Technology
i.Introduction.
In today's digital era, chips are the core of modern technology, and the pattern and development of the foundry market have a crucial impact on a country's scientific and technological strength. Among them, TSMC, as a leader in the chip foundry market, has achieved remarkable results in recent years. However, after the glorious moment, with the outbreak of the "core war" between China and the United States, TSMC is facing a series of difficulties. At the same time, the mainland's chip industry is gradually rising, showing a vibrant scene. This article will delve into the rise and challenges of TSMC, as well as the development of the chip industry in mainland China, and look forward to the prospects of China's semiconductor industry.
ii.TSMC's glorious moment.
In the global core shortage environment in 2021, TSMC has achieved great success. Its market value has soared, holding more than 55% of the chip foundry share, becoming a leader in the chip foundry market. This success not only demonstrates TSMC's strength, but also makes its prospects promising. However, such a glorious moment later came with a great challenge.
iii."Abandon China and invest in the United States" and the outbreak of challenges.
In the context of the outbreak of the "core war" between China and the United States, TSMC has chosen a controversial path - "abandoning China and investing in the United States". Not only went to the United States to build a factory, but also cut off the supply of Chinese enterprises at a critical moment, which caused many questions in China. This move of "abandoning China and investing in the United States" has cast a shadow on TSMC in the domestic market, and people have begun to think about whether this strategy is in line with the company's long-term development interests.
iv.The emergence of overcapacity and dilemma.
However, after "abandoning China and investing in the United States", TSMC did not usher in the expected good days. During the 2022-2023 period, there will be a sudden overcapacity of advanced process chips, which will lead to frequent cuts by American companies such as Qualcomm and AMD. TSMC's capacity utilization rate has plummeted, especially the 7nm process, which once fell below 80%. In order to reduce losses, TSMC has repeatedly reduced its annual expenses and even shut down some EUV lithography machines. At the time when the U.S. factory had just completed the relocation ceremony, the United States "turned its face", the subsidy had not arrived for a long time, and it was required to share confidential data of chips, and TSMC fell into an unprecedented predicament.
v.The rise of the chip industry in mainland China.
In contrast, the mainland chip industry is showing a vibrant scene. SMIC and other companies have invested a total of 170 billion yuan, expanded production four times in the past three years, and the monthly production capacity of mature process chips has reached an astonishing 1400 million. From June 2022 to the end of 2023, the cumulative number of imported chips cut by Chinese companies exceeded 160 billion, which became the main reason for the decline in chip sales of American companies. Despite being suppressed by the United States and the West, the mainland chip industry has shown strong resilience and steady development.
vi.TSMC's counterattack and new hope.
However, unexpectedly, TSMC ushered in a moment of counterattack when faced with difficulties. Orders from American companies such as AMD have led to a rapid increase in TSMC's capacity utilization. After entering 2024, industry giants such as Apple and Intel have also placed orders with TSMC. Up to now, TSMC's orders for 3nm 5nm chips have been lined up throughout 2024, and more than 100,000 wafers will be delivered per month, an increase of up to 200% year-on-year. This wave of orders has allowed TSMC to re-establish confidence in the market and become the focus of attention in the industry again.
vii.Impact on SMIC and other domestic OEMs.
However, TSMC's counterattack does not mean that the mainland chip industry is under threat. China's semiconductor market is still in short supply, and domestic lithography machine technology has advanced by leaps and bounds in recent years. China has the world's largest semiconductor consumer market, and since 2019, the import scale of integrated circuits has exceeded the $400 billion mark. Mainland chip foundries still have sufficient orders. Especially in the field of mature chips, SMIC and other companies have maintained long-term good cooperative relations with domestic customers, and their industry influence and status are almost unshakable.
viii.Prospects and future challenges.
Looking ahead, although China's semiconductor industry still faces challenges in the blockade of lithography machines, it is expected to go hand in hand in various segments. China's semiconductor industry has great potential to break through the blockade of lithography machines, and the growing demand for semiconductors in the consumer market has provided a huge impetus for the development of the industry. However, the far-reaching impact of the Sino-US "core war" on the industrial landscape is still unknown, and China's semiconductor industry needs to remain highly vigilant and formulate effective response strategies.
ix.Conclusion
Based on the above analysis, China's semiconductor industry is facing opportunities and dilemmas for its rise. TSMC's experience shows that even in glorious moments, it is difficult to avoid facing market volatility and external pressures. The rise of the mainland chip industry shows strong resilience and irreversible trends. China's semiconductor industry should take TSMC's predicament as a warning, maintain the healthy development of the industry through continuous technological innovation, market expansion and international cooperation, and achieve the goal of great rejuvenation
Note at the end of the article]: The above analysis is only a view of the current situation, the development of the industry is affected by a variety of factors, and the future situation is still uncertain.