Look at the quantitative indicators and lead the peak with wisdom.
I have a classmate who raises pigs in his hometown, about 400 pigs a year. originally thought that he would lose all his pants, but chatting with him during the Chinese New Year turned out to make a lot of money every year. After asking in detail, I found out that this guy originally ate the entire industrial chain from raising pigs to selling meat, and it is not profitable to raise pigs alone, but if you directly supply meat to the supermarket, there is still some money. After all, selling pigs for seven or eight yuan a catty, but selling pork can be sold for 12 yuan a catty.
In other words, the price of pigs is so low, when will it be **? Today let's talk about pigs**.
Fundamentals of pigs
Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Implementation Plan for the Regulation and Control of Pig Production Capacity (Revised in 2024)". The revision of the "plan", on the basis of adhering to the current work ideas, overall requirements and the task of "three grasps and two guarantees", will be adjusted from 41 million to 39 million sows, and the lower limit of the normal fluctuation (green area) of the number of sows will be adjusted from 95% to 92% of the normal number of sows. To understand the pig pattern, we must first understand the profit and loss situation of the three giants of pig breeding.
1. Muyuan shares, with an annual output of 80 million pigs, it is expected to lose the first performance from January to December 2023, with an attributable net profit of about -4.7 billion yuan to -3.9 billion yuan From the perspective of breeding costs, the average pig breeding cost of Muyuan shares in 2023 is 7About 5 yuan catty.
2. Wen's shares, annual sales 2626220,000 pigs, disclosed in the express report from January to December 2023, with a total operating income of 899200 million yuan, attributable net profit -63$2.9 billion. The cost of the company's breeding is 78-7.9 yuan catty.
3. New Hope, sales 1768 a year240,000 pigs, it is expected to turn around from January to December 2023, with an attributable net profit of about 300 million yuan and earnings per share of about 005 yuan, deducting non-net profit of about -4.5 billion yuan. New Hope's net profit mainly comes from raising chickens and deep processing, and raising pigs is still a big loss.
Many pig companies are doing hedging in the ** market, and hedging is equivalent to transferring future risks and profits to speculative prospects. Now the forward contract** is higher, and the profit production can be locked. For example, the hog 2409 contract is currently 16,750 yuan, which is 838 yuan catty, if Muyuan shares 80 million pigs are hedged according to this **, each pig is calculated according to 200 catties, a pig can earn 160 yuan, a profit of 12.8 billion.
Hahaha, of course, this is a theoretical value, in fact, the ** market cannot accept it 80 million pigs.
However, this is another way of thinking for pig enterprises, and the breeding cost of giants is generally 75 yuan catty. The pig forward contract is 8-9 yuan for a long time, so if you are short on the forward, you can make a profit through hedging. However, the current main contract is 73 yuan kg, pig enterprises are also quite collapsed.
Pig capital side
At present, the biggest short position of hogs is COFCO, and this seat is the hedging seat of the national team. COFCO is currently mainly ** in the 2409 contract, and there are also some on the 2407 contract. However, the 05 main contract is too cheap and there is no short order.
This kind of breed that has been falling for several years, many of the first stage of ** are **. Like Dongcai and Huishang on the main contract, they are all family members. ** people don't have much profit at the moment.
The technical side of the pig
As can be seen from the figure below, the pig has made 3 bottoms around 14,000, and it can't fall below this area. Currently, this location can be used as a safe zone for multiple orders. Recently, the trading volume has been relatively sluggish, and funds are waiting and seeing. It is also in the most recent pivot to form a very dense trading area.
In the early stage, a long-term downward trend line has been broken, and this breakthrough is a horizontal ** breakthrough of the downward trend line, not ** breakthrough. This kind of ** long people need more patience, the operation is still relatively simple, as long as it is no longer a new low, more orders can be taken all the time.
Hogs have come out with a bullish signal at the bottom, and the bullish trend is currently 45 stars, risk index 15 stars. Given that pork has been falling for a long time, the sudden appearance of such a signal is something to pay attention to.
To sum up, the decline in the number of sows in the fundamentals can restrict pig production, and the continuous losses of pig giants will also shrink to a certain extent**. There should be a wave of hogs in 2024. In addition, there have been signals on the technical side, and the recent contract price is low, so you can fight.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that today there are trend signals on many varieties, such as **, the long signal has been several days, and the short signal of thread and iron ore has also been around for a long time. If you are in a big trend, you can actively pay attention to this indicator.