Kunpeng Project
Meng Xiaosu Rural land circulation and real estate can sustain China's economic growth8 for 20 years
A few days ago, at the second seminar of "Changbai Mountain", Meng Xiaosu once again made a series of "high comments" on the trend of China's property market.
The seminar was chaired by Mr. Meng Xiaosu, who put forward his views on the current situation of China's property market.
As the former head of the housing reform research group and the former chairman of China Real Estate Group, Meng Xiaosu has a lot of voice in the industry, so his words and predictions will attract the attention of many people.
Just when everyone lost confidence in real estate, Meng Xiaosu once again gave everyone a shot in the arm.
First, listen to what he said in the beginning.
China's real estate market, after 25 years of reform, all the real estate has been developed, while the United States, 248 years of development, 248 years, has just begun to grow.
And our neighbor Japan, told us that Japan's real estate **, in the past five years, began to recover, Japan's economy, at a rate of 35 percent, continues to climb, and even a few large cities, but also pushed the yen to a new height, if we say they are bubbles, then you are too late.
Today, China is facing so many problems, do we think that China will continue to develop like this? Did China reach its peak at a tenth of the speed of the United States? Not to mention, China's population is 4 more than that of the United States2 times, many middle-income families, are waiting to buy a house, and those who are not self-confident rich will keep their money in the bank, not no money, but keep their money in the bank, instead of keeping their own money, in the bank, and then buy it with money.
From Mr. Meng's tone, it can be heard that he is still full of confidence in China's real estate market, believing that China's real estate market has not reached its peak and will have great potential in the future.
Now China's real estate market, it's not that there is no market, it's just that people have lost confidence in real estate, and many rich people have invested their money in banks, which is why the real estate market will be temporary, China's real estate market, will soon recover.
Mr. Meng said that China's population is more than the United States, but the history of China's real estate industry development is much shorter, with reference to the experience of the United States, conservatively speaking, China's property market can continue for more than 100 years, so how can we make the property market continue to grow rapidly? Mr. Meng's eyes fell on the countryside.
In recent years, Meng Xiaosu has repeatedly proposed to promote the flow of agricultural land in China and the entry of agricultural land into the market.
At the Changbai Mountain symposium, he once again raised the issue of "farmland".
Meng Xiaosu pointed out that over the past year or so, he and many professionals have been advocating the transfer of farmland and farmland to the outside world, and if farmland can be transferred, it will be able to drive China's economic growth by more than 8 percent, and will continue to maintain a high-speed growth of about 8 percent in the next 20 years.
So, what is the transfer of agricultural land?
Meng Xiaosu believes that this is to break the gap between urban and rural areas, and implement "equal rights and equal prices" for towns and villages, so that farmland can be traded at will in the market, and farmland can also be given to developers for building residential buildings.
To put it simply, it is a large-scale rural real estate development.
First of all, they can ** their own land in the market, which is a great way to make money. With this money, they will be able to buy a house in the city and enjoy certain resources in the city, which will drive demand in the real estate market.
In addition, after acquiring land in rural areas, developers can use it for industrial construction or real estate development, which can not only meet the needs of urban residents, but also promote the development of the housing market.
Through this measure, at least the housing needs of hundreds of millions of peasants can be liberated, and at the same time, some people in cities and towns can buy houses in rural areas, thus promoting the development of the property market.
If the property market can continue to develop rapidly, then it can promote the continuous development of the economy, you know, in these decades, real estate has become the main economy in all regions of the country, for the economic development of many regions, are more than 10%, or even 20%.
It is for this reason that Meng Xiaosu believes that in the next 20 years or so, if the transfer of farmland in the countryside is implemented, it can boost the GDP growth rate by 8%.
God, this is simply a sentence, if farmland transfer can really boost 8% of China's GDP, then China will surpass the United States within a decade.
So, how much power does farmland transfer have? I think there's a question on everyone's mind.
In fact, Meng Xiaosu just wants to develop real estate, develop real estate.
In recent years, Meng Xiaosu has been vigorously promoting the property market, and even proposed to let ordinary people use 500 billion savings to buy houses, so as to promote the development of the property market.
At the same time, he also proposed that the small property rights house as the first pilot, collect a certain amount of taxes, in his opinion, the tax of small property rights housing, three to four times that of ordinary houses, if it is 2%, can last for ten to fifteen years, so that the small property rights can make up for the outstanding land transfer fees.
However, no matter how exaggerated he is about real estate, it can't fool those rational netizens.
Although Meng Xiaosu has come up with a series of figures to show that there is still a lot of potential for property growth in China, I don't think everyone will buy it.
First of all, there is a need for a house, there is no doubt about it, as long as there is a house, there will be a need, no matter this decade, a hundred years, as long as there is a house, someone will definitely buy it, which means that the house will never be eliminated.
However, today's real estate industry has reached a turning point, people can not count on real estate for future development, because today's real estate market is in a stage of gradual saturation, and with the decline of population, housing prices will also fall, housing prices will no longer have the same high growth rate as before, nor will there be more than 8% GDP growth.
Second, the most basic way to develop the economy is to develop economic and technological innovation.
We do not deny the function of real estate in stimulating economic development, especially in a short period of time, and it can indeed achieve immediate results.
However, I believe that the most basic way to promote long-term sustainable economic development is to develop the real economy, promote economic development through scientific and technological innovation, enhance economic competitiveness, increase the number of jobs for the people, and increase the people's income.
When people's income increases, people will have more money to spend, instead of electrical appliances such as mobile phones and computers, which have to be replaced every three or five times, while the tourism and catering industries are year after year, which is a long-term need. And once the property is sold, it will be decades, and when the market is saturated, there will be no new demand.
At the same time, the land is also the foundation of the farmer and can never be changed.
Why has our country been able to maintain stability for a long time, without large-scale slums? Chief among them is that because the peasants own their own land, they can be guaranteed to advance and retreat freely.
Peasants can go to the cities to find work to increase their income, and if they can't stay in the cities anymore, they can go back to the countryside, where they have houses and land to cultivate, and they can ensure a minimum of living conditions, instead of being full of homeless people like those developed countries.
Therefore, I believe that under no circumstances can agricultural land be arbitrarily changed, especially market-oriented reforms, and long-term stability cannot be undermined at the expense of immediate gains.