Author丨Yang Zhijin.
Editor丨Bao Fangming.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the 2024 ** work report mainly has the following concerns:
1.The GDP growth target is around 5%.
The economic growth target is a comprehensive indicator, which is the content that all walks of life are most concerned about. The economic growth target for 2019 is 6%-6%.5%；Due to the huge uncertainty brought about by the epidemic, no GDP growth target was set in 2020; The economic growth target for 2021 is more than 6%, and the economic growth target for 2022 is 5About 5%, but due to unexpected factors such as the epidemic, there is a big gap between the annual economic growth rate and the expected target at the beginning of the year. The economic growth target for 2023 is about 5%, and the final annual economic growth rate is 52%, slightly higher than the target growth rate.
The 2024 ** work report proposes that this year's GDP growth target is around 5%.。The reasons for this are: First, the target growth rate of 5% has maintained continuity with the target of recent years. Second, the target growth rate of 5% is in line with the current level of potential growth and is likely to be achieved. According to research institutions, the potential economic growth rate of China's economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is 5About 5%. According to a work estimate published by the People's Bank of China in 2021, China's potential output growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is 5%-5%.7%, and the overall growth continued to maintain a medium and high speed. Third, the setting of the target growth rate also needs to consider medium- and long-term planning. According to the medium- and long-term goals previously planned, it will reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035. According to some research institutions, this means an average annual growth rate of 473%, and the growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period should strive to achieve a growth rate of about 5%.
Taking into account the change in the base, it will be significantly more difficult to achieve a growth rate of about 5% in 2024 compared with 2023, and the fiscal policy has been significantly strengthened.
The 2024 ** work report said that the expected target for economic growth is about 5,It takes into account the needs of promoting employment and income growth, preventing and mitigating risks, and is in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of basically realizing modernization, as well as the potential and supporting conditions for economic growth, reflecting the requirements of being proactive and promising。Achieving this year's expected goals will not be easy, and it will require policy focus, redoubled efforts, and concerted efforts from all sides.
2.In the future, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year
According to the 2024 ** work report, in order to systematically solve the funding problems of some major projects in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years from this yearIt will be used specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and will be issued with one trillion yuan this year
This will be the fourth issuance of special government bonds. Historically, China has issued special treasury bonds several times: the first time it was used to replenish the capital of the four major banks. In August 1998, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 270 billion yuan of special treasury bonds with a maturity of 30 years to the four major state-owned commercial banks, and the funds raised were specially used to supplement the capital of the four major banks to meet the requirements of the Basel Accord.
The second time is used to buy foreign exchange and inject CIC. In June 2007, the Ministry of Finance was authorized to announce that it would issue US$200 billion of special treasury bonds to purchase foreign exchange to inject capital into CIC.
The third time was used for anti-epidemic and other related expenditures. In 2020, 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic treasury bonds were issued, of which 700 billion yuan was mainly invested in infrastructure projects, and 300 billion yuan was mainly used to protect employment, basic people's livelihood and market entities. Generally speaking, the special treasury bonds are not included in the deficit, and the logic lies in the fact that the special treasury bonds need to generate income in the fields to which they are invested, and there must be stable cash flows or assets corresponding to them, and the corresponding earnings should be used to repay debts.
At the beginning of this year, the 21st Century Business Herald exclusively reported that the local government is planning to reserve ultra-long-term special treasury bond projects, and the support direction is food security, energy security, industrial chain security, new urbanization, rural revitalization and other fields. The ultra-long-term special treasury bonds mentioned in the 2024** work report may be invested in the above-mentioned areas, and it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance method and timing of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the future
3.The deficit rate is arranged at 3 per cent
The deficit rate is also a target of market attention, which is equal to the deficit GDP, and China's deficit rate has been below or equal to the level of 3% for a long time. In 2020, the deficit rate exceeded 3% for the first time to reach 36%, down to 32%, and in 2022, the balance profits will be handed over in accordance with the law through specific state-owned financial institutions and franchised institutions, and the deficit ratio will drop to 28%。The deficit rate set in the 2023 ** work report is 3%, but in the fourth quarter of 2023, the deficit rate will reach 3 after the issuance of additional trillion treasury bonds8%
This year's deficit rate is planned to be arranged at 3%, down 08 percentage points; The size of the deficit is 406 trillion, down 082 trillion。However, considering that most of the trillions of treasury bonds issued last year will be used this year and that trillions of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued this year, the support for economic growth this year's ** bonds will be stronger than last year. According to the 2024 ** work report, it is expected that fiscal revenue will continue to resume growth this year, plus the transfer of funds, etc., the scale of general public budget expenditure will be 285 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 over the previous year1 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that4.The size of the deficit of 06 trillion yuan and the deficit rate of 3% imply that the nominal GDP growth rate will reach 7 in 2024About 3%.
