Soldiers of the Swedish Amphibious Forces participate in a military exercise on a fast assault boat on the island of Marsten in Stockholm, Sweden, in September 2023. This is the first major military exercise between the US and Swedish forces after the NATO summit in Vilnius. Visual China.
Recently, Russia's Putin delivered a state of the nation address to both houses of parliament in Moscow. He issued a stern warning to the West that "the dangerous words and deeds of the West in foreign policy are triggering a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the danger of the destruction of civilization."
Earlier, the Hungarian parliament officially approved Sweden's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Sweden will become the 32nd member of NATO. On the other hand, France's Macron suddenly released astonishing remarks, saying that the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine was not ruled out.
Experts point out that NATO's new round of expansion has led to a growing smell of gunpowder with Russia. In the context of the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although the conflict between the two sides will not break out in many places, the security situation in Europe has been damaged as a result. Recently, some European politicians and scholars have begun to reflect on whether NATO's current security concept really means "good" for their own country.
Southern** Beijing-based reporter Ling Xi Wu Binbin.
Why did Hungary finally release Sweden?
Hungary's attitude towards Sweden's accession to NATO is not a sudden change, in fact, it is simply "waiting for the moment".
Putin's State of the Union address lasted more than two hours, the longest ever. He said that with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russia will strengthen its armed forces on its western borders to counter the threat of "further NATO expansion." Putin warned the West, not forgetting the fate of Napoleon and Hitler, that attempts to make a new intervention in Russia could provoke a large-scale conflict with the use of nuclear **.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Sweden and Finland have abandoned their long-standing policy of neutrality and military non-alignment and announced their application for NATO. In July 2022, NATO officially launched the process of northward expansion to absorb Finland and Sweden. According to the protocol, all NATO members must unanimously agree to admit new members. Finland was allowed to join NATO in April last year. After Turkey ratified the bill on Sweden's accession to NATO in January this year, Hungary became Sweden's last hurdle in "accession".
Hungary** submitted a bill to parliament in July 2022 on Sweden's accession to NATO, but the voting process has not been put on the agenda due to differences between the two countries on a number of issues. In March last year, the Hungarian parliament approved Finland's application for "accession", but did not allow Sweden to do so. Hungarian spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said at the time that Sweden had been "hostile" to Hungary for many years and that bridging the differences would require the joint efforts of both sides. And on the eve of the Turkish Grand National Assembly's vote in January this year to approve Sweden's "accession," there was a sudden change in the attitude of the Hungarian side.
Why did Hungary "loosen" its grip on Sweden's accession to NATO? Lu Yunmou, head of the European Security Program at the Institute of European Studies of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, analyzed that Sweden and NATO have recently stepped up diplomatic efforts against Hungary, while the United States has also put pressure on Hungary, which are the two main factors for Hungary's attitude change.
On February 18, a bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators reportedly visited Hungary. On the one hand, the visiting senators called on Hungary to "immediately approve Sweden's accession to NATO," and on the other hand, they claimed that they would submit a joint resolution to the US Congress condemning Hungary's so-called "democratic regression." The analysis notes that this move is clearly aimed at increasing pressure on Hungary and forcing the latter to "let go".
On February 23, Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson visited Budapest, the capital of Hungary, and signed an agreement with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on the defense industry. Hungary will purchase four new Gripen fighter jets from Sweden, and the lease contract for the fleet of 14 Gripen has been renewed.
According to Lu Yunmou's analysis, although there were contradictions between Hungary and Sweden, they were mainly concentrated in the field of values such as the rule of law and transparency. When it comes to European security, there is actually a certain degree of consensus between the two countries. He noted that Hungary's attitude towards Sweden's accession to NATO is not a sudden change, but is actually just "waiting for the moment." The EU and NATO see Hungary as "buyable", and only ** needs to be gambled.
Regarding Sweden's accession to the treaty, Chinese spokesperson Mao Ning said that on the issue of European security, China hopes that all parties can adhere to the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and build a balanced, effective and sustainable security framework through dialogue and consultation on the basis of the principle of indivisible security and on the basis of respecting each other's legitimate security concerns, so as to achieve regional peace and long-term peace and stability.
The Baltic Sea is going to become a "NATO lake"?
NATO's territorial borders with Russia have doubled, and the confrontation will be sharper.
Sweden's successful accession to NATO means that NATO has filled in the last piece of the puzzle in the northeast corner of Europe.
Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, only Sweden, Finland and Russia were not members of NATO. With Finland and Sweden joining the treaty one after another, the Baltic Sea has become a "NATO lake". Lithuanian Ambassador to Sweden Linas Linkvičius said that the Baltic Sea would become a "NATO internal sea".
The analysis points out that the "accession" of Finland and Sweden has brought about a major shift in the balance of power between the West and Russia, and the new members have greatly strengthened NATO's deterrent power in the Baltic and North Seas.
According to the report, Sweden's accession means a "major benefit" for other NATO members. Despite its relatively small size, Sweden retains a strong maritime and air presence. The submarines built and deployed by Sweden in the Baltic Sea have excellent maneuverability and quietness, which are expected to contain the activities of the Russian Navy. The Swedish military enterprise Saab Group, which produces the "Gripen" fighter, has strong strength and has the ability to develop and equip the latest **.
