2024 is the Year of the Dragon, I would like to call it the year of the new energy vehicle market!
In this year, we are very likely to see the following series of events: the large-scale rout of fuel vehicles, especially joint venture fuel vehicles, and marginal brands such as Korean and French will usher in a life and death test; Whether it is a fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, the price will usher in the latest low, and so on the party ushered in the biggest victory in the past three or four years; ......The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, and for every two cars sold, one will be a new energy vehicle, which is also the flog set by "Brother Boatman" at the beginning of the year.
The fuse that induces the possible occurrence of this series of events is BYD's "lead and surrender action" without warning, Qin plus, destroyer 05 and subsequent models take the lead in launching a blitzkrieg with dolphins in the name of "glory version", assaulting the fuel vehicle camp within the 100,000 level, and the whole network is shocked! And BYD's operation has also directly set off an era of "electricity is lower than oil" in which new energy vehicle companies are competing with each other.
From the initial "electricity is more expensive than oil" to last year's "oil and electricity parity", and then to today's "electricity is lower than oil" ......New energy vehicles are gradually becoming popular from the image of high "oil". There are many factors that promote this change, including the maturity and stability of the new energy vehicle industry chain, especially the return of raw material prices to "rationality", which is said to drop by 80% per ton; The significant increase in consumers' willingness to buy cars has promoted the economies of scale of car companies, and the frequent technological breakthroughs have reduced the cost of car manufacturing. Of course, there is also the help of those car companies who want to go further in the stock era, and the determination and attitude of crazy involution to the point of no roll can make the habit lie flat.
You know, the current new energy track has long evolved from the previous "blue ocean" to the "dead sea", the car companies are fighting each other in the limited market resources, the loser is eliminated, and the car companies that stay in the ring continue to fight for more market share, which can be seen from the extraordinarily aggressive sales targets of major car companies in 2024, BYD challenges the sales target of 4.50-5 million vehicles, an increase of more than 50%, and the annual sales targets of Changan and Chery are also more than 2 million. Li Auto, a new car-making force with a profit of more than 10 billion yuan last year, will also challenge the sales target of 800,000 units this year, a year-on-year increase of 113%.
Car companies are full of energy, but their market share is limited, and they can't be fed at all. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in 2023 is 94950,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 379%, with a market share of 316%。At this point, the market sales are not enough, and the above car companies will divide it. Moreover, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China National Association, also said that the automobile market will show slow growth in 2024. This means that the growth rate of market sales will slow down this year, and the new energy vehicle market will show a trend of oversupply and insufficient demand in the short term.
So friends can understand why "Brother Boatman" said at the beginning of the year that "the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year will exceed 50%", that's right! Since the current new energy vehicle market has become saturated, then we can expand it, as for who is the expander, new energy vehicle companies can't help but look at the side of the leisurely fuel vehicle! The "deer" in the era of the heroes competing for the deer has become the focus of everyone's sharpening of knives.
The product parameters are weaker than the new energy vehicle "three mother" models, in the last year's cumulative sales are almost one million, obviously in the eyes of netizens is already a "backward product" of fuel vehicles, why can the most popular consumer A-class car market lie down to make money? The reason is very simple, it is a skillful price reduction**.
However, this kind of once invincible gameplay is now ineffective, because now new energy vehicles are playing more fierce and crazy battles. The first class of battery raw materials makes the price adjustment space more abundant for vehicle companies, and the lithium carbonate that was once as high as 600,000 tons has now dropped to less than 100,000 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to 1The cost of 750,000 yuan, these extra profits are invested in the first war, which is a lot higher than the cost performance.
In addition, in addition to the return of battery raw materials to rationality, the reform of car companies to improve operating efficiency, the economies of scale of new energy products and the cost reduction brought about by technological transformation can also further share the pressure brought by the first war, and finally complete the role change of "electricity is lower than oil".
In fact, once the slogan of "electricity is lower than oil" appears in the automotive industry, it almost means that the era of the fuel vehicle market occupying the right to speak in the market is coming to an end. In the past, people may give priority to fuel vehicles because of the price, but when the price of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is the same, consumers who are affected by new energy vehicles (including but not limited to friends around to buy new energy vehicles, friends discuss the advantages of new energy vehicles, etc.) will also try to understand new energy vehicles when they see the car test drive.
This understanding, the cognitive gap came out in an instant. Taking the A-class sedan market, which is currently hot, as an example, the 698 Qin Plus DMI-i Glory Edition is better than Nissan Sylphy in terms of intelligent comfort, driving experience and car cost.
In the case that the product power is fully surpassed, what does Sylphy take and the new energy body? Follow the trend and reduce the price and play 698? But the problem is that even if the price is comparable, consumers are more willing to choose new energy vehicles only in terms of car cost.
New energy vehicles are different from the product contrast of fuel vehicles, with the successive entry of BYD Hantang Glory Edition, Song Plus Song Pro Glory Edition, it will inevitably set off a monstrous wave in the automobile market within 200,000, and the market happens to be the basic market sales of fuel vehicles, especially joint venture fuel vehicles, in the face of this wave of impact, even if the fuel vehicle is also playing the first war, but the product is not strong, it is likely to play a lonely, coupled with the collective failure of the joint venture brand in the new energy track, the probability of reversal is very small.
With the rise of an era, the old order will inevitably perish. I have witnessed the rise of China's smartphone industry, and I hope to see the rise of China's new energy vehicle industry!