WeChat***Win Now Intelligence Station (ID: GH 62C3DC96EE87), Author: Echo, CYY, title picture from: Visual China's goal of 10 billion sugar-free ready-to-drink tea seems to have been reached in advance in 2023: Oriental Leaves, which has been grinding a sword for ten years, will become a "quasi-10 billion club member" in 2023, Suntory is still stable, and there are cross-border bigwigs such as Yili and Tsingtao Beer with the participation of new products, and new products are emerging in ......an endless stream
The spring sugar and wine party to be held in Chengdu will presumably have a large number of new brands and new products of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea, which makes people dream back to the 100 groups of sparkling water in 2019. On this occasion, based on the relevant data in the offline retail monitoring network, we hope to be able to interpret the category of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea as comprehensively as possible: how will sugar-free ready-to-drink tea be in 2023?Will the market be better in 2024?When we look further into the future, will sugar-free ready-to-drink tea be a flash in the pan or an evergreen beverage evergreen?
It is necessary to explain a little about the data related to sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in the digital reading of this article: based on the retail monitoring network, "sugar-free ready-to-drink tea" is not a separate category at present, but only a collection of all products marked as "sugar-free" after the products in the category of ready-to-drink tea are cleaned and divided into "sugar-free" and "sugar-free". Therefore, the data on this collection (hereinafter referred to as "sugar-free ready-to-drink tea"), including the group's brand ranking, market share, top SKU list, regional business preference, etc., are only for this collection, and are hereby supplemented.
1. "Rushing" sugar-free ready-to-drink tea
In terms of data, based on the overall beverage, from January 2022 to December 2023, the overall ready-to-drink tea peaked by about 14% year-on-year in 2022, and increased to a peak of more than 17% in the same period of the peak season in 2023;As a part of ready-to-drink tea, sugar-free ready-to-drink tea has also increased from a peak market share of about 3% in the peak season of 2022 to a peak market share of about 5% in 2023.
On the other hand, the seasonal characteristics of ready-to-drink tea consumption are more obvious. During January of this year, the overall ready-to-drink tea category ushered in a low point in the annual share, including sugar-free ready-to-drink tea, there was a market share fluctuation of about 50%, speculating that it may be due to the fact that around the Spring Festival, consumers' beverage consumption decisions are more from the perspective of families, traditional carbonated and fruity drinks are easier to be chosen by consumers, and the festive expansion of market consumption demand and the festive change of consumer preference have jointly led to the occurrence of this fluctuation.
Within the ready-to-drink tea category, the share of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in ready-to-drink tea showed a significant upward trend, increasing from 16% to 32%. It can be seen that for the increase of ready-to-drink tea in the overall beverage market share, the growth brought by sugar-free ready-to-drink tea is the biggest driving force. At the same time, the "big premise" and "small premise" of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea are growing simultaneously, and effective differentiation is done in the growing categories, indicating a broader growth space.
1.Head group and brand.
From 2022 to 2023, the changes in the CR10 of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea are mainly concentrated in the 7th 10th place, while the top 6 are relatively stable and the ranking has not changed. Among them, the market share of Nongfu Spring and Suntory has an absolute advantage over the rest of the brands. At the same time, the gap in market share between Nongfu Spring and Suntory, the two leading brands in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market, is also very significant.
In further research on the TOP20 SKUs in 2022 and 2023, it can also be found that the expansion trend of Nongfu Spring Oriental Leaf in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market mentioned above is very obvious in the improvement of the ranking from 2022 to 2023.
On the one hand, Nongfu District occupies eight of the top 10 SKUs in terms of sales, replaced by two Suntory products and one of Master Kong's products. On the other hand, the last 10 products in the TOP20 SKUs have also undergone significant changes, among which the increase in the proportion of Suntory and Genki Forest products is related to the expansion of Nongfu Spring in the top 10 products.