Lu Yunmou pointed out that Sweden's accession to NATO can be called a "positive asset," and NATO's momentum will be further strengthened. In contrast, such a move is bound to exacerbate Russia's sense of insecurity.
For Russia, ensuring the safe passage of ships in and out of the Baltic Sea is a matter of national importance. The Baltic Sea is an important sea passage connecting Russia to European countries, and it is also the optimal route for Russian ships to the Atlantic. If the Baltic Sea is lost, the Russian ship will need to go around the White Sea in the north to go to the European continent, not only from the distance of more than 1,000 nautical miles, but also face the perennial ice in the north.
In response to NATO's build-up and expansion of its military presence in Russia's border areas, Russia is stepping up its military deployment to its western borders. On February 26, Putin signed a decree approving the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District and the Moscow Military District. The decree entered into force on March 1. The "enclave" of Kaliningrad is located between NATO members Poland and Lithuania. In recent years, Russia has stepped up its military presence in Kaliningrad, including missiles that can carry nuclear warheads.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Union Studies at Chinese University and senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank, pointed out that after NATO's northward expansion, NATO and Russia have lost their strategic buffer and entered a direct confrontation situation.
After Finland's accession to NATO, NATO's territorial borders with Russia have doubled, especially in the confrontation in the Arctic Ocean and the Baltic Sea, as well as in high-tech, deep-sea, polar, space confrontations between Russia and NATO have become more acute. Wang Yiwei said.
What is the impact of NATO expansion?
This has led to a significant deterioration in the international security situation, particularly in Europe.
Is there a possibility of a "misfire" in the confrontation between Russia and NATO?
France**Emmanuel Macron previously publicly talked about "sending troops to Ukraine", although the United States, Britain, Germany, Poland and other Western allies have denied their intention to send ground troops, but is Macron's "troop sending theory" really wishful thinking?
In this regard, Wang Yiwei analyzed that there is a trend of increasing the possibility of conflict between NATO and Russia, but in the short term, conflicts between the two sides may not become frequent. "At present, the issue of Ukraine-East has not been resolved, and the conflict between the two sides will not break out at multiple points, but 'break through individually'. For its part, Russia also wants to gradually achieve its strategic goals without an immediate outbreak of a fierce conflict with NATO. ”
He further pointed out that although Macron and politicians of some NATO member states continue to carry out diplomatic "provocations" against Russia, they even made statements about sending troops to Ukraine. However, it is unlikely that NATO forces will engage in a head-on clash with the Russian army with "real swords and real guns".
Macron's remarks are intended to boost the morale of NATO members and a deterrent to Russia, but it does not mean that France really wants to go directly to the confrontation. "When discussing the conflict between Russia and NATO, there are often reasons behind the rhetoric of similar politicians, and their real intentions, the likelihood and severity of their occurrence must be distinguished from the reality that can actually occur." ”
However, Wang Yiwei also pointed out that the completion of a new round of NATO expansion will not be negligible in the damage to the security situation in Europe. This has led to a significant deterioration in the international security situation, particularly in Europe. ”
Lu Yunmou also said that with Finland and NATO successively "joining the treaty", the antagonism between Russia and NATO is likely to be raised to a new height, and the security environment on NATO's northeast flank will become more complex and unavoidable.
In fact, there are also voices within European countries that oppose NATO's expansion. Laszló Torockei, leader of the Hungarian far-right party "Our Fatherland" party, said a few days ago that the admission of NATO is a provocation, but also adds fuel to the fire, or triggers a devastating all-out war. "We don't think Russia will attack Finland and Sweden. Torrotsky said.
Jan Obery, founder of the Swedish Society for Transnational Peace and Future Studies, also said a few days ago that Sweden's accession to NATO is "irrational" and will reduce the security of its citizens. Sweden, which had supported disarmament and denuclearization, could now become a front-line state in crisis and tension, or even fall victim to bloc conflicts.
To a certain extent, this reflects that some rational scholars in Europe have begun to reflect on their own security dilemma. Lu Yunmou said.
Extend. From the Twelve Kingdoms to the Thirty-Two Kingdoms.
How did NATO expand step by step?
Establish. In April 1949, 12 countries, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Portugal, and Italy, signed the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington, D.C., which aimed to build collective defense, and NATO was founded.
NATO has been expanded 9 times since its inception.
1952 Greece, Turkey.
1955 Federal Republic of Germany.
1982 Spain.
1999 year.
Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic.
Year 2004.
Slovenia, Slovakia,
Romania, Bulgaria,
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia.
In 2009.
Albania, Croatia.
2017 Montenegro.
2020 North Macedonia.
2023 Finland.
New developments. On February 26, 2024, the Hungarian parliament approved the bill on Sweden's accession to NATO. At this point, all NATO member states have agreed to Sweden's "accession," and Sweden will become the 32nd member of NATO.
Profile**: Curator: Peng Yifei.