In the past two days, the topic of ** record high has rushed to the hot search. The bond market, which is also hot, does not have so many voices of discussion and exclamation.
Today we're going to talk about the bond market.
The bond market is also crazy
At present, the most beautiful bond market is the 30-year Treasury bond ETF. In the first two months of this year, the increase was as high as 785%, a complete victory**, but also kill the vast majority of partial stocks**.
How crazy is this short squeeze of wavelength bonds? "The Song of the 30-Year National Debt" has come out to 30 version, and didn't drag it down either.
**Up, I'm also up, stocks and bonds are really fragrant;
** Fall, I also rise, money must rise to hedge.
When commodities rise, I also rise, and excess funds rise together;
When commodities fall, I also rise, and deflationary expectations should rise.
If the exchange rate rises, I will rise, and I will rise in the inflow of foreign capital;
When the exchange rate falls, I also rise, and recession debt is king.
The current bond rises, I also rise, and the futures and spot are in a bull market;
The current coupon falls, and I also rise, how can there be a difference in coupons.
On February 29, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 23275% (2 has been touched today.)30%）；The yield on the 30-year Treasury note also fell below 25%, to 24522%, which is a record low.
Treasury bond yield to maturity corresponds to the bond bull market. The intuitive feeling is that in 2023, the yield of some medium and long-term pure bonds** will exceed 5% or even 6%.
But it can also be seen from the position of the Treasury yield in the chart aboveThe current bond market is really not cheap
Taking history as a guide, the two previous lows in Treasury yields were in late April 2020 and mid-to-late October 2016, and then there was a relatively large wave of ** in the bond market.
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From this point of view, the current pure debt ** should improve the awareness of risk prevention.
*I don't know when it will come, but the sharp drop in long-term bonds last Friday was really scary. On the same day, the 30-year Treasury ** fell sharply by -116%, 10-year Treasury ***043%, which is more like a rehearsal of risk.
Yesterday, after the news that the state was going to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, the 30-year treasury bonds were again issued, because they were worried that the increase in the treasury bonds would have an impact, and some of the profitable funds ran first.
The root of the risk is crowding
Looking back at the debt bears that have appeared in the past two years, the mini-debt disaster in November and December 2022 is the most memorable.
In 2022, A-shares are a big bear market, and the ** market is also relatively poor, everyone is a little panicked, and a large amount of money has poured into the bond market, which has also caused the bond market to be very crowded. By the beginning of November, the epidemic control was relaxed, the market generally expected the economy to improve, and funds flowed back from safe-haven bonds, and the bond market began to adjust.
The bank wealth management products that have completed the transformation of net worth are also equivalent to bonds, and they have also ushered in the first net value loss. But the uncles and aunts don't understand it at all, and when they see that the bank they hold has lost money, they panic redeem it regardless of the cost, smashing the bond market into a big hole. At that time, it was even rumored that there were 40 billion bonds** manager kneeling and begging the bank's father not to redeem it, but the bank had to pay the irrational uncles and aunts, which was really helpless.
In that bond market, medium and long-term pure bonds** fell by -1 on average08%；Of course, many ** with high leverage levels failed to take into account liquidity, and the maximum drawdown exceeded -2%.
At present, the bond market has also reached a crowded level.
The A-share market has been in a bear market for two consecutive years, resulting in a large amount of money entering the bond market in search of stable returns. In June last year, after Pengyang's 30-year treasury bond ETF was listed, many partial stock managers began to use this 30-year treasury bond ETF to seek excess returns.
Recently, there are even some quantitative hedging, which are hedged by buying treasury bonds, instead of using stock indexes to hedge market risks, and staged a version of "Ming Xiu Plank Road Dark Chen Cang".
Funds from all walks of life are rushing to the bond market to find income, and crowding is inevitable, and now the yield of urban investment bonds is about the same as that of government bonds.
In such a crowded situation, once there is panic in the bond market, it is possible to have a stampede in the short term.
What to do? Which debt bases are more cost-effective?
Now the bond market is still shorting**, although I don't know when it will open**, but it is still necessary to guard against risks and take precautions.
This can be done in two ways:
The first is to reduce the duration, and the pure debt should be mainly allocated to short-term debt or short-term debt as much as possibleIn the bond market, short-term bonds will fluctuate significantly less than long-term bonds. To take an extreme example, the maximum drawdown of the 30-year Treasury bond index in the past 5 years is -948%, while the maximum drawdown of the short-term bond** index over the same period was only -076%。
Second, if you prefer medium and long-term pure bonds, you can choose a lower leverage ratio (the ratio of the market value of bonds to the net value). In fact, many medium and long-term pure bonds** have significantly reduced their leverage ratios at the end of the fourth quarter of last year to prevent risks. For example, the leverage ratio of BOCOM Yulon Pure Bond A, which is carefully selected in each lesson, has increased from 127 at the end of the third quarter of last year30% dropped to 109 at the end of the fourth season64%。Reducing the level of leverage can enhance the liquidity of the asset, and once the bond market comes, it can also better control the risk.
Of course, if you can tolerate a short-term drawdown of -2%, you can also ignore the risk of the bond market**, and look back, even if the big hole caused by the bond disaster in November and December 2022 will be filled in three months. The yield curve of pure debt has been upward, and will continue to hit new highs after each **.
As long as you can withstand short-term fluctuations, you will firmly hold it for a long time and eat the annual coupon income of bonds, which is fixed and will not be reduced because of the bear in the bond market.