1. Coca-Cola and Dayido have disappeared from the list, replaced by ripe fruits that have received more attention recently.
2.Characteristics of the format.
According to the relevant data in the offline retail monitoring network, the share of ready-to-drink tea in small business channels, namely convenience stores, grocery stores and small supermarkets, is relatively high, while the proportion in hypermarkets and large supermarkets is relatively low. The distribution of the market share of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in different formats is also roughly the same as that of ready-to-drink tea, with the main channel of small formats and the performance of large format channels to be improved.
3.Regional preferences and differences.
Based on the regional differences in sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in different regions of the country.
Vertically, except for the relatively low share of Q1, sugar-free ready-to-drink tea performed well in the remaining three quarters.
Horizontally,The market share of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in central China was higher than that of other regions throughout the year, especially in the two quarters of Q3 and Q4, there is a very significant gap with its proportion in Northeast China and North China.
Compared with the overall proportion of ready-to-drink tea, the proportion of consumers who like to drink sugar-free ready-to-drink tea is the highest among beverage drinkers in central China. According to the annual average of the proportion of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in central China, the proportion of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea of about 6% is basically one-third of the proportion of ready-to-drink tea in central China of about 17%, which shows the importance of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea to the ready-to-drink tea market in central China.
In addition, the proportion of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in northern regions such as Northeast China and North China fluctuated seasonally, with a significant increase in Q2 and Q3 with higher temperatures, and a smaller gap with Central China, while the proportion decreased significantly in Q1 and Q4 with low temperatures. On the whole, its share in southern regions such as East China and South China fluctuated relatively little.
It should be noted thatThere are also great differences in the total consumption of beverages in different regions, and the local beverage market size should be combined to understand the regional differences in sugar-free ready-to-drink tea.
Further observation of the sales of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) and the rest of the country can be seen, as can be seen in the high acceptance of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea by consumers in first-tier cities.
According to the changes in the overall market share in 2023, the proportion of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea in first-tier cities has always been ahead of other regions with an advantage of 1% to 2%, which shows that it is the core position of the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market. In recent years, more and more consumers have paid more attention to health in their daily lives, and this change in consumption concept and the upgrading of demand are particularly significant among consumers in first-tier cities.
4.*Obi case.
Judging from the trend of the proportion of sales of products in different segments,At present, about 80% of the products in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market are 4 5 yuan, and the current sales proportion of the rest of the ** segment is relatively low. Among them, only the sales proportion of 5 7 yuan products has increased slightly since Q1 2023, increasing to more than 10%, or related to the trend of large specifications, and the proportion of other ** products is still fluctuating within 10%.
The changes in the number of SKUs in different segments in the past two years can better reflect the main position of 4 5 yuan products in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market. Compared with the proportion of sales, the gap between the number of 4 5 yuan and other ** products during Q1 in 2022 is relatively small, but the proportion of sales shows a faulty lead. Subsequently, the number of SKUs in the 4 5 yuan segment is substantial, and new products continue to be launched, and by the end of 2023, the number of SKUs has reached about 140. The number of SKUs of the remaining ** products has changed relatively little, and the sales proportion of 5 7 yuan products can increase to a certain extent under the condition that the number of SKUs is relatively stable, which is also worth paying attention to.
Further observation of the average price trend per 100 milliliters of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea shows that the average price per 100 milliliters is basically positively correlated with the first segment, and the average price per 100 milliliters of most **segment products fluctuates little and remains at a relatively stable ** level. Products above 10 yuan are different, and the average price per 100 milliliters has reached 2It is about 5 yuan, but it has fallen to about 2 yuan in Q2 and Q3 in 2023, and then rebounded in Q4.
2. In 2024, how to "roll" sugar-free ready-to-drink tea?
In the past two years, we obviously feel that sugar-free ready-to-drink tea has begun to run faster and faster. Many dealers receive information about new sugar-free ready-to-drink tea products from large and small brands almost every week, and they have begun to think about their plans for the year.
