Hello everyone.
Today is a memorable day for Japan**.
The Nikkei hit a new high, reaching the 40,000-point level for the first time during trading hours.
Moreover, the Nikkei Stock Average on February 22 at the ** price;
It was the highest value at the peak of the bubble economy at the end of 1989.
A few years ago, many people were still talking about "Japan's lost thirty years", but how did Nikkei hit a new high in a few years?
Let's talk about why the Nikkei rose sharply this time.
Recently, the semiconductor industry in Nikkei has been so hot.
Now when you talk about the semiconductor industry, you may think of American companies such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia, and you may also think of TSMC on a certain island;
In short, it seems that Japanese semiconductor companies have no sense of existence.
But in fact, the Japanese semiconductor companies at that time were also the existence of hegemons.
In the 80s of the last century, Japan was very influential in the semiconductor industry.
To put it simply, 6 of the world's top 10 chip manufacturers at that time were from Japan, accounting for half of the country.
And then Japan is a little floating.
At that time, Japan felt that chip manufacturing was inseparable from itself, and began to have trouble with its "big brother" the United States.
As a result, he was taught a lesson by the eldest brother, and by the way, TSMC was supported, and Japan was almost kicked out of the global industrial chain.
So, this round of Japanese semiconductors is hot again, why?
To put it nicely, it is to abandon the previous arrogant misconception and resolve to integrate into the global industrial chain again;
To put it mildly, it is to completely realize that the United States is the big brother, and I can only admit it, at least there is soup to drink.
Semiconductors were the brightest pearl in the crown of science and technology back then.
It can be said that at this stage, there is no country in the world that can complete the whole process of top chips from scratch by itself.
In this industrial chain, there is ASML lithography machine in the Netherlands;
There are chip design companies in the United States to do the design;
There are Japanese companies that provide precision machine tools;
There are companies like TSMC to do manufacturing;
There are companies like Changdian Technology in China to carry out packaging and testing;
There are too many subdivisions that we won't list one by one.
In short, it is very important to enter the "circle" to make semiconductors at this stage, and the gatekeeper of the entire "circle" is the United States.
He lets you in, and you can enter;
If he won't let you in, then you can't help it.
So, rather than saying that Japan's semiconductors have reversed the mind, the United States has nodded and brought some resources to Japan.
Of course, the whole example of semiconductors can also be seen from the small.
Is it really a brotherhood between the United States and Japan?
Not. Whether it was Pearl Harbor or the original purple bomb over Hiroshima, or the beginning of Japan's economic decline - the "Plaza Accord";
In short, there are a lot of dirty things between them.
It's just that the eldest brother is now spending all his energy on dealing with us, and it is inevitable to get together with Japan.
In addition, Japan has now clearly recognized its position as a "chess piece", and at present, it seems that it is also gladly accepting it.
Therefore, with the good news of semiconductors, and the global inflation situation in recent years, it is reasonable that this round of Nikkei has taken advantage of the wind.
Of course, after 30 years of loss, Japan's economy is also on the lookout for an upward trend after a long period of hibernation.
Nikkei as a whole, the valuation is relatively low.
The Nikkei 225 is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 171 times, which is lower than the average of the past and 10 years.
Moreover, we must know that after such a long rise, the index has only returned to the level of 34 years ago.
In the past 34 years, the S&P 500 has risen 34 times, the German index has risen 10 times, and the UK has risen 25 times, Hong Kong stocks rose 46 times ......
So, is the Japanese economy coming out of the "lost era" now?
If you want to answer this question, you have to talk about how Japan was "lost" back then.
There are two main factors:
On the one hand, in the 90s of the last century, Japan's own economic bubble burst, and soon it was the Asian financial crisis;
Then the Internet bubble of the U.S. stock market burst, and a set of combination punches down, which really stunned Japan;
On the other hand, after entering the 21st century, Japan has not grasped the industrial trend of the Internet, and its economic transformation has basically stagnated.
In addition, the financial crisis of 2008 dealt a major blow to Japan's export industry.
To sum up, its own economic crisis + missed industrial development opportunities have led to a decline in the Japanese economy.
Judging from the current situation, objectively speaking, these two factors have improved to a certain extent.
First of all, the impact of Japan's economic crisis has been digested for so long, and it is almost the same;
Secondly, of course, Japan will not be able to dominate the next round of AI G life, but this time it is still okay to take a ride and drink a few more sips of soup.
Finally, let's talk about the impact of the current round of Japan's economic recovery on China.
Let's start with my opinion:
As long as we firmly do a good job in our own development, other things will not affect our road to rejuvenation.
As mentioned earlier, in the semiconductor industry chain, Japan can once again obtain the qualification to "enter the circle" by bowing its head;
However, this approach has no reference for us.
We don't want to do it behind closed doors like we did in Japan;
In the face of US suppression, what we want to achieve is "high-level opening up".
It's a hard but right path.
We are a big country with 5,000 years of civilization and 9.6 million square kilometers, and we can only go our own way.
The road is long;
Only persistence.