The development of the war is faster than the reasoning, and in less than a week, I have to publish another analysis of the battle situation to see the future development trend of the war situation.
February 29, 2024 Russian forces continue their relentless offensive on the Avdeyevka front. Yesterday, Russian troops occupied the settlements of Bertich (1), Orlivka (2) and Torenkoye (3), and the offensive is progressing very quickly compared to 2023.
A closer analysis of these three settlements reveals that, albeit weak, Bertich is by far the most important, since it is located in the next line of defense of Ukraine.
February 29, 2024 Bertich and Orlivka have fallen, but fighting continues in the western suburbs. If the Russian army captures the western part of Bertic, the second line of defense of Ukraine will be broken through, and the Ukrainian Air Force will have to retreat to the third line of defense.
Both Orlivka and Torenkoye are located in front of the second line of defense, the assembly of Ukrainian troops behind the first line. The loss of these two villages is primarily a certain psychological blow to the morale of Ukraine.
In addition, the capture of Torenkoye also gave the Russian army the opportunity to advance westward between the former 1st and 2nd lines of defense, opening the door to an attack on the Pervomaisk flank (4 below).
It is possible that the Ukrainian army will try to create a temporary line of defense a few kilometers east of the road (yellow line) between Umansk and Netelov. Because this road is one of the last supply roads for the troubled Ukrainian army.
But with no fortifications and a lack of soldiers, the line is porous, and the road should have been completely under the threat of Russian drone and artillery fire.
In the north, the Russian army can spread west from the bridgehead in Bertich and will force the Ukrainian army to withdraw from Semenivka between Bertich and Orlivka, otherwise it will face encirclement.
The Ukrainian army may try to slow down the offensive of the Russian army by establishing a temporary defense before Umansk and between Novovoselivka Perche and Novovo ** Mutivka.
In the south, the Russian army resumed its offensive on Neversk and reached the outskirts of the settlement. If Nevelske is captured by the Russian army, this will give the Russian army several options:
To the north, the Russian army could attack the Ukrainian defenders on Pervomaisk's flank; To the south, Kra Horivka is at gunpoint.
The goal of the next stage of the Russian army is to reach the red shadow line.
At the second stage, the goal is to reach the purple hatched line and capture all the territory east of the next line of defense, at least north of Kalivka.
In the south, the objective is to occupy Pervomaiske, Netailove and the vast buffer zone west of Netailove and Nevelske.
The time frame for the first phase may be as little as one week, and the time frame for the second phase may take two weeks.
If the Russian army is fast enough, it can successfully complete this plan during the Russian elections on March 15-17.
In addition, if the Russian army is able to capture the ocheretyne in the north, this will bring the same goal as it is now in Berdych, breaking through the third line of defense of the Ukrainian army. That's just a village or two away.
If the above offensive of the Russian army succeeds as planned, it will have a buffer zone at least 20 kilometers deep a month after the capture of Avdeyevka.
The front line will move up to 30 kilometers to the west, gaining further territory with a total area of 6-700 square kilometers, which is a huge improvement compared to 2023.