Regarding the launch of new products, based on the data in the offline retail monitoring network, the time of the launch of new sugar-free ready-to-drink tea products in 2022 and 2023 is closely related to its overall market trend. Q1 is also a period when the number of new products launched is generally small, while the number of new products launched during Q2 and Q3 has increased explosively. Especially in April and May, before the summer season, the number of new products launched for sugar-free ready-to-drink tea often reaches the highest value of the year.
At the same time, considering the group ownership of new SKUs, it can be noted that their distribution is relatively scattered, and there are many "newcomers" including new brands and cross-track brands.
As the "big brother" in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market, Nongfu Spring and Suntory have softened a lot in the pace of new product launches compared with new brands, launching 5 and 4 new products respectively, which are in the second echelon in terms of quantity, and there are also other brands such as Bubble and Rangcha in the second echelon.
In the first echelon is Itoyuan, which has launched 11 new products, and Cha Xiaokai, which has launched 9 new products, of which Cha Xiaokai, as a new face who has entered the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea track at the beginning of 2023, has performed very positively.
In addition, it is the third echelon composed of brands such as Yinlu, Baiyunshan, and Dongpeng Beverage, which have launched a small number of new products, and is characterized by the majority of cross-border brands, and most of them are still in their infancy in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market.
At present, the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market has achieved a certain scale, and there are some well-known brands in the minds of consumers in many first-tier cities, and the category mentality has gradually opened; However, in the next stage of category expansion, more companies need to join in to accelerate the growth of the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market from all aspects. So, how else can sugar-free ready-to-drink tea be "rolled"?
1.Trend 1: Capacity upgrades make them more cost-effective.
Based on the perspective of the supply side, among the different specifications of SKUs for sugar-free ready-to-drink tea on sale in 2023, (400ml, 500ml) is a common specification in the beverage category, and the number of SKUs on sale will maintain a relatively stable growth; The number of small-sized SKUs (within 400ml) remained stable, but decreased slightly from the perspective of proportion; On the contrary, the number and proportion of large-format SKUs (over 500ml) have both increased.
Based on the perspective of the demand side, the sales volume of (400ml, 500ml) specifications has declined from Q1 to Q4, and its sales proportion has decreased by about 9%; The specifications of more than 500ml are menacing, and their sales account for 735% increased to about 17%, and almost all of them took over the decline in the proportion of sales of (400ml, 500ml) specifications.
The trend of bottled beverages is not limited to sugar-free ready-to-drink tea, and the ...... of AD calcium milk and original iced black tea are not limitedMany classic products are getting bigger and bigger, and the long-term accumulated word-of-mouth is converted into sales with more favorable unit prices. Among the sugar-free ready-to-drink teas, the 2023 Nongfu Spring Oriental Leaves Green Mandarin Pu'er, Jasmine Tea, Oolong Tea and Black Oolong Tea flavors provide a choice of 900ml, and the price is about 6 7 yuan per bottle; Suntory has 1The price of 25L oolong tea is about 8 9 yuan.
On the premise of not destroying the original ** system, generally speaking, large capacity represents a lower unit price per 100 milliliters but a higher selling price, mainly for "regular customers". At present, large bottles of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea are more like an advance layout after companies have spare time, for example, Oriental Leaf and Suntory have chosen the best-selling flavors for capacity upgrades.
The large-capacity upgrade of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea is different from other categories: large-capacity products such as soda and juice focus on a more cost-effective gathering and sharing scene, but in the current Chinese market, bottled ready-to-drink tea is not so suitable for this scene. The way Oriental leaves and Suntory's large-packaged products are drunk in daily life is also different.
2.Trend 2: In terms of taste, make good tea & make good tea drinks.
