Author丨Zhang Min.
Editor丨Bao Fangming.
At 9 o'clock in the morning of March 5, the second session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in the Great Hall of the People. Among them, there is a lot of ink on real estate work.
When reviewing the work in 2023, the ** work report mentioned that in the past year, due to the city's policies, it has optimized real estate regulation and control, promoted the reduction of housing loan costs, actively promoted the work of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, formulated and implemented a package of local debt resolution plans, and classified and disposed of financial risks, so as to maintain the bottom line of no systemic risks.
For 2024, the ** work report proposes to better coordinate development and security, and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Adhere to high-quality development to promote high-level security, ensure high-quality development with high-level security, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, resolve risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, and maintain overall economic and financial stability.
Specifically, the real estate policy should be optimized, and the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems should be supported without discrimination, so as to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Compared to previous years,The 2024 ** work report also proposes for the first time to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, improve the basic system related to commercial housing, and meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified and improved housing.
In addition, we will steadily implement urban renewal actions, and promote the construction of public infrastructure and the transformation of urban villages.
Industry analysts said that "preventing risks and promoting stability" is still the bottom-line goal of this year's property market policy, and a series of policies to resolve risks will continue to be implemented. On this basis, in view of the new changes that are taking place in the real estate market, relevant policies will also be introduced one after another, such as building a new model of real estate development, improving the basic system, and promoting the "three major projects".
Risk prevention is still the bottom line
Since the liquidity crunch emerged in the second half of 2021, the prevention of real estate risks has been the focus of regulators.
Among them, the 2023 ** work report mentions real estate for the first time under the major item of risk resolution, and proposes, "effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head real estate enterprises, improve the asset-liability situation, prevent disorderly expansion, and promote the steady development of the real estate industry." ”
At the ** Financial Work Conference and ** Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023, the resolution of risks in the real estate sector was also mentioned. Among them, the first economic work conference will be real estate and local debt, small and medium-sized financial institutions risk juxtaposition, and proposed, "actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market." ”
2024 ** Work Report,Real estate was mentioned again under the work item of "resolving risks", and basically continued the statement of the first economic work conference
Industry analysts pointed out that "preventing risks and promoting stability" is still an important goal of this year's real estate policy.
Under this goal, relevant measures will continue to be strengthened. In addition to the "reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems should be supported equally" proposed in the work report, the "urban real estate financing coordination mechanism" and the real estate project financing whitelist system that have been promoted in various places recently are also important aspects.
According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, as of February 28, 2024, 276 cities in 31 provinces across the country have established urban financing coordination mechanisms, and a total of about 6,000 real estate projects have been proposed.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision also require that before March 15 this year, cities at and above the prefecture level should establish a financing coordination mechanism, not only to complete the "white list" push with high quality, but also to coordinate and solve the difficult problems of the project with high efficiency.
Industry analysts pointed outThe establishment of an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism is the most important measure to prevent property market risks this year。This move reflects a more refined management of real estate financing, while also helping to restore market expectations and confidence.
New changes and new measures
Compared with previous years, this year's work report still has new ideas. Among them,"Adapting to the development trend of new urbanization and changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market" was proposed for the first time in the first work report
Analysts believe thatThis formulation reflects the changing environment facing real estate development, and understanding this change is crucial to understanding the future policy orientation.
For this change, the regulator has previously interpreted it. In October 2023, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that after nearly 20 years of rapid growth, it is normal for real estate to adjust. According to the agency's interpretation, this also shows that real estate development has entered a new stage.
However, at the same time, there is still strong support for the sustained and high-quality development of real estate. On the one hand, the current urbanization rate of China's permanent population is 652%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population is only 477%。Therefore, no matter from the perspective of quantity or quality, urbanization has great room for improvement. On the other hand, although the total number of houses in China has reached about 40 billion square meters, there are many small and medium-sized houses, and there is great potential for improvement.
Sheng Laiyun said that "real estate is generally in a stage of adjustment".
At this stage, the relationship between supply and demand has shown some new characteristics, and the policy orientation will also change.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that in the process of promoting new urbanization, 3-400 million new citizens, young people, wage earners, and talent groups have a greater demand for low-cost, well-matched, and well-located rental housing and property right housing, and the current model of commercial housing cannot meet this demand.
Therefore, it is necessary to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing.
He also said that it is necessary to improve the basic system related to commercial housing, that is, the allocation and virtuous cycle of "people, real estate, and money". The human factor is the need to feel and arrange, and to build according to the needs; The factors of housing are investigated according to demand, and a guarantee system composed of rent allocation and placement is established, and a balance system of "security + market" is established; The factor of land is to determine the best of the land based on the factors of people and housing, and it is necessary to achieve a combination of low cost, job-housing balance and perfect supporting facilities; The money factor is based on the housing and land **analysis project**, funds**, including loan funds under the financing docking mechanism, public funds under the list system of affordable housing projects, market funds, etc.
In addition, while the traditional model of real estate investment and consumption has cooled, new impetus is also being cultivated. **The work report mentions the "three major projects" of affordable housing construction, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages, and continues to emphasize the steady implementation of urban renewal actions. Analysts believe that in 2024, these areas will usher in continuous policy support and more development opportunities.
Read the 2023 economic and social development report card
A quick overview of the main expected development goals in 2024
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