4.The amount of special bonds will be increased by 100 billion yuan to 39 trillion
Special bonds need to be invested in projects with income, and the debt repayment ** is the special income or ** income corresponding to the project, so the special debt is not included in the deficit, and its scale is not subject to the deficit rate.
The special bonds were first issued in 2015 and have been steadily expanded since then. In 2020, the new special bond limit reached 3 for the first time75 trillion, 3 in 2021, 2022, and 202365 trillion, 365 trillion, 38 trillion. Among them, in 2022, the balance limit of 500 billion yuan will be revitalized for the first time, which will drive the annual quota to be expanded to 415 trillion yuan. The large-scale issuance and use of special bonds have played an important role in stabilizing investment and stabilizing the economy, but it has also objectively promoted the rise of local debt ratios.
**The work report proposes to arrange local ** special bonds 39 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over the previous year. On the one hand, to achieve an economic growth rate of 5%, special bonds are still needed, and special bond projects that started in the early stage still need financial support in the future, which requires special bonds to maintain a certain scale; On the other hand, the current local ** debt ratio has fallen into the warning range, which requires local bonds, especially special bonds, to slow down the pace of expansion.
5.There have been major changes in the anchor of social finance and M2
Generally speaking, the growth rate of M2 and social finance, GDP growth and deficit rate are all included in the ** work report as important quantitative indicators. According to the reporter, in 2009, M2 began to set quantitative numerical targets, in 2011 social finance began to write into the first work report, and in 2016 set quantitative targets.
In 2018, the work report adjusted the monetary policy to "maintain a reasonable growth in the scale of broad money M2, credit and social financing", and in the following years, it was adjusted to "the growth rate of M2 and the scale of social financing basically matched the growth rate of the nominal economy". In terms of sorting, M2 is in the front, and social integration is in the back.
The 2024 work report proposes that liquidity should be reasonable and abundant, and the scale and amount of social financing should match the expected goals of economic growth and the level of social financing。This new tone means that monetary policy needs to support both the recovery in prices and the return of economic growth to potential, especially the recovery in prices.
This expression has two new meanings: one is to rank the social financing scale index in front of the monetary ** amount, because this indicator is more closely related to economic growth; The second is to change the previous "nominal economic growth rate" to "economic growth and the expected target of economic growth", which can better coordinate the target requirements of economic growth and the first level, and emphasize that the first level is an important regulation and control target of monetary policy.
Under the above requirements, the growth rate of social finance and M2 still needs to maintain a relatively high level. According to research institutions, the potential economic growth rate of China's economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is 5About 5%. 。In this year's work report, the expected target of the level is mainly CPI, which is about 3% this year. According to the new anchoring method, the growth rate of social finance and M2 should be maintained at 8 this year5% or even slightly higher level
6.We will further implement the debt package plan
The 2024 ** work report proposes to coordinate the resolution and stable development of local debt risks, further implement a package of debt reduction plans, properly resolve the risks of existing debts, and strictly prevent new debt risks.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held on July 24 last year proposed that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks and formulate and implement a package of debt plans. The reporter learned thatLast year, local governments have formulated a "1+N" debt plan, of which 1 refers to the general debt plan and N refers to the debt sub-plan, but the sub-plans in different places are different and the number is also different, and the focus is on implementation this year
The market is highly concerned about whether there will be a new quota for special refinancing bonds. Historically, the special refinancing bond limit** has been subject to the balance limit. According to data from the Ministry of FinanceIn 2023, the national local ** debt limit is 421674300 million yuan, as of the end of December 2023, the balance of local ** debt in the country is 407373 billion yuan, and the space for the limit and balance is 143 trillion yuan。Due to the remarkable results of special refinancing bonds, the market expects that there is a high probability that new special refinancing bonds will continue to be approved this year. In addition, how to further optimize the financialization measures is also the focus of market attention.
In terms of medium and long-term reform, the 2024 ** work report saidEstablish a first-class debt management mechanism that is compatible with high-quality development, improve the full-caliber local debt monitoring and supervision system, and promote the transformation of local financing platforms by category.
The reporter learned that compared with the establishment of the debt monitoring system in August 2018, although the implicit debt did not grow, the concerned debt and operating debt grew rapidly. In fact, the platform company repays the principal and interest of the implicit debt in the name of the new operating debt, but it is difficult for the operating debt to meet the conditions required by the regulator, that is, the operating income corresponding to the operating project, the operating assets and the operating income covering the principal and interest of the debt.
Therefore, in the supervision of local bonds, not only hidden debts should be included, but also operating debts should also be included in the scope of supervision, which has been practiced in some places. Jiangsu Province said that in 2023, it will take the lead in developing and launching a comprehensive local debt supervision system in the country, and promote the full-caliber management of ** debt, hidden debt and financing platform operating debt in an integrated manner, forming a closed loop of work.
7.Optimize real estate policies
The Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China held on July 24 last year proposed to adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city's policies. Since then, many cities, including first-tier cities, have successively relaxed real estate restrictions, but the market response has not been optimistic, and the real estate market is still under pressure.
