In the past few days, the new express delivery regulations have sparked a lot of controversy, and many people have focused on the impact of post stations or door-to-door delivery on delivery people and customers, while ignoring the reform ideas behind this new regulation. In fact, this adjustment may be the beginning of the relevant departments to adjust the unhealthy atmosphere of one-sided pursuit of high efficiency that appeared in the domestic environment in the past few years. This means a shift in our domestic policy in a sense.
Once upon a time, the "cult of efficiency" in our country began in the whole society. Whether it is the 996 of the workers or the "humanoid robot" on the production line, or the national delivery of express money, and the time limit of ten minutes of takeaway delivery, our pursuit of efficiency is unique on this planet.
According to the general understanding, improving efficiency should be accompanied by better income and shorter working hours, but the current situation in China is true:NopeReduced efficiency, longer working hours and no increased revenue. What's going on? Why is this happening.
The vast majority of industries in which these phenomena occur are capital-intensive or dominant, and capital, out of the instinct of maximizing profits, uses various tools such as machine algorithms, artificial intelligence, and automation equipment to continuously pursue efficiency improvement and cost reduction. And because the current market labor is quite sufficient, there is no fear of personnel turnover.
In the years leading up to the pandemic, the main concern for the business community was labor shortages, and labor shortages were one of the biggest challenges for businesses. Today, we lead the world in manufacturing capacity, but the market has changed dramaticallyIn some countries, anti-globalization and de-sinicization have caused our production capacity to partially exceed and under-operate, and the labor force will naturally become redundantThe current employment situation is already very challenging.
In the face of the new situation, the idea of continuing to pursue excessive efficiency and lower costs may no longer be correct. At present, China is working in two directions, one is to engage in industrial upgrading, provide high-tech and high-value-added products, and maintain international competitive advantages. In addition, the employment environment will be optimized internally, and employment will be transferred from high-efficiency employment environment to normal efficiency industries, so as to create as many jobs as possible. To put it simply,That is, to find a way to let two people do the original one's job.
At the beginning of last year, the state issued a cash-for-work regulation for the first timeCash-for-work projects should be organized and implemented in accordance with the requirements of being able to use manual labor and not use machinery as much as possible, and organizing local people to work as much as possible without professional construction teamsAs we all know, the efficiency of labor is lower than that of machinery, and the efficiency of local people is lower than that of the construction team. This bucking trend also represents the beginning of the relevant departments to try in this regard.
Compared with the international competition that the manufacturing industry may have to participate in, it is highly concerned about personnel efficiency and product cost, and it is not good to intervene more for the time being. The domestic service industry, represented by the wholesale and retail trade and the logistics industry, can boldly try to reform and add more jobs.
In the express delivery industry, there were 3 million couriers in 2018, and 50.7 billion express parcels were posted, and according to this efficiency, 132 billion pieces will be sent in 2023, and about 7.81 million couriers will be needed to deliver them. In fact, in 2023, there will be about 4.7 million couriers in the country. In contrast, efficiency gains have eliminated 3 million jobs. The recently introduced new express delivery policy is actually thatReturn to the state of around 2018, either hit ** or home delivery, if strictly enforced can create the least10,000 jobs, which may be what the New Deal is all about.
Other than that. Now the efficiency of domestic e-commerce has reached the extreme, and the original 4-6 level sales link has been compressed to the most simplified link of manufacturers-e-commerce-customers, and a large number of jobs have been lost while reducing part of the selling price. If there are some reasonable policies to transfer some of the online sales back to the physical business, a large number of jobs will also be created. In the same way, the relationship between takeaway and dine-in is the same.
Some people may be worried about whether it will lead to an increase in express delivery**, I think it maybe, but this kind of improvement should be a few cents or dollars per order. For our people who receive less than 100 express deliveries per capita per year, the impact may be 100 yuan a year.
There are many challenges in our domestic economy at the moment, and the severe employment situation is the most pressing pressure among them. If this problem is allowed to develop, it will pose a very big threat to overall social stability and development. So, I'm very happy to see more of this kind of adjustment.
Therefore, please understand the starting point and difficulties of the country, and also support those who need employment in difficult situations, we bear a small cost, and the jobs created may be able to help their families tide over the difficulties and usher in a turning point in their lives. The job you disdain may be a lifeline for them to struggle in a muddy life!
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