Recently, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, made a judgment on the development trend of the entire automobile industry when talking about the first war. He believes that the top 10 car companies in terms of sales volume in 2024 will occupy nearly 85% of the market share, and eighty percent of brands will shut down in the next few years.
This prediction shows the cruelty of competition in the automobile market. However, as for whether it will develop according to Zhu Huarong's prediction, there is no conclusion.
First of all, the possibility of the top 10 car companies in terms of sales this year to occupy 85% of the market share.
The definition of "automakers" mentioned in the "Top 10 OEMs" is uncertain, so we will analyze the top 10 by group sales (sales data includes joint venture brands, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, etc.) and the top 10 sales of individual OEMs. The sales data of individual car companies mainly refers to the passenger car market.
If it is said that the top ten sales of the group, then the share has exceeded eighty percent a long time ago, forming a concentration of resources. Because, state-owned enterprises such as FAW and SAIC not only have their own passenger car business, but also joint venture brands, commercial vehicles and other sectors, and the combined sales of each segment are extremely high. According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales volume of the top 10 companies in automobile sales in 2018 was 2,503630,000 units, accounting for 89 percent of total car sales16%, up 06 percentage points. Among them, the top three are SAIC, Dongfeng, and FAW.
By 2023, the top 10 automobile companies will sell a total of 2,57150,000 units, little changed from five years ago. However, the share of total car sales fell by 4 percentage points to 854%。At the same time, there are also changes in the TOP10 rankings. With the expansion of the scale of new energy, BYD ranks third in terms of sales. Due to the intensification of the knockout competition of oil vehicles, the market share has shrunk, BAIC ranks first, and Brilliance falls out of the top 10.
If it is based on the sales ranking of a single car company, according to the sales data in 2023, it is slightly difficult for the share of the top 10 car companies in sales this year to reach 85%.
Since 2018, after the automobile market has shifted from an incremental market to a stock market, although there has been a trend of gradually concentrating resources on the top car companies, the market share of the top 10 car companies in terms of sales volume is just over half.
According to the statistics of Gasgoo Automobile Research Institute, the market share of the top 10 car companies in terminal sales is 569%, basically the same as the previous year. Among them, the top three are BYD, FAW-Volkswagen and Changan Automobile. Combined with the growth curve of the top 10 automakers last year, it is difficult to achieve a market share growth of about 30% this year. After all, in addition to BYD, the car companies on the list also have oil car business. While the sales volume of new energy of an automobile company continues to grow, the share of fuel vehicles is also shrinking correspondingly, so it is difficult to maintain a high growth rate in the growth of share and sales.
Perhaps, Zhu Huarong's "definition of car companies" has different interpretations.
Secondly, for "In the next few years, 80% of brands will shut downprediction
In fact, Zhu Huarong has mentioned that 80% of brands will be shut down and transferred (closed, suspended, mergers and acquisitions, and transferred) at the beginning of 2022. As of 2021, there are 85 brands in the traditional fuel vehicle market, of which 34 brands have monthly sales of less than 1,000 units; 9 brands die. In his view, with the acceleration of new energy vehicles, the competition in China's fuel vehicle market will become more intense, and 80% of Chinese brands will be shut down and transferred in the next 3-5 years.
In the past two years, "shutdown and transfer" has indeed become frequent, and has spread from the oil truck market to the new energy field. According to incomplete statistics from Gasgoo, in 2023 alone, there will be 77 car companies in the Chinese market, a decrease of nearly 10 from 2022. Among them, new energy brands such as Weimar and Aiways, which have a certain reputation and have achieved mass production, have also entered the stage of bankruptcy reorganization. In the field of oil vehicles, joint ventures or independent brands such as GAC Mitsubishi, GAC FCA, and Jinbei have also withdrawn from the Chinese market.
But at the same time, there is no shortage of new players in the automotive market. At least for now, the number of brands sold in China is only increasing. According to incomplete statistics from the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, as of the end of last year, there were 129 passenger car brands produced and sold in China.
In the next decade, the auto market will be shut down and transfers will be the norm. In this regard, the industry has reached a consensus. However, there are different opinions on how many businesses will survive.
There is a view that after the new energy market shifts from free and full competition to a relatively balanced state, there are only about 10 joint ventures, independent and new forces that finally enter the new energy finals.
However, there is also a view that driven by the capital market, there will be both entrants and exiters in the automotive industry.
Chen Yudong, advisor to the board of directors of Bosch Group and former president of Bosch China, believes that "perhaps the old ones have declined, and new ones have emerged". In fact, there has always been talk of "brand reduction" in the industry, but two or three decades later, there are more and more brands in the Chinese market.
However, it is certain that China's auto market cannot tolerate more than 100 brands competing in the same field, and it still needs to go through a stage of full free competition. When the market enters a relatively mature stage, the number of brands is bound to decrease. But how many companies will survive will be left to survive, but it is difficult to **. After all, the market is not something that can be manipulated by humans. The first battle of car companies