Based on data from the offline retail monitoring networkAmong the main typical flavors of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea, green orange, jasmine and oolong tea dominateOn the one hand, this is closely related to consumers' preference for the taste of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea products that are "refreshing, not bitter, and sweet"; On the other hand, at present, China's sugar-free ready-to-drink tea concentration is relatively high, and the main flavors chosen by leading companies account for most of the country, and consumers' real taste preferences may not have been fully satisfied - referring to the Japanese market, in the relatively more mature market, although oolong and jasmine flavors are still popular with many consumers, there are also many fans of green tea, barley tea and other flavors.
It is also worth paying attention to,The share of the three will change significantly during 2023. Among them, jasmine flavor Q1 accounted for a slightly lower proportion among the three, but Q2 and Q3 maintained a trend of market expansion, perhaps because jasmine flavor is more refreshing and more refreshing in the hot summer. The market share of oolong tea flavor was more significant, and the market share of green mandarin flavor was less volatile - this may be because the green mandarin flavor is more intense, although it is not as refreshing as jasmine, but it is suitable for lovers to be hot and cold all year round.
Observing the direction of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea taste innovation, we see two directions:One is to work tea, and the other is to learn from new tea drinks, using tea as a base with other flavors to become a better drink.
Taste: Tea
At present, the SKUs of the leading enterprises are relatively simple, and the main flavors of large sales are jasmine, pu'er, and oolong, all of which are based on more common tea types; The concepts of black tea and green tea are often only used, and are generally no longer subdivided into more detailed classifications such as Longjing and Biluochun. However, with the continuous improvement of the brand and the first chain, some large enterprises are also trying to launch new subdivided tea varieties under the condition that the main SKU is relatively stable.
Some innovative brands prefer to launch some relatively niche teas from the beginning, and often seem to find inspiration from the hot spots of new tea drinks, such as duck feces fragrance and phoenix single fir - but in fact, duck feces fragrance, one of the phoenix single fir varieties, is an oolong tea.
China is the only country in the world that produces six major types of tea: green tea, white tea, yellow tea, green tea, black tea, and black tea.
However, it is precisely because there is tea everywhere and everyone drinks tea, China's tea chain has long been far away from standardized production, the degree of industrialization is low, the quality of tea is uneven and the evaluation system is vague, to connect to the downstream bottled beverages such an industrialized, standardized production mode with high requirements, it takes a lot of energy to transform the upstream chain, especially the tea raw materials: with the continuous upgrading of consumers' demand for health and product flavor, more and more new products choose to use tea production instead of semi-finished tea powder.
For large factories with large demand for tea, it is safer to choose large categories with relatively complete chains, and at the same time, large factories also have more investment in the upstream: Suntory has long laid out tea gardens in Fujian, the main production area of oolong tea, and has begun to control the quality of oolong tea from tea seed screening, tea farmer education, and scientific planting; However, for new brands, it is difficult to make an advantage in expanding the category as a leading player, but through some popular small varieties, it may be possible to form characteristics through flavor and tea varieties and quickly open up the situation - but this also means that the more fragile ** chain may become the weakness of large-scale expansion in the future.
Fortunately, the rapid development of ready-made new tea drinks has promoted the development of the entire tea industry chain in a sense: some professional tea merchants have emerged, scientific management at the planting end, and upgrading blending technology at the manufacturing end, which can now also provide more convenience for the production of bottled tea.
Flavors: Base mash-up
When we discuss sugar-free ready-to-drink tea, we are essentially innovating in the category of packaged beverages, rather than simply discussing tea innovation. Therefore, in terms of taste innovation, in addition to developing more special tea varieties, we can also think: what can be done with a bottle of tea-based, 0 sugar, and delicious beverages?
Iced black tea, which has been sold for many years and is popular all over the world, is a tea drink with a sweet and sour fruit flavor of lemon that may be more than a tea flavor; Many popular grape teas and peach teas in the new tea drink store make people see the plump pulp, but in essence, they are also tea-based fruit teas. The sweet and sour fruit tea has long proved the national degree of taste. The mix and match of elements such as tea + fruit, herbs, and bubbles has been welcomed by a lot.
