtai Co., Ltd. are the leading enterprises of hydrogen refueling station equipment in China. In addition, the leading manufacturers of fuel cell systems and other components include: Yihuatong, Weichai Power, Snowman Co., Ltd., etc.
3. Analysis of the concept of A-share hydrogen energy
Weichai PowerThe company is a key backbone enterprise in the R&D, manufacturing and sales of internal combustion engines in China.
Weichai Power has built a production line of fuel cell engines and stacks with a capacity of 20,000 sets, and is currently the world's largest hydrogen fuel cell engine manufacturing base. At the same time, the company has delivered fuel cell buses in batches, and initially achieved commercialization.
In recent years, the company's performance growth has stagnated, and it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 85 in 202384-93.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +750%-90.0%。
From a risk perspective, the company's goodwill value is 3198%, accounting for a relatively large amount, no major shareholder pledge, no senior major shareholder**. The sum of cash flow from operating activities for three years was 286%, the performance is average.
At the operational level, the three-year average growth rate of operating income is 507%；The three-year average growth rate of non-net profit after deduction: 1963%, the company's growth performance is average.
Finally, looking at the valuation, the rolling P/E ratio is 182 times, the current P/E ratio is in the mid-to-high range of the historical average.
2.Kelai Electromechanical
The company has disclosed that it has hydrogen fuel cell dynamic stack testing technology: it has independently developed fuel cell stack dynamic durability testing technology and process equipment, and has initially mastered the complete set of composition technology of the test bench.
The company is mainly engaged in flexible automation equipment and industrial robot system application business, and automobile engine supporting parts business. The automotive industry accounted for 97% of revenue. Although it was incorporated into the "hydrogen energy concept" by trading software, the stock price speculation was more out of the hype of the "robot concept".
The company's historical performance has grown steadily, with a decline in the last two years, and its performance has recovered in 2023, with a performance forecast of 09.1 billion to 09.8 billion yuan, an increase of 42 percent year-on-year00% to 5200%。
From a risk perspective, the company's goodwill is 1098%, accounting for a small proportion, no pledge by major shareholders, and major shareholders of senior executives in the last year **021%, acceptable. Cash flow from operating activities was 1606%, three-year average return on equity: 654%, all performing poorly.
At the operational level, the three-year average growth rate of operating income is -647%；The three-year average growth rate of non-net profit after deduction: 4804%, the company's operating indicators are poor as a whole, and it is currently in the recovery stage.
Finally, looking at the valuation, the rolling P/E ratio is 117x, and the current P/E ratio is in the high zone of the historical average.
3.Huaguang Halo can
The company replied on the interactive platform: the company is actively exploring domestic and foreign markets and is in the stage of obtaining orders for electrolyzers. According to public information, the company relies on the dual gene of "equipment + energy" to cut into the new track of hydrogen production by water electrolysis, and works closely with Dalian University of Technology in the research and development of electrolyzer technology, and officially launches the 1500-2000nm3 h alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system in April 2023, filling the gap of high-pressure electrolyzers in China, and has the ability to mass produce and deliver at any time.
From the business point of view, the company is an environmental protection and energy integrated comprehensive treatment service provider, all performance is around environmental protection projects and power stations, in recent years performance growth has basically stagnated.
From a risk perspective, the company's goodwill value is 284%, negligible, no pledge by major shareholders, and no major shareholders of senior executives in the last year**. Cash flow from operating activities totaled 33% over three years, performing well.
At the operational level, the three-year average growth rate of operating income is 1749%；The three-year average growth rate of non-net profit after deduction: 1143%, the company's growth performance is average.
Finally, let's take a look at the valuation, which is a rolling P/E ratio of 1556 times, the current P/E ratio is in the mid-to-high range of the historical average.
4. Huadian Heavy Industry
Huadian Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. has been deploying hydrogen energy business since 2020, and in 2022, the company's self-developed 1200nm3 h alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production device and gas diffusion layer products have been successfully rolled off the production line, and R&D achievements such as 150kW hydrogen fuel cell distributed energy supply system and proton exchange membrane materials have been formed.
From a business point of view, the company is mainly engaged in material conveying systems, thermal energy, and high-end steel structure engineering.
In terms of performance, the company's profit fluctuates significantly, and the net profit is expected to be 83 million yuan to 107 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 65% to 73%.
From the perspective of risk, the company's goodwill value is very small and can be ignored, there is no pledge by major shareholders, and there are no major shareholders of senior executives. The sum of cash flow from operating activities for three years was 1367%, poor performance.
At the operational level, the three-year average growth rate of operating income is -223%；The three-year average growth rate of non-net profit is 130%, and the company's growth performance is poor.
Finally, looking at the valuation, the rolling P/E ratio is 358 times, the current P/E ratio is in the low-to-mid range of the historical average.
