[Disk analysis].
U.S. stocks are at a high level**, and A-shares have entered the March meeting and have begun to move steadily, with no clear investment direction. Northbound funds mainly had a small net inflow this week, and there was an obvious strength of capital undertaking, and the trading volume of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan many times, which also showed that there were signs of over-the-counter funds entering the market. The index has always had the right to protect the disk at a critical moment, and the pessimism of the market has improved, so we should focus on the good policy and news, which is expected to drive a new round of fermentation of money-making effect.
Ride a bull to see a bear spotBenefiting from the Lantern Festival around the tour and short-distance travel, the travel popularity is still high at the end of the Spring Festival holiday, and the level of domestic tourism machine wine after the Spring Festival has further declined. In 2024, the recovery process of China's inbound and outbound tourism market will be further accelerated, and the number of inbound and outbound tourists and international tourism revenue will exceed 2 respectively6.4 billion passengers, $107 billion. With the return of Chinese tourists to the global tourism market, catalyzed by a number of policies, outbound and inbound tourism are expected to enter an accelerated recovery channel.
The three major indexes collectively opened lower, the ChiNext index fell by more than 1%, and there were less than 300 red plates in the two cities. The military industry is a cyclical industry with a 5-year plan, and the development of the 14th Five-Year Plan industry can be compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan, and it is expected to usher in a two-year accelerated development period from 2024 to 2025. China Rare Earth Group recently held a special meeting on rare earth resource reserves and high-quality development at the headquarters to further enhance the ability to guarantee rare earth resources and the level of green and efficient development and utilization, and ensure that new breakthroughs are made in rare earth reserves and production.
The concept of liquid-cooled servers has rebounded rapidly, Uni-President Co., Ltd., Chuanrun Co., Ltd. 2 boards, Intel Technology has risen by more than 10%, Nvidia will launch B100 CPU, Nvidia will start from B100, and the heat dissipation technology of all products in the future will be changed from air cooling to liquid cooling. Due to the strong demand for AI, orders for HBM and DDR5 are expected to increase, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have strengthened their attention to the first-value DRAM products, and are considering increasing the investment in semiconductor wafers in the factory to produce high-value products such as HBM, DDR5 and LP-DDR5. The tourism hotel sector has moved up, Dalian Shengya daily limit, Xi'an tourism, Changbai Mountain, etc., this year, users who pay attention to travel products during the May Day period in advance have increased by more than half of the year, and more users pay attention to May Day travel products earlier.
* Stocks strengthened, gold and silver industry 2 boards, Chifeng**, Sichuan**, etc. have followed suit, the U.S. economic data exceeded expectations downward, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates within the year to consolidate again, superimposed on the NYCB turmoil again led to the market's concern about the U.S. banking and commercial real estate industry intensified, and domestic and foreign gold prices hit a new high. Flying car concept stocks** rose, Jindun shares 20cm limit, Musk's SpaceX-backed flying car company Alef Aeronautics said that its future electric vertical take-off and landing (EVTOL) car has received more than 2,850 pre-orders. The media sector bottomed out and rebounded, and many shares such as Palm Reading Technology and Cultural Investment Holdings recently released an AI-generated "Journey to the West" animated short film on the Internet, which is about 4 minutes long, based on the first episode of the original "Journey to the West", using AI to depict scenes such as Huaguo Mountain, Fairy Palace, and the city of the world.
GEM:
[**Prediction].
The Shanghai Composite Index opened low and went high on Tuesday, which was consistent with Monday from the disk trend, just a red plate, no obvious pull-up action, and no sharp fall. It is worth noting that the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has fallen a bit big! At present, financial stocks and heavyweight stocks help the index to stabilize, and small and medium-cap stocks are still significantly different. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3040 points.
The ChiNext index on Tuesday revolved around the red market**, which was evident on the 5-day line, and is now close to the 120-day line. On the one hand, it is driven by the positive external market, and on the other hand, the relevant positive promotion of the March meeting has changed. Also note here how will the new plate direction emerge? Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1830 points.
[Gold Rush Plan].
China's economy has gradually entered the stage of resumption of work after the holiday, and the policy expectations are heating up near the two sessions, and the market has gradually entered a positive feedback state of sentiment and **. After a long period of time, most sectors are currently at low valuations. As of late February, in terms of absolute valuations, banks, real estate, building decoration, steel, etc. were below 1x PB. Judging from the price-to-book ratio quantile of the past five and ten years, more than half of the industries are at the historical quantile level below 10%. Subsequently, as the liquidity shock gradually dissolves and corporate earnings improve, the market is expected to gradually bottom out.
The concepts of communication equipment, flying cars, and aviation in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the concepts of real estate, insurance, and ** are relatively large sectors with a relatively large net outflow of funds. Ride a bull to see a bear spotThe popularity of self-driving tours, self-guided tours, personalized customized tours, family parent-child tours, and night tours has given travel more abundant tourism consumption scenarios; The sinking effect of the tourism market has been significantly improved. Driven by favorable policies such as mutual visa exemption, customs clearance facilitation and the resumption of air routes, the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism has accelerated.
Under the background of China's mass tourism entering a new era of all-round development, the new changes on the supply side and the demand side are expected to promote the continuation of the overall service consumption boom. In the medium and long term, there will be structural changes in residents' consumption demand, and the demand for experiential consumption such as tourism will be strong, and the sector boom is expected to run through the whole year of 2024.
*According to the Ministry of Tourism, the 8-day Spring Festival holiday will be 47.4 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 343%, an increase of 19 on a comparable basis compared to the same period in 20190%。Customized tour orders increased by more than 5 times year-on-year, the trend of tourism consumption upgrading is obvious, the average price of ticket and entertainment orders doubled year-on-year, and the average per capita of customized tourists increased by 2% year-on-year.
China's entry into a deep aging society has brought significant business opportunities for silver tourism. According to the 2023 data of the Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in China has reached 154%, in line with the standard of a deep aging society. When the next generation of middle-aged and elderly people retire, they will have more leisure time and abundant funds, making tourism one of the main markets for silver consumption in the future.
The Spring Festival tourism data is hot, and the growth rate of medium and long-term tourism is even higher, and the year-on-year increase in tourism data is obvious. Under the influence of tourism, the hotel exceeded expectations, the catering estimate was basically in line with expectations, the Spring Festival holiday ended, and tourism consumption showed an escalating trend. A variety of tourism products combined with traditional festival experiences are expected to help local tourism demand continue to grow during subsequent holidays.
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