Time flies, and the blink of an eye for 2024 has opened its arms to us. Looking back on the past 2023, China's real estate market continues to show a downturn. According to statistics, as of December 2023, the average second-hand residential property in 100 cities across the country is tentatively set at 15,315 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 055%, which is the 20th consecutive month of month-on-month trending**. Despite this, the trend of optimization and adjustment of the domestic real estate market is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and many people are looking forward to a new chapter of prosperity in the real estate market in 2024, stimulated by various policies.
In response to this problem, experts in related fields believe that if there is no emergency, the domestic real estate market in 2024 will be comparable to last year, and may be more drastic than in 2023, so each of us needs to be fully psychologically prepared. It is worth noting that China's real estate market will see the following six major changes in 2024, let's take a look at them together:
The first change: In 2024, restrictions on purchases in non-core areas of first-tier cities will be gradually lifted.
In fact, at the end of 2023, the transaction of new housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities is declining rapidly. For example, world-renowned first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have begun to relax restrictions on purchases in non-core areas, and only need to make 2 to 3 years of social insurance contributions locally to qualify for the purchase of a home. It is estimated that by 2024, all large first-tier cities, except for the central area, will not release the purchase restrictions, and the purchase and loan restrictions in other areas will be fully opened.
The second change: the perspective of buying a house will gradually change from the original investment demand to a rigid need.
Since 2021, China's housing prices have undergone a significant correction, and so far, housing prices in various places have fallen by about 20%-30% or even more from their high points. Due to the loss of the attraction of profits, many investment properties have gradually faded or remained on the sidelines. In the coming 2024, you will observe that rigid demand and the desire to buy a house to improve the living environment will enter the market due to the favorable reasons of lower interest rates on real estate loans and lower down payment ratios. This year, the number of property speculators will gradually decrease, and buyers with rigid needs and improved living environment will become the main force to buy houses.
The third change: 2024 is expected to usher in a major reshuffle of real estate companies.
In fact, in 2023, many industry-leading real estate companies have defaulted on their debts and unfinished real estate. The main problem of many real estate companies, including Evergrande Real Estate, Country Garden and Sunac, is that these real estate companies have rapidly expanded the land purchase area and increased the amount of borrowing in the past few years, resulting in excessive debt ratios and not paying enough attention to the problem of corporate cash flow. Once the financing channels are blocked, or the housing sales situation is not ideal, it is very easy to cause the company's capital chain to break.
Therefore, it is expected that in 2024, real estate companies will face a complete reshuffle. Only those real estate companies that have always kept a tight grip on the scale of investment and debt burden, and at the same time have abundant cash flow, can continue to move forward. Some real estate companies, which once held the position of land king, were burdened with heavy debts and lacked stable cash flow, it is estimated that they may fall into bankruptcy or be acquired.
The fourth change: In the future, we will see many cities welcome again"Demolition waves"The pomp and circumstance.
A new wave in the country"Demolition waves"It may be happening again in major cities. According to the relevant regulations of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in 2024, two types of houses will be forcibly demolished: the first is the renovation of urban villages, and the second is the demolition of old and dangerous houses that are old and have potential safety hazards. Our country has chosen to launch this again"Demolition waves"The main reason is that the current real estate market conditions are somewhat sluggish, and we hope to create a certain amount of demand for housing through large-scale demolition operations, so as to achieve the stability of housing prices and hope to increase the transaction activity in the market.
The fifth change: housing prices in first-tier cities may continue to adjust in the future.
In the past, many people had the idea that the price of real estate in the core areas of first-tier cities would only increase, and there would be no possibility of a ** decline. However, in reality, the selling price of homes in these core areas has already started to decline. Taking Shanghai, China's largest city, as an example, most of the properties in the core area** are currently between 60,000 and 70,000 yuan per square meter, compared with more than 100,000 yuan per square meter during the highest house price period in 2021, the price of housing prices has dropped by more than 30%.
Combined with the current development trend of the real estate market, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities have fallen sharply, and housing prices in second-tier cities have also been adjusted accordingly. It is expected that by 2024, housing prices in the central areas of first-tier cities will continue**. Nonetheless, the decline in housing prices in the core areas of first-tier cities is likely to lag slightly behind that in second- and third-tier cities.
Change 6: Real estate in third- and fourth-tier cities will fall into"There is no market"dilemma.
Although there is no worry about the sellers of houses in the core areas of first-tier cities, as long as they are willing to sell at hundreds of thousands below the market level, there will always be people who are willing to take over. However, for third- and fourth-tier cities, the outflow trend is relatively large, and job opportunities are relatively limited. As a result, the trend of housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities will enter a long downward cycle. In addition, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities will also face"There is no market"It is still difficult to find buyers no matter how preferential the house is, and it is expected that the liquidity of real estate in third- and fourth-tier cities will be more severe this year. In this context, we recommend that friends who are not from families with rigid needs try to avoid investing in houses in third- and fourth-tier cities, so as not to fall into the dilemma that their assets cannot be realized.