If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel market overview: Looking back on the whole of 2023, in the context of domestic coal mine production increase and import increase, coal prices have weakened as a whole, and June ushered in the lowest coal price of the year. As the expectation of a warm winter is confirmed, the market is still weak at the end of 2023, and participants are pessimistic. As of now, with less than a week left before the Spring Festival, market participants are quite divided on the trend of coal prices after the holiday, where will the market go? Please follow the author, with Shaanxi thermal coal as the center, ** post-holiday market. First, the pre-holiday market.
In the first half of January 2024, the trend of the previous year continued to decline, and in the second half of Yulin high-calorie coal began to exert force, the market began to improve, and most private coal mines completed the clearance in the coal price and entered the Spring Festival holiday. This wave of ** mainly to Shanxi customers as the main force, the last replenishment of the year ago, with the private coal mines have been on holiday, the downstream replenishment has also come to an end, the market began to appear a small **, the current overall coal price in the production area is stabilizing.
Second, after the holiday**.
The increase in Yulin coal prices in late January was mainly due to the following factors:
1. The previous downstream price reduction suspended procurement, resulting in tight inventory.
2. Centralized replenishment at the end of the year, mainly for Shanxi customers.
3. There was a 20-day phased production of cement in some northern regions from January 20 to February 10, and the demand rose.
The above conditions have promoted the increase in coal prices in late January, which has lasted for half a month, and has also laid the groundwork for the market outlook.
To sum up, the downstream non-electric terminal shutdown at the end of the year has caused market participants to be pessimistic about the market outlook, most companies are waiting for further downward adjustment, suspending procurement, and finally causing inventory tightness, followed by centralized procurement to support the production area of transportation, coupled with private small and medium-sized coal mines since January 15 began to have a holiday, resulting in a certain degree of tension. The holiday time of small and medium-sized private coal mines is relatively late, there are still fewer coal mines on the ninth day of the first month, and the first day of the year is still relatively tight, and high-calorie coal still has some support, and most of the coal mines resume work during the Lantern Festival, and the market supply and demand relationship may improve; On the other hand, today has reached the beginning of the Spring Festival, the temperature across the country will gradually warm, after the festival social power consumption will gradually reduce, power plants in the long-term association under the sufficient, replenishment demand will be further weakened, coupled with hydropower is expected to be stronger, low calorie coal market or will usher in
3. Summary. To sum up, the post-holiday thermal coal market in the first month of the ninth day of the holiday after the high card coal will still run steadily, low and medium calorie coal to maintain stable operation, after the fifteenth day of the first month, with the full resumption of work in coal mines, supply and demand ushered in the repair, the market will usher in a short period of weakness, March 15 North cement plant began production, in March, the demand for high calorie coal rose again, or will drive the ** upward. Disclaimer: MySteel strives to use the information accurately, objectively and fairly in the content and opinions expressed in the information, but does not guarantee whether it needs to be changed as necessary. The information provided by MySteel is for the customer's decision-making reference only, and does not constitute a direct recommendation for the customer's decision-making, and the customer should not replace its own independent judgment, and any decision made by the customer has nothing to do with mysteel. The copyright of this report belongs to mysteel, without permission, prohibited**, violators will be prosecuted.