What is Type L?
It's called L-shaped recession, which is actually a mild expression of economic recession; The L-shape is defined as the bottom of the economy, in fact, from the perspective of the trend, it can also be the top.
Netizens who play** should feel that the trend has been very strong, and the attribute of ** is always **, suddenly a top appeared, and it has been sideways, neither broken, nor out of the upward backlash, what is this feeling? It's cold and dangerous at high altitudes.
Of course, the growth of the economy is different from **, playing the game of long and short reversal; The economy has emerged, but it will face a long cycle, and it will take a considerable amount of time to repair the income and liability sheets of enterprises, will it take 30 years?
Yao Yang recently has a term called the "super real estate cycle", which refers to real estate, which can also be said to be the performance of the overall economy. China is an economy built on houses, and the impact of real estate and related industrial chains on GDP is as high as more than local fiscal revenue comes from real estate, and the liquidity of ordinary people is locked in real estate; The real estate has entered a super cycle, and the economy must have maintained a long-term horizontal posture, so it has not come out of the weak recovery.
Is China's economic growth l-shaped?
Not quite, it depends on how you want to explain it.
If you want to put it mildly, then, China's economic growth is positive, there is no negative value, so the statistic of the Bureau of Statistics is that "China's economy is generally stable and improving"; If you want to make a forward-looking expression, then, whether the economy is in recession is not a positive comparison, but a trend, whether it is lower than the potential economic growth rate for a long time, if it is lower, it is L-shaped.
In fact, to talk about the trend, it is really not l-shaped, because the growth rate is not horizontal, but all the way down, from the double digits before the year, began to protect, protect, protect, the annual precursor has not been kept, the May economic meeting can be said to be a full fight, the result of the fourth quarter of the cliff, barely held, this year is not a problem, after all, it is relative to last year's weaker year-on-year, next year is likely to be lower, that is, the current downward trend.
As for the future trend of China's economy, Western countries generally believe that the continuation of China's economic growth rate is inevitable; Chinese scholars generally believe that the continued growth rate of the US economy is inevitable. This kind of stance is not very important, economic growth is full of uncertainties, the United States did not collapse in the third quarter, reaching the level of India and even as high as China is likely to sit back and see, each with its own magical powers.
Are we concerned about how the economy will go next year?
Historically, if the economic growth rate declines, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will be implemented, and this has been done for many years, and as a result of expansion, the economy is hot, and the price is inflation, and inflation is too high, and if it exceeds what is tolerable, a contractionary monetary policy will be adopted; Thus, it constitutes a kind of cyclical **.
Well, there are too many reasons to enter a new cycle, break the downtrend, and get out of the l-shaped. The year-end debt is a strong signal, and with the addition of 1 trillion national bonds, our fiscal deficit to GDP ratio has reached 38%, breaking a long-held line, shows that there is a strong urge to expand, whether it will cause inflation or not, which is a sign of optimism for companies.
If you are optimistic, what is the most worrying thing?
The most worrying thing is a phenomenon that has occurred frequently in recent years: policy failures. In August, the real estate was pushed, the first-tier cities recognized the housing and did not recognize the loan, and the result was that the market's response was far less than expected, if the year, the implementation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the implementation of strong stimulus to the economy, inflation suddenly rose, and the economic growth rate still did not go up, what would this mean? The needles were pricked, the medicine was taken, and the stubborn disease was not resolved.
This will mean that China's structural overcapacity has touched on a deeper problem, and the systemic contradictions in the economy are unsolvable.
Real estate has entered the impossible triangle: it can't be sold, it must be built, and it can't be lowered; If you can't sell it, reduce the land**, no, without the land transfer fee, it is difficult for the finance to operate normally; Then reduce the price, no, who will take the land if the price is reduced?
China's economy has also entered an impossible triangle, stabilizing growth, employment and prices; Steady growth depends on investment, but the dual economic structure determines that resources cannot be transmitted to private enterprises and people's livelihood, and people's income cannot catch up with growth, which will inevitably expand overcapacity; Overcapacity is directly manifested in private enterprises, almost all enterprises are laying off employees and reducing salaries, and how to protect jobs? Then reduce taxes and increase the fiscal deficit, which is also problematic, and will eventually cause inflation, and how to stabilize prices?
Next year will be the year of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, which is a good thing.
The biggest concern is that inflation has suddenly risen, and the economic growth rate has not yet risen.
That's a no-brainer.