In his annual state of the nation address on February 29, Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning to the West, saying that the West's dangerous actions and rhetoric in foreign policy pose a threat to use nuclear weapons to create a conflict and thus destroy civilization. Putin also said he had no intention of renegotiating the last major arms control treaty still in force with the United States, unless the new deal could decide Ukraine's fate, which was largely in Russia's hands. Putin's speech has aroused widespread concern and concern in the international community, with some people believing that this is a kind of nuclear blackmail, some people think that this is a kind of nuclear chess, and some people think that this is a kind of nuclear deterrence. So, how credible and influential is Putin's nuclear threat? What is his purpose and intentions? What are the implications and warnings for international and regional security and stability?
Putin's nuclear threat is not the first time. Since Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine in 2014, Putin has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of using nuclear **, both domestically and internationally. He threatened to use Russia's nuclear arsenal at the beginning of his war against Ukraine in 2016, in 2018 when he was losing ground, and in 2020 when he felt he was weakening Ukraine's defenses and the resolve of the United States. Each time for the same basic purpose: to put pressure on the West, to preserve Russia's interests and position, to prevent Western sanctions and intervention in Russia, and to buy time and space for Russia's military operation in Ukraine.
Putin knows that the adversary, led by Biden**, fears the escalation of the conflict the most, especially the nuclear one. Even the threat of a nuclear strike is a reminder to Putin's many adversaries that pushing him too hard is risky. Putin's nuclear threat is also in line with Russia's military principles and strategic thinking. Russia's military doctrine holds that nuclear is a political one, not just a military one. The role of nuclear ** is not in practical use, but in deterrence and impact. Russia's military strategy believes that nuclear ** is a means of "de-escalation", not a means of "escalation". Nuclear ** is used to avoid a larger conflict, not to provoke a larger one. Thus, the principle of Russia's use of nuclear ** is the "evasive first use", that is, in the face of overwhelming superiority in conventional forces or a threat to the survival of the country, the use of nuclear ** as a last resort to force the other side to cease hostilities or accept negotiations.
This principle is different from the US and NATO principles of the use of nuclear **, which is an "unconditional second use", that is, the use of nuclear ** will be used only after a nuclear strike to retaliate.
How credible and influential is Putin's nuclear threat? It depends on who, how, and under what conditions his nuclear threat is. Putin's nuclear threat is primarily aimed at the United States and NATO, not Ukraine or other countries. Putin's nuclear threat is approached primarily in political and diplomatic contexts, not in military and strategic ones. Putin's nuclear threat is conditioned primarily when Western sanctions and intervention against Russia reach a certain level, not when Russia's military operation encounters difficulties or failures.
All of this shows that Putin's nuclear threat is not a rash or impulsive act, but a planned and purposeful one. Putin's nuclear threat is not to really use nuclear **, but to use the deterrence and influence of nuclear ** to achieve his political and diplomatic goals. The credibility and influence of Putin's nuclear threat depends on whether his nuclear threat can change the attitude and actions of the West, and whether the West can resist or respond to his nuclear threat. Judging by past experience, Putin's nuclear threat has not completely brought the West to its knees or backed, but it has not made the West completely ignore or fight back.
The West's attitude towards Putin's nuclear threat is one of both vigilance and calmness, opposition and patience, response and restraint. The West's actions against Putin's nuclear threat are to both strengthen defenses and avoid provocations, to provide assistance and control the scale, to seek dialogue and maintain positions. All this shows that Putin's nuclear threat has not fully achieved his desired effect, but it has not completely lost his power either.
What is the purpose and intent of Putin's nuclear threat? On the surface, Putin's nuclear threat is aimed at gaining an advantage over Ukraine, gaining more space and time for Russia's military operations, and gaining more leverage and voice for Russia's political and diplomatic negotiations. From a deeper level, Putin's nuclear threat is to safeguard Russia's national interests and international status, to strive for more guarantees and respect for Russia's national sovereignty and national sovereignty, as well as to strive for more opportunities and space for Russia's national development and national honor. Putin's purpose and intentions of the nuclear threat reflect his personal character and national identity. Putin is a tough and confident leader, he is not afraid of risks and challenges, he likes to take control and dominate the agenda, he seeks power and influence, and he values dignity and glory. Russia is a complex and contradictory country, it has both strong and proud traditions, but also the reality of fragility and inferiority, it has both the desire for openness and cooperation, and the tendency to close and confrontation, it has both the need for reform and innovation, and the dilemma of conservatism and lag. Putin's nuclear threat is a way for him and Russia to respond and adapt in the face of external pressures and internal challenges.
What are the implications and warnings of Putin's nuclear threat for international and regional security and stability? First of all, Putin's nuclear threat shows that nuclear power is still an important factor in international politics and security, nuclear deterrence is still an important principle in international relations and strategy, and nuclear conflict is still an important threat to international peace and development. Putin's nuclear threat reminds us that we cannot ignore or trivialize the existence and role of nuclear weapons, that control and reduction of nuclear weapons cannot be relaxed or abandoned, and that the use and consequences of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out or ignored. Putin's nuclear threat requires us to strengthen and improve the management and supervision of nuclear weapons, promote and deepen the reduction and elimination of nuclear weapons, and prevent and avoid the proliferation and misuse of nuclear weapons. Second, Putin's nuclear threat shows that Russia is still an important player in the international pattern and order, Russia's interests and aspirations are still an important part of international cooperation and competition, and Russia's behavior and attitude are still important factors in international stability and change.
Putin's nuclear threat reminds us that Russia's status and role cannot be ignored or trivialized, communication and exchanges with Russia cannot be relaxed or abandoned, and cooperation and confrontation with Russia cannot be ruled out or ignored. Putin's nuclear threat requires us to respect and understand Russia's history and reality, balance and coordinate interests and relations with Russia, and prevent and avoid conflict and confrontation with Russia. Finally, Putin's nuclear threat shows that the Ukraine issue remains an important focus in Europe and Asia, the future and destiny of Ukraine remain an important issue for Russia and the West, and peace and development in Ukraine remain an important responsibility of the international community.
Putin's nuclear threat reminds us that Ukraine's plight and demands cannot be ignored or trivialized, support and assistance to Ukraine cannot be relaxed or abandoned, and Ukraine's options and aspirations cannot be ruled out or ignored. Putin's nuclear threat requires us to pay attention to and help Ukraine's security and stability, advance and promote Ukraine's reform and development, and protect and respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territory.
In conclusion, Putin's nuclear threat is a danger and a challenge, as well as an opportunity and a revelation. We should be vigilant and resist Putin's nuclear threat, and we should also understand and respond to Putin's nuclear threat. We should insist on and maintain the control and reduction of nuclear **, as well as dialogue and cooperation with Russia. We should support and help Ukraine for peace and development, as well as for Russia's reforms and innovations. We should deal with and resolve the Ukraine issue, as well as other issues involving Russia and the West, in a peaceful and rational manner, so as to contribute and work for international and regional security and stability, as well as the progress and prosperity of mankind and civilization.