However, as long as real fruit juice is added, when it comes to the sugar in the fruit, in principle, it is not strictly "absolute" sugar-free ready-to-drink tea. Although "0 sugar" can still be marked according to the current national standards for food and beverages, with the upgrading of health awareness and the popularization of various sugar knowledge, with reference to overseas markets, fruit juice sugar-free tea may face stricter industry standards in the future, and enterprises need to prepare in advance at the R&D end.
3.Trend 3: Functional, with scenes to cut into "light health".
In fact, most of the tea drinks contain tea polyphenols, theanine, caffeine, tea polysaccharides and other ingredients, which have antioxidant and refreshing effects.
However, in general, the current consumer awareness of these ingredients is not clear, and more of them have only a general concept of health based on traditional culture. At a time when the health track is becoming more and more volatile and consumers' rational understanding of other active ingredients is gradually rising, it is still difficult for tea to play the "functional" card.
This does not mean that tea is completely incapable of mentioning "functionality". At this stage, sugar-free ready-to-drink tea can be combined with specific scenarios to cut into the "light health" track with scenes. For example, a certain brand of black oolong tea and a hot pot brand launched a joint brand, focusing on relieving greasy in the hot pot scene; A brand focuses on boosting and charging ...... in outdoor and sports scenes
3. Involution intensifies, has the core problem been solved?
Sugar-free ready-to-drink tea isn't the first fast-growing category we've observed over the years
The outbreak of sparkling water in 2019 has made the concept of "0 sugar, 0 fat and 0 calories" deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, but sugar control and sugar reduction are not only beverages, although the mentality of sugar reduction has spread from sparkling water to all corners of food and beverage and even freshly prepared catering, now the whole people seem to see a peace of mind when they see a big "0" on the packaging or menu, but the sustainability of the sparkling water itself is facing challenges;
In 2022, sports drinks will grow rapidly in the short term with the outbreak of electrolyte water, but in fact, the number of sports people has already increased with the update of the concept of healthy life, even if the popularity of electrolyte water will decline in 2023, the whole track is experiencing a relatively stable growth ......
The new products of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea are frequently released and the track is growing rapidly, but whether it can eventually become an evergreen category still depends on whether consumers can continue to buy it, and the focus is on the position of this category in the hearts of consumers, that is, the mind. The mind of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea is in**? For a long time, the positioning of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea has often wandered between "water substitute" and "tea-flavored drink".
If you do "water replacement": the lighter the taste of bottled drinks, the more you can focus on quenching thirst, and the longer the life cycle of the product may be - but since you want to do "water replacement", you can't just be close to taste, you also need to be close, and "water replacement" is likely to have to roll up wildly in the future.
If you make "tea-flavored beverages": strengthen the concept of beverages, make the taste and hedonic taste more "heavy", and solve other plus problems such as delicious or functional, but the introduction of new products is usually fast-paced and the life cycle may be shorter; Especially at a time when cost performance is getting more and more attention, although more characteristic labels belonging to "tea-flavored beverages" can retain premium space, they put forward higher requirements for the accuracy of innovation, creativity and brand personality of enterprises.
The sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market may be far from mature, the category mentality still needs to be explored, the extreme left and the extreme right are certainly not the answer, whether an industry can really take root in the end, but also depends on whether the "contestants" are willing to do their duty, healthy competition, and provide value for consumers: a single flower is not spring, and a hundred flowers can bloom in spring.
Sugar-free ready-to-drink tea does not need to be rolled up, but the contestants should roll it well in 2024 in order to make a good product.
WeChat***Immediately win the intelligence station (ID: gh 62c3dc96ee87), author: echo, cyy This content is the author's independent point of view and does not represent the position of Tiger Sniff. Do not do without permission**, please contact hezuo@huxiu for authorizationcom
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