Recently, the fourth meeting of the ** Financial and Economic Committee proposed to encourage and guide the renewal of new large-scale equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods. This is following the first economic work conference, the first blockbuster meeting once again put forward and made detailed arrangements, which has also aroused widespread attention in the market.
Since 2008, the leading and financially supported household appliances went to the countryside and traded-in, after a lapse of 12 years, at the highest level of financial and economic meetings, it was mentioned that "to speed up the upgrading, trade-in" revealed what signals? How is it different from the previous formulation? What trends and business opportunities does this overweight indicate for the industries involved?
There are also market participants who have speculated whether this move can be comparable to hundreds of billions of yuan of automobiles and household appliances going to the countryside in 2008? Are trade-in subsidies really coming?
#Why is the "trade-in" implemented?
The ** Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 proposed when deploying the economic work in 2024 that it is necessary to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in with the improvement of technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards as the traction.
The fourth meeting of the ** Finance Committee held recently mainly emphasized the following:
Accelerating product upgrading is an important measure to promote high-quality development, and it is necessary to encourage and guide the renewal of equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods on a new scale. Logistics is the "tendon" of the real economy, connecting production and consumption, domestic trade and foreign trade, we must effectively reduce the logistics cost of the whole society, enhance the core competitiveness of the industry, and improve the efficiency of economic operation.
The implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods will effectively promote investment and consumption, which will benefit both the present and the long-term. It is necessary to do a good job in policy combination, promote the continuous increase in the proportion of advanced production capacity, more high-quality durable consumer goods into people's lives, waste resources are recycled, and the quality and level of national economic circulation have been greatly improved. It is necessary to adhere to the market-oriented, first-class guidance, insist on encouraging the advanced, eliminate the backward, adhere to the standard guidance, and orderly improvement.
It is necessary to promote the renewal and technological transformation of all kinds of production equipment and service equipment, encourage the trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and household appliances, and promote the trade-in of durable consumer goods. Promote large-scale recycling, and strengthen the development of "new +** logistics system and new models. For the trade-in of consumer goods, it is necessary to adhere to the linkage between finance and local governments, and coordinate and support all links in the whole chain to benefit consumers more.
Reducing the logistics cost of the whole society is an important measure to improve the efficiency of economic operation. The starting point and foothold of logistics cost reduction is to serve the real economy and the people, the basic premise is to maintain the proportion of manufacturing industry is basically stable, the main way is to adjust the structure, promote reform, and effectively reduce transportation costs, warehousing costs, and management costs. Optimize the transportation structure, strengthen the "road to rail" and "road to water", deepen the reform of the comprehensive transportation system, and form a unified, efficient, competitive and orderly logistics market. Optimize the main trunk channel, open up the blocking points, improve the modern trade circulation system, and encourage the development of new logistics models that combine with the platform economy, low-altitude economy, and unmanned driving. Coordinate the planning of logistics hubs, optimize the construction of transportation infrastructure and the layout of major productive forces, and vigorously develop the airport economy and port economy.
"This move is not only a practical need to stimulate investment and consumption, but also an important measure to promote high-quality development. ”Industry analysts pointed out that the current consumer consumption and enterprise investment willingness is not strong, and promoting the renewal of new large-scale equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods will help to coordinate the expansion of effective demand and supply-side structural reform, consolidate the foundation for economic recovery, and accelerate the green transformation of the economy. "These blockbuster deployments mean that this year's pro-consumption policies will be launched in advance in key areas, which is conducive to boosting consumer demand and promoting the macroeconomic recovery in the first half of the year. ”
In fact, the relevant departments also mentioned "trade-in" when deploying this year's consumption promotion measures. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Commerce said that it would take the improvement of technology, energy consumption, emissions and other standards as the traction to promote the opening of the difficulties of trade-in, stabilize and expand traditional consumption, and better meet the needs of consumer goods replacement and upgrading.
#How to leverage the "upgrading" consumer market?
According to the data of the Ministry of CommerceIn 2023, the number of cars in China will be about 3400 million units, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and other major categories of household appliances more than 3 billion units, some household appliances have been used for more than 10 or 20 years, and the demand and potential for upgrading are great.
