If you want to know more exciting content, come and follow My SteelBackground:At the end of February, due to the impact of force majeure, some coal mines in Russia are expected to be tightened, driving overseas high-calorie coal to rise to the peak of sea freight, and the cost of imported coal remains high under the double blessing.
1. Force majeure in overseas markets High-calorie coal continues to rise
On the one hand, due to the impact of force majeure, individual coal mines have received restrictions on payment methods, and the overall impact needs to be observed; On the other hand, Russia** decided to re-implement a flexible coal export tariff policy from March 1, with the tax rate range set at 4%-7%, depending on the exchange rate of the national currency.
Due to the above two reasons, the international high-calorie coal market has been driven rapidly, and Australian thermal coal Q6000FOB is US$127 ton, which is US$4 per ton week-on-week; European thermal coal Q6000CIF**104 US dollars ton, week-on-week**9 US dollars ton.
In terms of Indonesian coal, due to the impact of Ramadan and precipitation, the spot circulation in the market is still limited; Moreover, the enthusiasm for the procurement of China's coastal power plants has not diminished, focusing on the inquiry of low-calorie coal, and the first foreign mines continue to be high. At present, Indonesia's Q3800FOB** is 60-61 US dollars ton, which is converted to 576 yuan ton.
Second, the cost of coal prices and freight rates is high, and the advantage of imported coal is gradually shrinking
In the past two weeks, as the recovery of domestic trade market demand is less than expected, upstream and downstream trading has stalemate, and coal prices have mainly fallen; At present, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal Q5000**810 yuan ton, week-on-week **20 yuan ton. At present, under the lack of demand and the gradual recovery, there is still room for coal prices.
In terms of the import market, the pace of long-term coal inquiries from coastal power plants has not decreased, and although the first merchants are bearish on the market outlook, they are supported by coal prices and freight costs. Q3800 bid price 560-585 yuan ton. Due to the low load of coastal power plants, the procurement demand is not urgent, so the acceptance of the first is limited, and the purchase price of Q3800 is between 560-565 yuan tons, which is converted into CFR about 689-69.$5 ton. At present, according to the single card conversion, Indonesian low-calorie coal is 002 yuan ton, there is still a certain amount of space. Due to the purchase of more Chinese buyers in the early stage and the influence of Russia, Australian thermal coal is now Q5500FOB**98 US dollars and 950 yuan ton CIF in China, which is the same as the domestic coal price and has no advantage.
Third, overseas ** contraction, international coal prices continue to run strongly
To sum up, the recent international market has been affected by many factors, **for two consecutive weeks**, and the rise is relatively fast; In addition, freight rates have also reached a new high level due to the increase in demand for oil** and ships, and continued to operate strongly. However, due to the lack of domestic trade market demand, coal prices are slow**; In the context of rising imports and falling domestic trade, the advantage of imported coal has gradually narrowed, and the demand for coal in power plants is insufficient, and the actual volume of goods received is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the international market will continue to operate strongly, which will support the stability of domestic imported coal prices. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the purchase price of power plants and the international supply and demand situation.
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