Chao News reporter Tu Chenxin.
On March 5, Macron visited Prague, Czech Republic. Source: Visual China.
There is no doubt that Europe is approaching a moment. When this time comes, we must stop being cowardly. ”
On March 5, local time, France's Macron made these remarks during his visit to the Czech Republic, making an impressive reiteration of his previous ** remarks that caused huge controversy on both sides of the Atlantic - "the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine is not ruled out".
According to the CCTV news client, on February 26, the leaders of more than 20 European countries, as well as representatives of the United States and Canada, held an international conference in support of Ukraine in Paris. At the meeting, in order to urge Western allies to support Ukraine, Macron said that he would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine.
However, the anti-Russian friends of the United States and the European Union did not buy Macron's tough attitude without warning, and the latter "cut seats" one after another, saying that they had no plans to send troops to Ukraine.
Despite not having the support of his allies, Macron is adamant that he will not change his tune. "Every word I say on this issue has been weighed and well thought out," he told reporters on February 29 during a visit to the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Athletes' Village, according to the French newspaper Le Monde.
As one of the heads of state of the "five permanent members", Macron, who has always been relatively moderate in his attitude towards Russia, threw out "hawkish" remarks this time, which really surprised the world. Is he bluffing and drinking Russia? Or does it really have a backhand and will really send troops? Or are Western countries singing a duet against Putin? To this end, Chao News consulted military experts.
Macron (center) inspects troops at a naval base in Cherbourg, northwestern France, on January 19. Xinhua News Agency, AFP.
As soon as the remarks came out, Macron was "cut off" by the United States and European friends
As soon as Macron's remarks came out, Europe and the United States were in an uproar. Most EU and NATO leaders have expressed opposition and denial, and some countries have said that they have no such plan, distancing themselves from the talk of "sending troops".
NATO has previously said publicly that it will not send troops to Ukraine, fearing that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will escalate into a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. However, many Western countries have provided Ukraine with a large number of advanced equipment and trained Ukrainian soldiers, and some mercenaries from Western countries have gone to fight in Ukraine.
In response to Macron's latest statement, the White House said on the 5th that Ukraine has never sought Western troops. Kirby, the coordinator of strategic communications at the White House committee, said that Ukraine's **Zelensky "did not ask for this, he only asked for **ammunition, and never asked the foreign **team to fight for Ukraine".
German Defense Minister Pistorius responded during his visit to Sweden on the 5th that Macron's courageous remarks will not help resolve the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Speaking at a press conference on the same day, Pistorius said: "At least from my point of view, we don't really need to talk about sending ground troops, and we don't need to talk about how much courage there is." ”
Also on the 5th, Czech Pavel said that Ukraine's allies should seek "new ways to aid Ukraine" and that Western countries would not cross the "imaginary red line". In his opinion, NATO countries can train Ukrainian troops in Ukraine, which "does not violate international rules."
Even the tone of the French ** is different from theirs. A number of France** said that they could send people to Ukraine to carry out tasks such as mine clearance, rather than directly engaging the Russian army.
The Kremlin has previously warned that a direct conflict between NATO and Russia will be "inevitable" if Western countries send troops to Ukraine.
On February 16, Macron and Ukraine's Zelensky signed a bilateral security agreement at the Elysee Palace in Paris. Source: Visual China.
Deterring Russia and pressuring the United States at the same time, Macron or killing two birds with one stone.
Putin cannot be allowed to win, which is a red line for the United States and Europe. Fu Qianjiao, a military expert and deputy editor of the Air Force's "Aviation Magazine", told reporters that in this context, Europe has passed more than 50 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, and Biden is also stepping up to promote the passage of more than 60 billion US dollars in aid to Ukraine in Congress.
But if this support, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, is not enough to change the situation in which the Ukrainian army is heading for defeat, there is only one way left, and that is to send the army out. Fu Qianjiao believes that this is a means for Macron to maintain strategic ambiguity in order to achieve deterrence against Russia. At the same time, Macron's warning may also be putting pressure on the United States to come up with greater aid to Ukraine.
In Fu Qianjiao's view, the international conference on support for Ukraine held by more than 20 countries in Europe and the United States has a huge momentum, which is tantamount to telling Putin that the war against Ukraine must have a bottom line. "These countries will not accept a big victory for Russia, and Russia will not accept its own defeat on the battlefield. This determines the prospect of a more permanent battlefield in Ukraine, and may even escalate the situation and trigger a greater crisis due to the end of Western troops. ”
Workers clean up debris scattered on the streets of damaged buildings in Kharkiv, Ukraine, January 24. Source: Visual China.
There are three main ways for European armies to fight in Ukraine.
So, is it possible for European countries to send their own ** teams to the front line in Ukraine and directly engage the Russian army?
In Fu Qiansen's view, Macron's tough statements in the past few days are more likely to be a deterrent. However, there is also the possibility that a small number of Eastern European countries will send volunteers.
Fu Qianjiao believes that at present, it seems that there are several possible situations in which the armies of European countries enter Ukraine to fight.
First, encourage its citizens to actively and voluntarily join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, the Czech Prime Minister recently approved the entry of 20 Czechs into the Ukrainian army. "To a certain extent, this can make up for the shortcomings of Ukraine's human resources, which are close to exhaustion.
Second, European countries have organized mercenaries to enter Ukraine to perform some low-risk tasks in place of the regular Ukrainian army. For example, the armies of the three Baltic countries can be deployed on the border between Ukraine and Belarus to help Ukraine's defense in this direction, so that the Ukrainian army will have nearly 200,000 more mobile combat troops to free up their hands to deal with Russia. This article is considered by Fu Qianshao to be the most reasonable choice for sending troops at present.
The third way is more straightforward, and the risk is higher - directly send so-called volunteers to participate in front-line battles. "If the Ukrainian army still finds it difficult to resist the offensive of the Russian army on its own, then it is possible that some anti-Russian countries will directly send elite troops to the front line to participate in the war. ”
Of course, based on the principle that NATO and the United States do not end up in a direct conflict with Russia, it is possible that these troops enter the battlefield in a secret way, or they may only represent their own countries in the war after signing an agreement with Ukraine, so as to avoid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalating into a war between NATO and Russia. Fu Qianshao analyzed.
But doing so is almost "playing with life", and these European armies will definitely become a thorn in Russia's side and a key target. With the exception of Poland, Lithuania and other countries that are afraid of rising anti-Russian sentiment, there will be very few countries willing to do so.
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