At the beginning, some people **Ukraine could survive the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for a year, and most people were skeptical about it. After all, the disparity in strength between Russia and Ukraine is huge, and it is not easy to smooth it out.
However, Ukraine has proven to have survived this hurdle, and the fight with Russia continues. This is mainly due to NATO's strong assistance to Ukraine. This situation has triggered Western experts to think that Taiwan may become "Ukraine's second".
In other words, if the PLA attacks Taiwan, NATO can assist Taiwan ** in a long-range way, so as to delay the PLA's attack.
However, the RAND think tank in the United States has denied this view before receiving a response from us. The agency believes that the Ukrainian model cannot be replicated, noting that if the US military wants to defeat the mainland in the Taiwan Strait, it will need to pay the price of at least 3,200 lives!
The Ukraine model cannot be imitated, and the RAND think tank, a top military think tank in the United States, said that the RAND think tank is the most well-known decision-making and consulting institution in the United States and even the world, and has played an important role in major wars such as the Gulf War and the Iraq War.
The RAND think tank, which brings together top military experts from the United States, is trustworthy in its military deduction and strategic level. There is some truth to their claim that the Ukrainian model cannot be replicated.
So, will Taiwan become a "second Ukraine"? After all, Taiwan's military strength should not be underestimated.
Based on detailed data analysis, the RAND think tank compared the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine with the confrontation between Chinese mainland and Taiwan. The results show that there is a clear gap between the two.
First of all, Ukraine has a deep defensive depth, and the battlefield is mainly concentrated on land, which gives Ukraine an effective ability to resist. However, in the Taiwan Strait region, the protagonists of the war have changed to the navy and air force, and among these services, the mainland far surpasses Taiwan in terms of number and advancement.
The RAND think tank estimates that Taiwan may not even be able to sustain more than a week of fighting without direct U.S. intervention.
If war breaks out, our military will be able to encircle the island of Taiwan in a short period of time and concentrate the rocket force and naval and air forces, so that Taiwan's defense facilities will be wiped out in an instant. Is it difficult for NATO countries to aid Taiwan**?
But the problem is that it is a question whether the ** of NATO countries can be successfully delivered to the defenders of Taiwan. The reason why Ukraine has been able to get a steady stream of NATO** is because they have NATO countries as their backing, ** can be directly delivered to the front line by land transport.
Taiwan's geographical location allows the PLA to easily cut off its access to foreign military supplies, and a strong firepower blockade will make foreign transportation extremely difficult.
At the same time, due to the distance from NATO countries, the likelihood of foreign intervention is minimal. As long as our military acts decisively, the collapse of Taiwan will be inevitable. Therefore, the RAND think tank is right to believe that the Ukrainian model cannot be replicated in Taiwan.
Still, the optimism of the RAND think tank seems overly idealistic and in line with Americans' usual optimism.
Both the RAND think tank and Western experts believe that in order to protect the US military stationed in Taiwan, it is indispensable to directly send troops to intervene. However, given China's military prowess, the RAND think tank suggested that the United States must use a sufficiently superior naval and air force.
According to the RAND think tank, if China and the United States clash in 2026, the US military needs to deploy seven aircraft carrier battle groups in the Taiwan Strait to ensure its air and sea supremacy.
Although our army already has three aircraft carriers at this time, the RAND think tank believes that the US military still has an advantage, because their strength will surpass ours. In order to improve the odds of victory, the RAND think tank also recommended that the United States gather thousands of military aircraft and mobilize the armies of its allies to participate in the war.
Still, the U.S. has won at a great cost, with analysis by the RAND think tank showing that even if the U.S. military were able to defeat China in the Taiwan Strait, it would have to pay the price of sinking two aircraft carriers, killing 3,200 people, and destroying all of Taiwan's infrastructure.
Moreover, Japan, which participated in the war, would also lose more than 100 warplanes and 26 warships. As soon as the results of the RAND think tank's deduction were announced, many American netizens were surprised, who were originally influenced by the concept of American supremacy and felt optimistic, but did not expect to pay such a huge price.
Although the ** of the RAND think tank looks quite optimistic, the outside world sees it differently. Assuming that the US military dares to intervene in the war, then the number of ** will be far more than 3,200.
You know, an American aircraft carrier has a full crew of more than 5,000 people. According to the estimates of the RAND think tank, the US military will lose two aircraft carriers, which means that the number of ** will exceed 10,000.
So, how did the figure of 3,200 come about? Could it be that all the American soldiers were rescued before the aircraft carrier sank? After all, as long as the US aircraft carrier dares to enter the Taiwan Strait, it will immediately be attacked by the fire of our rocket forces, and at that time even a bird will not be able to fly out, let alone a person.
Although the RAND think tank has a certain degree of ability, it still lacks objectivity in dealing with the problems of the United States itself. With the substantial increase in China's military strength, the idea of the US military attempting to confront our military in the Taiwan Strait region in order to achieve victory is basically impossible to realize.
Moreover, China and the United States are both nuclear powers, and in the event of a full-scale war, the number of people will be far more than 3,200. Therefore, I advise the United States not to do anything that harms others and is not beneficial to itself, otherwise the consequences will be unimaginable, and I am afraid that it will not be possible to stop adding two more zeros.
What do you think about the results of the RAND think tank's deduction in the United States, which has aroused everyone's attention and heated discussions?