The deterioration in the early part of the 2024 refrigeration period was reversed in one fell swoop after the Spring Festival of the Jiachen Dragon Year, just like the impact of the Spring Festival in the same period last year, the trend of production and sales in the air conditioning industry this year is almost the same, whether it is domestic sales, retail and exports, there is a trend of high growth, if this momentum can be continued in the next few months, then the production and sales scale of the air conditioning industry in 2024 will hit a record high.
From late February to early March, in less than two weeks, from the head brand to the second or third enterprises, air-conditioning companies gathered to hold a dealer summit, this collective behavior is very clear, that is, collection and shipment, in the author participated in several air-conditioning enterprise dealer meetings to understand that the amount of collection has reached expectations, and some companies even exceed expectations, which also reflects the confidence of channel providers in the later market, which has led to the growth of shipments in the domestic market.
This is confirmed by the statistical results of the data monitoring agency. According to the data provided by the industry**, the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales in the air conditioning industry in January 2024 is as high as 673%；Among them, domestic shipments increased by more than 60% year-on-year, and exports increased by more than 50% year-on-year in the same period.
What's more, almost all air-conditioning plants were pumping in March. The relevant person in charge of the industry revealed to the author that the total planned production schedule of the entire household air conditioning industry in March increased by 26 compared with the same period last year9%；Moreover, the scale of domestic sales and exports is more than 10 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 173% and 273%。
The output of a number of mainstream air-conditioning enterprises exceeded the industry by the same margin, among which Oaks, TCL and Changhong in March had a year-on-year growth rate of more than 40%, and small and medium-sized enterprises, especially some of the new factories built last year, had a greater growth rate.
Household air conditioning has entered a development channel beyond expectations, and the rapid growth of output for several months has also brought huge pressure to the orderly flow of upstream chain resources, the author further learned that the core components of household air conditioning represented by compressors have been in short supply, obviously, the upstream end did not expect that this year's air conditioning industry production and sales scale growth will be so huge.
Combined with the characteristics of the domestic and foreign markets and the basic pattern of the industrial environment, it can be seen that there are many reasons why household air conditioners can achieve a record production schedule. First of all, this year, almost all air-conditioning factories have started in advance and accelerated the rhythm of collection and pressure on the channel side, and released production capacity in a short period of time, which has led to a rapid increase in output output.
Second, for the sake of dynamic competition, many air-conditioning factories have been more aggressive in their marketing policies on the channel side this year, and the 1P machine policy has dropped to below 800 yuanThe 5P inverter machine is about 1100 yuan, and many companies give a high proportion of the first machine delivery. In order to stimulate the payment and delivery of goods by channel providers, many air-conditioning factories even reward ** merchants and dealers by sending cars.
Third, the high growth of exports directly drove the output of air-conditioning factories to rise. Since July last year, China's air conditioning industry has seen a high year-on-year growth in exports every month, and the growth rate has exceeded that of the domestic market. Not only the leading brands and mainstream brands, but also the second- and third-tier brands have expanded overseas markets in recent years, which is also the reason why the export volume has been able to continue to grow at a high rate in recent years.
Fourth, the terminal retail volume is also growing, but the growth is not large, the author understands that in the first two months of 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of household air conditioners on the wall is below 10%, considering the Spring Festival holiday and the good momentum of the same period last year, to achieve growth has also boosted the expectations of the entire industry for the market.
Fifth, the active expansion behavior of the manufacturer's marketing side is driven by the internal assessment mechanism, and the increase in the amount of payment and delivery at the channel end is traction, but if the market itself is unfavorable or the channel does not have enough confidence, it will not completely follow the manufacturer's policy, and a key to the consistency of the behavior of manufacturers and merchants is obviously the outbreak of the market in the peak season of the game, the domestic market has not appeared in the real sense of the peak season for two consecutive years, and the air conditioning manufacturers are obviously waiting for a blowout.
Under the influence of the growth trend of the historical rate of emission output, the inventory in the domestic market is also rising day by day, once the market is cold in the peak season of this year, then the main work of the industry in the later period may still revolve around destocking.