Investing in Xiaohongshu - Issue 183
Dusty and scarred, but we still have to believe.
Recently, all kinds of funds have poured in, and high-dividend blue-chip stocks have continued to hit record highs. Smart investors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks began to build positions in high-dividend stocks as early as the long journey after the earthquake in mid-2015, and finally ushered in the emergence of high-dividend strategies through long-term holding and waiting.
For more than a century, value investing gurus have used high dividend yields as an important aspect of stock selection. However, in the face of high-dividend stocks dominated by blue chips, the vast majority of ordinary investors will always face a psychological barrier that is difficult to overcome, that is, "how much more can you buy blue chip stocks?" Why don't I buy a 10 bagger? ”
As early as the Great Depression in the 30s of the 20th century, Fred Schweeder Jr. once had an answer to this question: speculation is an effort to turn small money into big money, but it may not succeed; Investing is an effort to avoid big money from turning into small money, and it should be successful.
As Warren Buffett said in his latest letter to shareholders, which companies will be winners and which will be losers is far more complicated than you might think. A stock price investment boss has also said that stepping on ten baggers is basically delusional, it will lead investors to overweight a specific ** at the worst time, delusion can not be done, the original intention of investment is not to buy ten baggers, investment mindfulness should be "appreciation and value preservation".
Short-term profiteering is difficult to achieve, and delusion is not possible.
As early as the Great Depression in the 30s of the 20th century, Fred Schweder Jr. once gave an example:
If you take $1,000 to Wall Street and try to turn it into $25,000 in a year's time, you're speculating. But if you go there with $25,000 and want to make $1,000 with it in a year (by buying 25 4% bonds), you're investing. In the first adventure, you have a 1:25 chance of success, while in the second adventure you have a small chance of not succeeding, about 1:25. ”
Speculation is an effort to turn a small amount of money into a big one, but it may not be successful; Investing is an effort to avoid big money from turning into small money, and it should be successful.
It is very important to recognize yourself in investment, and for an ordinary investor, the probability of being lucky enough to buy a ten-year bagger is very small. As Warren Buffett said in his 2024 letter to shareholders, "Some companies will emerge and prosper for a long time, while others may fall into trouble and become so-called 'sinking pits.'" However, which businesses are going to be winners and which are going to be losers is far more complicated than you might think. ”
Smart money does not seek short-term windfall profits, but strives for "principal security and satisfactory yields". Many local price investment bigwigs set their annualized rate of return at more than 8%, and the first thing that the high dividend yield strategy values is the safety of the principal, if the safety of the principal cannot be guaranteed, no matter how high the return will be automatically excluded from the investment.
A value investor with outstanding long-term investment performance once said: The fact that ordinary investors think that they can easily buy 10 baggers is basically a delusion, and delusion cannot be done. One of the consequences of dreaming of buying a "ten bagger" in the market is that it can overweight a particular **, sector or asset at the worst possible point, and when we think we have found the most effective way to get rich, we tend to see the current trend as an eternal prospect for the future, which is not the case.
The reason for the loss of most investors comes from the lack of self-awareness, trying to quickly turn small money into big money, so the safety is worrying, and the safety of the principal has been repeatedly eroded. The fate of the average investor is that when they are looking for excellent performance, they often struggle to achieve even average performance. The biggest challenge for investors is how to recognize themselves in the pursuit of higher performance but it is easy to do worse.
The high-dividend strategy is ergodic.
Long-term high dividends** have multiple meanings for investors: first, the valuation of companies with high dividend yields is not particularly expensive, because valuation is the denominator of dividend yields, if the valuation is expensive, the dividend yield must not be high; Second, the company's business model is not particularly bad, only companies with abundant cash can adhere to the long-term high dividend model, and companies with poor business models that need to continue to invest money to maintain competitiveness are difficult to achieve long-term high dividends; Third, the company has a good will to repay shareholders.
Many investors think that the high dividend yield strategy is just a helpless move to the current weak market, but the investment bosses adhere to this strategy regardless of bulls and bears, and never make investments that they don't understand, in order to enjoy long-term compound interest, after 20 years of accumulation of thousands of times the profit.
Investors with numeracy and economic common sense can achieve yields that outperform fixed income products in the long term by diversifying their funds across high-dividend blue-chip stocks. A high-dividend strategy that extends investments from bonds and preferred equity to the ** sector has the dual advantage of adding value: a higher average dividend level than premium bond interest and a long-term trend of rising market value due to the reinvestment of undistributed profits.
Never do irreversible things in investment, and assets that do not meet the safety requirements are excluded from investment at the first time. Qiu Guogen of Chongyang Investment once said that if a strategy is not traversal, it means that there is a possibility of liquidation or exit, and investment becomes a dangerous "Russian roulette".
Graham has said, "Small-cap stocks with poor quality are overvalued during a bull market, so not only do they lose a lot of money over the stocks that follow, but they are also slower across the board, and in most cases will never be fully valued." Clearly, Graham says, the lesson for smart investors is to avoid including these types of ** in their portfolios unless (in the eyes of active investors) they have a good reason to be cheap.
At the same time, Graham also believes that a carefully selected portfolio is actually "safe" if it can provide us with satisfactory overall returns when measured by a reasonable investment period.
The price investment bigwigs are all people who attach importance to investment protection. As Graham puts it, focus on research, and strive to make sure that the present value you get is larger than the market – a difference that can absorb future headwinds. From the outset, we were reluctant to compensate for the lack of current expectations and promises for the future.
But when the market goes crazy, high dividend yields** can make them unattractive due to overvaluations. As Graham puts it, "If an investor buys too high, those advantages evaporate." ”
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