In the face of today's high housing prices, many people can't help but sigh that if they had known that housing prices would be like this, they would have bought a property even if they had everything they had. Indeed, if you had taken advantage of the opportunity in your early years and bought a few properties, you might have easily achieved financial freedom today. However, we must recognise that while housing prices in the past were more affordable than they are now, they were still a heavy burden for most people at the time. Still, those who were brave enough to buy a home now not only don't have to worry about housing anymore, but the mortgage pressure that was once felt is negligible today. 
Historically, in 1989 prices in Shanghai had soared to 2,300 yuan per square meter, while in Beijing, not to be outdone, prices hovered between 1,600 yuan and 1,900 yuan per square meter. Although compared with the housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai today, which are often more than 100,000 square meters, the first at that time seemed more reasonable, but considering that the monthly salary of college students at that time was generally only sixty or seventy yuan, such housing prices were still prohibitive. In the face of soaring housing prices, the state has to introduce relevant policies to regulate and control, which is similar to today's real estate market regulation. However, the price of housing after the regulation did not go as expected**, but rose all the way and continues to this day.
So, for people who want to buy a house in 2024, now that house prices are **, where will house prices go in 5 years? Will it collapse like many people, or will it continue the trend of the past? In fact, Wang Jianlin, a business magnate who has long since faded out of the real estate market, has already given his opinion.
In 2017, in a program, the host asked Wang Jianlin about the trend of housing prices in the next 10 years. Wang Jianlin humorously asked the audience whether they would prefer to hear the truth or falsehood. At that point in time, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities were climbing rapidly, and Wang Jianlin made it clear that he was not optimistic about the prospects for housing prices in these cities. At the time, this view raised a lot of skepticism.
Wang Jianlin said that in the next ten years, housing prices in China's first- and second-tier cities will continue to be **. Behind this is his deep understanding of China's urbanization process. In the future, about 200 million people will move into cities, most of which will flow to these first- and second-tier cities. And for those third- and fourth-tier cities with a net outflow of population, especially county seats, the space for housing prices** will become quite limited.
Obviously, time has proved the accuracy of Wang Jianlin's **. Nowadays, the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities has seen an obvious phenomenon of price and no market, and second-hand housing is even larger. With the continuous outflow of population, there is little room left for housing prices in these cities, and they may even face risks. At the same time, although housing prices in first- and second-tier cities have increased due to the continuous inflow of population, the growth rate has slowed down significantly under the state's regulatory policies.
From this incident, it is not difficult to see why Wang Jianlin's Wanda Group chose to abruptly withdraw from the real estate market in 2017, adopting a strategy of discounting and selling off, and gradually divesting its real estate business.
From Wang Jianlin's words, we can gain insight into his pessimistic attitude towards the future of the real estate industry. However, let's face the fact that house prices aren't going to be big enough anytime soon. Especially for those first- and second-tier cities where the population continues to flow in, housing prices are still possible. However, subject to the regulation of national policies, housing prices will tend to stabilize in the future. Depending on changes in market demand, housing prices in some cities may gradually fall in a stable manner, while others may continue to maintain a moderate** trend.
In addition, Li Ka-shing, who is known as the richest man in Asia, is no longer optimistic about the prospects of the real estate industry. He made it clear that the real estate sector is likely to struggle in the coming years, as the housing boom of the past few years has consumed a lot of demand for home purchases, leading to a possible lack of demand in the future. Li Ka-shing holds this view because he believes that the current housing market is abnormally high and there is a surplus of housing, which further exacerbates the depletion of demand.
As a result, Li Ka-shing likens the future development of the real estate industry to the "last copper plate", meaning that while there are still opportunities for the industry to make profits, profit margins have shrunk dramatically, and the accompanying risks are increasing. This is a universal rule, and it is impossible for any industry to maintain high growth at a high rate, and the real estate industry is no exception. The real estate industry has experienced rapid growth over the past few decades, but now, the problem of housing surplus and exorbitant housing prices has become increasingly prominent. More importantly, the state's regulatory policies for the real estate industry have changed, and they are no longer as vigorously supported as in the past. This also led Li Ka-shing to decide that although there was still room for profit in the real estate industry, he chose to quit.
However, Li Ka-shing is optimistic about the development of the real estate industry in first- and second-tier popular cities. According to him, the three major factors that determine the value of a house are location, location, or location. This is also reflected in his practical actions, and Li Ka-shing still holds land banks and projects to be developed in a number of popular cities. This shows that although he is pessimistic about the overall outlook for the real estate industry in the future, he is still confident in the trend of house prices in some hot cities.
From Wang Jianlin and Li Ka-shing's unique insights on the real estate market, we can see that although they have very different strategies, they have the same goals. Both business giants believe that housing prices in the most popular first- and second-tier cities will continue to see a continuous influx of people over the next five years, as they are actively introducing bailout policies. Real estate in these cities will be as precious as "**."
However, for third- and fourth-tier cities with declining populations, the trend of housing prices will be very different. Housing prices in these cities may stagnate or even **. Especially in areas with high population losses, the sale of properties will become more common, and it is not uncommon for houses to have "cabbage prices". Nowadays, housing prices in cities such as Hegang, Yumen and Fuxin have become quite "cabbage prices" in the eyes of many buyers.
This market fragmentation reflects the complexity and diversity of the real estate industry. For investors and home buyers, understanding this differentiation and being flexible will be key to their success in the real estate market of the future.