This year's ** work report proposed,It is necessary to optimize the real estate policy, and support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market。The market expects that there will still be policies to support real estate this year, for example, at the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have promoted the establishment of an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to provide financial support to eligible real estate projects.
The 2024 ** work report also proposes to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model. Increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, improve the basic system related to commercial housing, and meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified and improved housing.
Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the real estate market has moved fromIn the past development model that pursued speed and quantity, it has not adapted to the new requirements of high-quality development, and it is urgent to build a new development model
Specifically, in terms of concept, we must always adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, and focus on meeting the demand for rigid and improved housing, and strive to let the people live in good houses. In terms of institutional mechanisms, to:Establish a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money", starting from the scientific allocation of factor resources, and determine housing by people, land by housing, and money by housing, so as to prevent market ups and downs
The 2024 ** work report said that there is still a lot of room for development and improvement of China's urbanization, and it is necessary to thoroughly implement the new urbanization strategic actions, promote the two-way flow of various elements, and form a new pattern of urban-rural integration development. Accelerating the urbanization of the rural migrant population should be placed in a prominent position, the reform of the household registration system should be deepened, and the policy of linking "people, land and money" should be improved, so that willing migrant workers who move to cities and towns can settle down in cities and towns, and promote the equal enjoyment of basic urban public services by the permanent residents who have not yet settled down.
8.Revitalize the stock of credit and improve efficiency
The 2024 ** work report is proposed,Strengthen the dual adjustment of total volume and structure, revitalize stocks, improve efficiency, increase support for major strategies, key areas and weak links, and promote a steady and moderate decline in comprehensive social financing costs. Smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism to avoid the idling of capital precipitation. Vigorously develop science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance.
The reason why it is necessary to revitalize the stock is that not only can incremental credit support the real economy, but also revitalize inefficient stock loans will also help economic growth. At present, the stock of credit funds is much larger than the annual increment, and the enterprise assets formed by the stock loans and the derived monetary funds continue to play a role in the economic cycle. Revitalizing inefficient financial resources and improving the efficiency of the use of funds, although it will not be reflected in the increase of loans, can also inject new impetus into high-quality economic development.
China's money and credit stock is already very large, and the circulation of stock funds also has a role in economic growth, if the idle and inefficient use of stock funds can be fully utilized, even if the growth rate of new loans and money is slow, it can also strongly support the real economy," said a person close to the central bank.
According to the central bank, the credit structure of revitalizing the stock of loans requires an increase or decrease, of which the proportion of real estate loans and financing platform loans will decline, and loans for scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing, green development, and inclusive small and micro loans tend to rise. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on January 24 that the People's Bank of China will set up a credit market department to focus on five major articles.
9.More than 12 million new jobs were created in urban areas, highlighting the priority orientation of employment
In terms of the target of new urban employment, in 2004, it was first proposed to "add 9 million new urban jobs", and since then, the target has never been absent, and the target of new urban employment from 2017 to 2019 is more than 11 million, in 2020 it will be more than 9 million, and from 2021 to 2022 it will recover to more than 11 millionIn 2023, it will be raised to about 12 million people, and the target for creating more than 12 million jobs this year is slightly raised.
The surveyed urban unemployment rate covers the permanent urban population such as migrant workers, which can more comprehensively reflect the employment situation. From 2018 to 2019, the target is 55%, in 2020 it was about 6%, and from 2021 to 2023 it is 5It is about 5%, and the target for this year's surveyed unemployment rate is also 5About 5%.
The 2024 ** work report statedEmployment is the most basic livelihood of the people, and it is necessary to give priority to employment, strengthen the support of fiscal, tax, financial and other policies to stabilize employment, and increase the intensity of special policies to promote employment。Implement and improve policies such as the return of stable jobs, special loans, employment and social security subsidies, and strengthen support for enterprises in industries with large employment capacity. According to the 2024 ** work report, it is expected that more than 11.7 million college graduates will be graduates this year, and it is necessary to strengthen policies and measures to promote youth employment and optimize employment and entrepreneurship guidance services. Do a solid job in the employment of retired soldiers, migrant workers and other groups, and strengthen assistance for the disabled and other persons with employment difficulties.
10.We will vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces
The first task deployed in this year's ** work report is:We will vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forcesAccording to the report, we should give full play to the leading role of innovation, promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, accelerate new industrialization, improve total factor productivity, continuously shape new momentum and new advantages for development, and promote new leaps in social productivity.
The new quality of productivity is that innovation plays a leading roleIt is an advanced productive force with the characteristics of high technology, high efficiency and high quality, and is in line with the new development concept。Different from the main aspects of traditional productivity, the new quality productivity lies in creating a higher efficiency productivity level through continuous innovation in science and technology, resource allocation methods, production organization forms, etc., and innovation drive is reflected in the whole process of the development of new quality productivity.
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Editor: Zhong Hailing, Intern: Liao Jiayi.
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