Just a month earlier, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office: "We will promote the trade-in of automobile appliances, and this year will be the focus of promoting consumption." Statistics show thatChina's automotive and home appliance market hasFrom the era of pure increment, we have entered the era of coexistence of increment and stock
According to the calculations of well-known financial commentators,If the follow-up policy effect of this meeting is significant, then it may bring nearly 03%-0.5% growth rate. In other words,According to last year's GDP of 126 trillion yuan, there will be an increase of nearly 400 billion yuan to more than 600 billion yuan. According to experts, there will be specific favorable policies to promote the trade-in in the near future, and the momentum of consumption growth may be stronger. So, how to effectively leverage the two markets of increment and stock?
Looking back at 2008, "household appliances to the countryside" has become a familiar "synonym" for the fiscal policy to save the market. At that time, in the face of the global economic crisis and the huge pressure on exports, the "four trillion" and household appliances went to the countryside and the old were exchanged for the new, which greatly promoted the driving force of investment and household consumption, and the boosting effect in the domestic demand market was more obvious. In terms of expanding domestic demand, especially the vast number of counties, villages, and towns have become huge potential markets for consumption, such as the policy of "sending household appliances to the countryside," and peasants can be given a 13 percent financial subsidy for purchasing household electrical appliances.
After more than ten years, the product has been popularized and the market tends to be saturated, can the new round of trade-in achieve expectations?
There is a view that the "reuse" and "green circular economy" of waste consumer goods will promote the establishment of a green consumption model and become a new growth point. At the same time, China is entering a quasi-developed country society, and the high-quality development of social economy must abandon the low-efficiency development model of "extensive" production and "low-level" consumption, which is also in line with the development concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets".
* The fourth meeting of the Finance and Economics Committee specifically proposed to promote large-scale recycling and strengthen the development of "new +** logistics system and new models. In this regard, experts analyze that improving the system of renewable resources such as waste household appliances and furniture can improve the whole life cycle service of durable consumer goods, effectively solve consumers' worries, and better release consumption potential; On the other hand, it can smooth the consumption cycle of household appliances and furniture, promote the efficiency of resource recycling, and optimize the consumption environment for trade-in.
#Play a good policy combination to ultimately benefit consumers
Obviously, the relevant policies from 2008 to 2009 are more to solve the problem of market gap with the old for the new, and the new round of upgrading, trade-in is to achieve further consumption upgrading on the basis of comprehensive popularization.
It should be said that the trade-in of consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances not only requires the coordinated linkage of production, supply and marketing, upstream and downstream, government, enterprises and people, online and offline, but also comprehensive policies. How to achieve the ultimate goal of "benefiting consumers" as called for by the fourth meeting of the Finance Committee? How to play a good policy combination?
In recent years, relevant policies such as home appliances going to the countryside and equipment renewal have been introduced one after another
In September 2022, the National Standing Committee proposed to "support the renewal and transformation of equipment in areas with weak economic and social development", and since then, there has been a special re-loan for equipment renovation and transformation;
The 2023 "** Work Report" emphasizes the need to encourage green smart home appliances to go to the countryside and trade in the old for the new;
In July 2023, the Ministry of Commerce and 13 other departments issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Promote Household Consumption", which proposed to effectively improve consumption conditions and improve the network of waste materials.
On the eve of the Spring Festival in 2024, the Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments jointly issued a notice to make specific arrangements for the "On Improving the System of Renewable Resources such as Waste Household Appliances and Furniture".
It should be said that encouraging the expansion of investment and consumption upgrading is still the basic strategy of the state. With the introduction of more policies in the future, some specific measures will be implemented quicklyIn particular, tax and fee reductions will also be one of the main policy tools。Some institutions have analyzed that ** and local finance is expected to provide a certain scale of financial subsidies, referring to the subsidy scale of similar policies in the past, this time the policy covers a wider range and is more powerfulThe current round of trade-in subsidies may reach the level of 100 billion yuan。In addition, it is expected that financial institutions will also launch or upgrade relevant consumer loan varieties, and relevant manufacturers will also take advantage of the trend to launch a number of preferential measures.
There is also analysis**, on the whole, a new round of trade-in in a wider range and more fields will effectively leverage residents' consumption. ExpectedIn 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to reach 6About 5%, 05 percentage points. "In the context of a sharply higher base, this year-on-year growth rate will be basically the same as the previous year, which means that the growth momentum of household consumption will be stronger this year. ”