2024 will be the year when China's economy returns to a reasonable range. Despite the coexistence of strategic opportunities, risks and challenges, and the increase in uncertainties and unpredictable factors, the long-term positive trend of economic development has not changed. As the effects of various policies continue to appear, social expectations will gradually improve, and the macro economy is also expected to further stabilize and rebound.
How can China's economy achieve stable growth in 2024? How to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial and other policies, and ensure that the same direction is forced, forming a joint force? In the face of the "temperature difference" between macro data and micro feelings, how to enhance the sense of gain of enterprises and individuals?
China's economy has always been forging ahead in the midst of chopping waves. As the curtain of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress slowly opens, the answers to these questions will become clearer.
Enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation.
In 2023, China's economy has stepped out of a recovery curve that is picking up and improving, and the main expected goals have been successfully completed. The annual GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 5 over the previous year2. Remarkable new achievements have been made in high-quality development.
The first economic work conference held at the end of last year proposed that some difficulties and challenges need to be overcome to further promote the economic rebound, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and many hidden risks.
Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that China's economy still needs to face many challenges in 2024. The global economy will continue to be weak, and the external situation will remain complex and severe. Risks in key areas of economic development still need to be paid attention to, such as the risk of small and medium-sized banks still exists, and it is necessary to prevent the risk spillover of the real estate market, and the risk of default of local ** debt is relatively large.
In particular, he mentioned that there is still a "temperature difference" between macro data and micro subjects. There is still room for improvement in indicators that are directly related to personal fulfillment, such as income and employment. Due to concerns about the uncertainty of future demand, entrepreneurs' confidence in expanding factories and recruiting employees and increasing R&D investment still needs to be improved, and there are structural problems in the labor market that "difficulty in finding jobs" and "difficulty in recruiting" coexist.
* The Economic Work Conference set the tone for this year's macroeconomic policies and emphasized that "it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation". Liu Yuanchun said that to deal with challenges and problems, macroeconomic policies need to be targeted. There is a need to promote economic recovery with fiscal policy, boosting expectations, and employment-first policies at the core. At the same time, the policy should be ahead of expectations, the pace of the policy should move forward, and avoid the macroeconomic regulation and control of the "first-class forced and passive policy response" and "average force".
How to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation? Gao Peiyong, a member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the allocation of macroeconomic policies should learn from the lessons of the past, coordinate development and security, and take into account the effectiveness of stimulus policy guidance in the context of China's current economic size.
Gao Peiyong believes that there is only one way to go in the current macroeconomic policy allocation, that is, to "approach" precisely and accurately allocate limited macroeconomic regulation and control resources to various focal points and key points in the economic recovery process. Everything must be about quality and efficiency, and everything must be precise and fine, which may be the only way for macroeconomic regulation and control and macroeconomic policy allocation in the current economic recovery process. At present, economic work requires patience and doing a good job one by one.
* Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Finance Office in charge of daily work, said at the annual meeting of the Chinese economy that practice shows that in addition to direct economic policies, many non-economic policies also have a direct or indirect impact on economic operation, so it is necessary to adhere to the system concept, not only to strengthen the coordination and cooperation between fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology policies, but also to incorporate non-economic policies into the macro policy orientation consistency assessment, so that various policies can better coordinate and enhance synergy.
The Ministry of Finance issued an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of last year, and most of the physical volume will be reflected in 2024. The People's Bank of China has also added a new 500 billion yuan PSL (collateral supplementary loan) quota to support the construction of the "three major projects", and the stock policy will continue to reflect the economic driving effect. In addition, many departments said that they will strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools this year.
For example, the real estate market in the deep adjustment, under the guidance of city-specific policies, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and other hot cities have relaxed the purchase restriction policy, and the "white list" of financial support for the financing of real estate enterprises has also been launched. The market expects that this year's two sessions will continue the real estate demand-side policy and financial support policy tone, or more flexible and targeted in implementation, and at the same time accelerate the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing, "flat and emergency" public infrastructure, and urban village transformation.
We will further deepen reform in an all-round way.
This year is another important year for comprehensively deepening reform, and the main task is to plan to further deepen reform in an all-round way, which is not only a continuation of the practice of comprehensively deepening reform since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, but also a new chapter of the era of promoting Chinese-style modernization in the new journey. "The fourth meeting of the ** Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform held on February 19 released an important signal.
More than 40 years ago, China embarked on a magnificent reform and opening up. Today, reform and opening up remains the key to determining the fate of contemporary China. To start the course of reform and opening up again, it is necessary to take this road more broadly and far-reaching. **The Economic Work Conference made special arrangements for "deepening the reform of key areas", requiring continuous improvement and implementation of the "two unswerving" institutional mechanisms to fully stimulate the endogenous power and innovation vitality of various business entities. In addition, it also mentioned the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the planning of a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, and the implementation of financial system reform.
The National Financial Work Conference made it clear that in 2024, it is necessary to actively and steadily plan to promote a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, improve the modern budget system, optimize the tax structure, and improve the fiscal transfer payment system. At present, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Jiangxi have successively announced plans for the reform of the financial system below the provincial level.
Wang Yongjun, director of the Budget Research Center of the University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that the original framework of the tax-sharing system is no longer suitable for the new situation, and a new round of fiscal system reform needs to be planned. Among them, the reform of the financial system below the provincial level plays an important role. More than 70% of the population has been provided with basic public services at the grassroots level. To promote the reform of the financial system below the provincial level, it is necessary to strengthen the ability of grassroots public services to be guaranteed.
Professor Lv Bingyang, Executive Director of the Institute of Finance and Taxation of Renmin University of Chinese, recently released a report on "Prospects for a New Round of Fiscal and Taxation System Reform". He analyzed that the new round of fiscal and taxation system reform should take into account the enhancement of fiscal sustainability and the resolution of local debt risks, which requires the overall planning of financial resources, the improvement of the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, and the reform of the social security system. For example, we should vigorously optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and fully implement the reform task of "promoting the construction of the expenditure standard system". In terms of the relationship between the provinces, it is necessary to focus on reforming the financial system below the provincial level, improving the local tax system, reforming the tax sharing method, and improving the transfer payment system.
In 2024, the new round of deepening and upgrading of state-owned enterprise reform will usher in a critical year for comprehensive advancement, and more than 70% of the main tasks will be completed. Wang Hongzhi, deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said at the first special promotion meeting of the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2024 on February 27 that the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2023 has achieved a good start, and a number of key tasks have made positive progress. In 2024, it is necessary to complete more than 70% of the main tasks to the letter, highlight the implementation plan and work ledger, and arrange key and difficult reform tasks in advance.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) requires that the completion of more than 70% of the main tasks should be hard and early; Functional and mission-based reform tasks should find the right direction of action and strengthen assessment and guidance; The reform tasks of the system and mechanism should be implemented in a wider and deeper way; The reform tasks of functional missions and the reform tasks of systems and mechanisms should be coordinated and promoted as a whole, and a combination of reforms should be formed; To promote reform, it is necessary to penetrate the grassroots level from top to bottom; We must always strengthen the party's leadership and party building, and ensure the deepening of the new round of reform with high-quality party building.
Zhou Lisha, research director of the China Modern State-owned Enterprise Research Institute at Tsinghua University, said that the reform of the three systems of labor, personnel and distribution is a hard bone in the reform of state-owned enterprises. It is necessary to speed up the improvement of a flexible and efficient market-oriented management mechanism, and create a number of reform models with new mechanisms, full of vitality, and strong motivation. State-owned central enterprises should strive to increase the proportion of income and added value of strategic emerging industries, continuously enhance their core functions and improve their core competitiveness.