I bet one lesson we can remember from elementary school is the water cycle. Even if you don't remember exactly what you learned, you may remember some kind of ** or chart that is so colorful and creative that it makes the day feel more interesting. For some of us (myself included), it's honestly hard to forget. Even in the world, thinking of the three components of the water cycle, pun intended, rinse and repeat: evaporation, condensation, and sedimentation, feels concise.
Our planet cannot survive without water, which makes up 71% of the world's entire surface and the oceans account for about 97% of that figure. However, that being said, the process can get very complicated when you mix in a changing climate, which is driven by human activities like burning coal and other day-to-day impacts that we contribute as a society. As a weather forecaster, I know the challenges we face when it comes to natural disasters on the water such as floods, landslides, and droughts.
But in order for scientists to make the most accurate ** and better understand how this cycle works, we need to obtain and review models that contain as much high-resolution data as possible. Ideally, this data should also cover every inch of the planet, from the highest peaks all the way down to the water buried deep underground.
And, thanks to funding from the European Space Agency, scientists are building a digital twin of the Earth and all its lovely water that can be examined.
Simulating the Earth at high resolution is very complex, so basically the idea is to focus on a specific target first," Luca Brocca of the Italian National Research Council said in a statement. "That's the idea behind our development – a digital twin of the terrestrial water cycle in the Mediterranean basin case study. Our goal is to create a system that allows non-specialists, including policymakers and citizens, to run interactive simulations.
Brocca is the lead author of an in-depth article on the study, and he created the digital twin with his colleagues. With this model, scientists can continuously input new data to simulate best-case and worst-case natural disaster scenarios in different environments on our planet. For example, by replicating a landslide, the associated risks and conditions can be monitored as if they were happening in real time. This can further help prepare for potentially disruptive events in the future based on what is learned in each test.
So, how are these models created?
**10,000 Fans Incentive Program According to NASA records, the average global temperature has risen steadily since 1880. （*nasa）
Scientists have done a lot of work to make use of as much satellite data as possible, which is collected through a large number of Earth observations. They then blended measurements of soil moisture, precipitation, snow depth, evaporation, and river flow to measure at specific time intervals to paint a clear picture of the dynamics of variables on Earth. The model's high-resolution data can then be used as an interactive tool for scientists.
This project is a perfect example of the synergy between cutting-edge satellite missions and the scientific community," Broca said. Collaborations like this, coupled with investments in computing infrastructure, are essential to manage the impacts of climate change and other human impacts.
As with any type of model, it takes practice to achieve perfection. But you have to start somewhere.
Brocca and colleagues first used digital twins to model the Po Valley in northern Italy and other parts of the Mediterranean basin; In the future, they plan to create similar models across Europe before collaborating with scientists from other continents. The main goal of the project is to help places where flooding and landslides can occur and to learn how to better manage our water resources.
We should start with something that we are very familiar with," Broca said. "The Po Valley is very complex – we have the Alps, we have the snow, which is difficult to simulate, especially in irregular and complex terrain such as mountains. Then there are the valleys, where there is all the human activity – industry, irrigation. And then we have a river and extreme events – floods, droughts. Then we moved to the Mediterranean, which is a great place to investigate extreme events, whether it's too much or too little water.
While the team's modeling focuses on a larger area, more localized studies are also planned. But, for now, scientists continue to focus on the biggest and most enduring challenges in its mechanism. For example, as large amounts of data continue to be added, the complex algorithms they develop will need to converge; More ground-based observations are needed, they say, to continue validating the satellite data they use.
Likewise, in order to cope with any uncertainties that may arise when using satellite data, Brocca wants to incorporate artificial intelligence into his plans to eliminate some of the problems. In a way, AI is like an extra pair of eyes if it can indeed be trained well. As we've seen with the use of AI in weather models, such as those related to wildfires**, the benefits of this collaboration include minimizing errors that can sometimes occur when capturing images due to changes in atmospheric conditions. Implementing AI can also save time, allowing human engineers to focus on other areas of concern.
"The combined efforts of scientists, space agencies and policymakers promise a future where a digital twin Earth for hydrology provides valuable insights into sustainable water resources management and resilience," Brocca said.