Tongdao Think Tank 2024-03-01 10:47 Beijing.
The way unmanned maritime vessels are reshaping naval warfare is becoming increasingly evident in the Black Sea, and their underwater "close cousins" – autonomous submersibles (AUVs) – are increasingly being seen as an impact on future warfare. Undersea warfare may be an area where it shines, itself mysterious and little known.
According to Navy News on February 28, the incident of suspected Houthi attacks on submarine cables in the Red Sea is a timely reminder of new realities. The era of undersea warfare has arrived, and undersea infrastructure will increasingly become a target.
* The future is always tricky, but the direction is clear. Recent situations in the Baltic, North Sea, Black Sea and, now the Red Sea, suggest that the approach to warfare and hybrid warfare will change. Attacks on undersea infrastructure are likely to become more common, even to be expected.
The victim of future wars may be your internet connection when the cable is cut. These events can occur thousands of kilometers away, hundreds of meters below sea level. These new threats are not yet fully understood.
1.New threats
It is easy to refer to the historical events of the undersea war. At the outbreak of World War I, Britain cut the German submarine telegraph cable. The famous Operation Ivy Bell of the US Navy during the Cold War, which was designed to eavesdrop on Soviet submarine cables.
The world has become more connected. Electricity, gas, oil, and, of course, the internet all rely on undersea infrastructure. The same can be done for data centers and nuclear power plants. Because of this connectivity, it is conceivable that an attack on an offshore wind farm in Sweden could affect electricity bills in Ireland. These are all vulnerable. States** are slowly embracing this new dimension of naval warfare.
2.The time is ripe for a hybrid war on the bottom of the sea
The inherent ambiguity and indirectness make undersea infrastructure a tempting target for hybrid warfare.
The attack can also be relatively simple. It can be done by divers in shallow water or by boats towing anchors or fishing nets.
Hamas has built unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) to target Israel's offshore gas infrastructure. While not yet successful, the threat is real.
3.Undersea warfare is part of future hot wars
In a hot war, attacks on submarine infrastructure will be common. Cutting off these facilities actually disconnects the islands, making defense and coordination more difficult.
Historically, now, Russia has invested the most in offensive submarine combat capabilities. It has a fleet of nuclear submarines, designed to carry small nuclear submarines that can interfere with submarine infrastructure deep at the surface. This is complemented by specialized ships (most famously Yantar) and a number of other equipment.
The increasing sophistication of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) could influence future threats. AUVs can be launched from hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away, approach the target out of sight, and then blow it up. It can locate cables or pipes using sonar or a variety of methods open to engineers. It can place bombs in such a way as to neutralize mines, or simply detonate itself.
Attacking undersea targets is no easy task. It is inherently more challenging than attacking ground infrastructure. But the technical means to achieve this are within reach for most navies. More and more AUV manufacturers have the required expertise.
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