5. Shuangliang energy saving
Shuangliang Hydrogen Energy, as a subsidiary of Shuangliang Energy Conservation, successfully developed a new generation of 2000nm h electrolyzer in September 2023, leading the world in technology. However, the company's hydrogen energy business has not been actively signed and expanded, and some small orders have been signed.
Shuangliang Energy Conservation started with bromine cooler, and its historical performance basically has no growth, and in 2021, it entered the photovoltaic silicon wafer market to start a "second venture", and the current photovoltaic business accounts for nearly 80%. The operating income will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2022, and the profit will also exceed 1 billion yuan, and it is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in 2023.
From the perspective of risk, the company has no goodwill, no pledge by major shareholders, and no major shareholders of senior executives. However, the three-year total cash flow from operating activities was -4446%, with a very poor performance in the ability to continue as a going concern.
At the operational level, the three-year average growth rate of operating income is 141%; The three-year average growth rate of non-net profit is 152%, and the company's growth performance is excellent.
Finally, looking at the valuation, the rolling P/E ratio is 998 times, the current P/E ratio is in the low area of the historical average.
6.New power
The company's main business is energy-saving combustion. In May 2023, the hydrogen fuel cell catalyst developed by the company has the characteristics of high performance, high durability and low cost, and with the help of the process technology jointly developed by Tsinghua University and Xuzhou Combustion Control Research Institute, the catalyst product has higher purity, narrower particle size distribution and more uniform morphology, and more stable performance.
The company's historical performance has been poor. The 2023 earnings forecast continues to be in the red.
The risk point is that the cash flow is very poor, the major shareholders have a high proportion of pledges, the operation and stability are also very poor, and the valuation is also high.
7.Sunfly Technology
Sunfly said on the interactive platform that the company has always been firmly committed to the development strategy of transforming to new energy, especially in the field of hydrogen energy, and focused on the development and layout of hydrogen production equipment. In addition, in June 2023, the subsidiary, Shenghydrogen Hydrogen Production, has obtained a hydrogen production equipment business order for the hydrogen production project in the station. At present, the main business is complete sets of electrical equipment and LED lighting business.
The company's historical performance has been poor, with losses in recent years, and it is expected to continue to lose significantly in 2023.
The company's operating conditions and stability are very poor.
8.Hongtao shares
The company and Shenzhen Kaihaoda Hydrogen Energy jointly invested in the establishment of Kaihaoda Hongtao Hydrogen Valley Technology (Shenzhen) ** Historical performance and fundamentals directly look at the chart, no waste of time.
9.Sichuan Jinding
In 2022, the company announced that it intends to invest in the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Sichuan Tiangong Hydrogen Storage Energy, with its own funds, and the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary will improve the company's strategic layout in the hydrogen energy industry chain.
Historical performance and fundamentals look directly at the chart.
10.Meijin Energy
The company has a complete industrial chain system from coal, coking, natural gas to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, at present, it is still dominated by coking products.
The company's historical performance fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the cyclical impact of coal.
From a risk perspective, the company's goodwill value is 045%, negligible; In the most recent year, the majority shareholder of the senior management **009%。The total cash flow from operating activities for three years was 5549%, good performance. But the pledge of major shareholders is as high as: 9854%, the pledge of major shareholders is too high, and the potential risk is extremely high.
At the operational level, the three-year average growth rate of operating income is 23%; The three-year average growth rate of non-net profit after deduction: 8447%, the company's growth performance is not good.
Finally, looking at the valuation, the rolling P/E ratio is 3284 times, the current P/E ratio is in the high zone of the historical average.
Fourth, summary:
Hydrogen energy is extensive, low-carbon and environmentally friendly, in line with China's carbon emission reduction strategy. In the long run, the scale of green hydrogen project planning in China is huge, and investors can focus on the development of the industry from a long-term strategic perspective. However, it is still in the early stage of development from 0 to 1, and the hydrogen energy industry has not yet achieved economies of scale, and the cost of "production, storage, transportation and processing" is relatively high, which inhibits the development of the industry.
In the future, the decline in the production cost of green hydrogen is the main trend of industrial development, mainly due to the decline in electricity costs and capital expenditure of electrolyzer equipment, as well as the improvement and optimization of electrolyzer operation efficiency.
We have compiled a universal table, which contains all the most important data of A-shares, such as each company's operating income in the past three years, deduction of non-net profit, net asset income, R&D expenses, etc., to measure the company's operating ability, and at the same time classify it according to the industry.
You can see which segment of which industry is any **; Compared with competing companies in the same industry, what is its industry status and what are its advantages and disadvantages? If the operating income is large enough, it means that the company is big enough; If the non-net profit is deducted enough, it means that the company is strong enough. If the ROE is high enough, it means that the quality of the company is better. If the R&D expenses are good enough, it means that the company is competitive.
The key data for judging ** are clear at a glance on this universal table. If you think you can use it, send me a private message, send a "universal meter", and ask my assistant to pick it up.