The new Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted nearly five months, and the Israeli army's military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed more than 30,000 people. At present, the international community's call for an end to the fighting has intensified, and mediation efforts to secure a ceasefire are underway. Recently, Palestinian** suddenly resigned, and there has been a constant exchange of fire in the border areas between Lebanon and Israel. Where is the Gaza conflict heading? The following issues deserve attention.
Question 1: Is there a ceasefire before Ramadan?
Qatar and Egypt are currently brokering a ceasefire in Gaza. The United States is also participating in mediation under domestic political needs and pressure from the international community. The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has conveyed the position in previous negotiations that it insists on a permanent Israeli ceasefire and the withdrawal of its troops from the Gaza Strip, but that Israel is only willing to negotiate a moratorium on the offensive.
Egypt's Prime Minister Shoukry said on March 1 that Egypt is working with Qatar, the United States and others to broker a "ceasefire and exchange of hostages" before the start of Ramadan on March 10.
In an exclusive interview with NBC on February 26, Biden said that Israel had agreed not to conduct military operations during Ramadan, thus "giving us time for all the hostages to be released." Biden also said on the same day that he hoped to achieve a ceasefire by March 4. However, this statement has not been confirmed by the Israeli side.
Jonatan Freeman, an expert on international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Xinhua that a ceasefire before Ramadan is possible, but it depends on whether the Israeli ceasefire can be exchanged for "the release of a large number of hostages" and whether the two sides can agree on a definition of a ceasefire.
Harrell Horef, a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University in Israel, believes that Ramadan may not be a ceasefire node, because there have often been clashes between Palestine and Israel during Ramadan in the past.
In the early hours of February 29, Israeli forces launched an attack on a relief pick-up point in Gaza City, killing at least 115 people and wounding about 760. This incident has triggered strong condemnation from the international community and has exerted greater international pressure on Israel.
Question 2: Will the Israeli army attack Rafah?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on February 25 that even if Israel and Hamas reach an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of detainees, Israeli forces will eventually launch a ground offensive against Rafah. The Israeli military and intelligence services believe that Israeli personnel are being held in Rafah and that Hamas leaders are hiding in the tunnels of Rafah.
Some 1.4 million Palestinians, more than half of the population of the Gaza Strip, are currently sheltering fighting in Rafah. The international community fears that Israel's ground attack on Rafah will further exacerbate civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
Analysts point out that Israel is currently "riding a tiger and finding it difficult to get down." The military operation has been going on for nearly five months, but it has not achieved the main objectives declared by the Israeli side, which is to eliminate Hamas and free all Israeli detainees. As far as the former target is concerned, the Israeli military recently announced that it had killed 120,000 Hamas fighters. According to Israeli estimates, Hamas has a total of about 250,000 armed men. With regard to the latter target, Israel claims that more than 130 Israeli detainees have not yet been released.
Freeman argues that if Israel is unable to negotiate the expulsion of Hamas and the release of detainees, then a ground attack on Rafah is "inevitable."
Question 3: Why did the Palestinians resign suddenly?
On 26 February, Mahmoud Abbas accepted Prime Minister Ashtiyeh's resignation, but demanded that Ashtiyah continue to perform his duties until a new one is formed. Regarding the reason for his resignation, Ashtiyeh said that given the evolving situation in the Gaza Strip and the urgent need for a consensus within Palestine on the basis of national unity, broad participation, and unified jurisdiction over all Palestinian land, "new ** and political arrangements are needed".
The Palestinian National Authority, led by Abbas, currently has only de facto control over the West Bank.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken previously proposed that once the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict ends, the Gaza Strip should be under the unified jurisdiction of the Palestinian National Authority along with the West Bank. At the same time, however, the US side demanded that the Palestinian National Authority implement "reforms." Israel, for its part, is unequivocally opposed not only to Palestinian statehood, but also to the Palestinian National Authority's post-war administration of Gaza.
According to Horref, the dissolution of the Palestinian National Authority in response to the United States' demand for "reform" in the hope of winning the initiative to govern Gaza in the absence of a formal post-war plan for Gaza governance in Israel. Ayman Youssef, a professor of political science at the Arab American University in Palestine, also believes that the resignation of the Palestinian Authority is a move by the Palestinian National Authority to "seize the lead."
Question 4: Will the situation between Lebanon and Israel escalate on a large scale?
Since the outbreak of the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel has been fighting with the Lebanese Allah Party, which supports Hamas. CNN quoted a U.S. ** as saying on 29 February that US intelligence ** believes that Israel is planning to launch a ground offensive against Lebanon, and if diplomatic mediation cannot force Allah forces to withdraw from the Lebanese-Israeli border, then the Israeli army is likely to start at the end of this spring.
Israeli Defense Minister Gallant said on February 25 that even if there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Israel will continue to intensify its attack on Allah in Lebanon.
Horev pointed out that in the past five months, there have been daily exchanges of fire between Israel and Allah in Lebanon, with occasional small-scale escalations, but so far they are generally in a "manageable" range and have not developed into large-scale firefights. However, in the long run, Israel will not accept the presence of Allah forces on the Lebanese-Israeli border, and Israel may launch a ground offensive against Lebanon to "drive away Allah forces and restore security on the northern border."
Freeman believes that whether the exchange of fire between Israel and Allah in Lebanon will escalate depends mainly on whether Israel launches a ground offensive against Rafah. If Israel attacks Rafah, Allah is bound to step up its attacks on Israel, and the exchange of fire between the two sides could escalate rapidly.
*:Xinhua.