The reshuffle of the new energy vehicle industry is accelerating.
Author |Shengma Finance Zhou Ruijun
Edit|Ouyang Wen
Shengma Finance observed that the new energy vehicle market will be surging in 2023, and compared with 2022, the industry's best war and automobile quality issues are still the focus of attentionIn this year, the industry has also ushered in many new changes and trends, such as the entry of new players, the further promotion of intelligence, and the companies in the industrial chain have sought to go overseas. With the intensification of competition, the industry pattern of new energy vehicles is also being further reshaped, and we will summarize the trend of the new energy vehicle industry from the major events that occurred this year.
Trend 1: The tide of price reductions is coming, and the profit road is long and difficult
Event: Tesla price cuts
Entering 2023, affected by the termination of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, more than a dozen car companies, including BYD, Volkswagen, and Chery, have successively announced price increases for their new energy vehicles.
Tesla, which has already made a profit, reversed the operation and announced the price reduction of its model 3 and Model Y, with the largest reduction reaching 360,000 yuan, 480,000 yuan, and try to further compete for market share by cutting prices. This is also Tesla's second large-scale direct price cut in four months, following October 2022.
In mid-August 2023, 8 car companies, including Tesla, Zeekr, Leap, Nezha, Ora, SAIC MG, SAIC Volkswagen, and Chery New Energy, have launched relevant price reduction measures. Towards the end of the year, the continuous ** war in the middle of the year has further escalated. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 20 car companies have enabled the best means.
Shengma micro review:Tesla's price cut caused by the first war is triggering a chain reaction in the market, a new round of competition for the new energy vehicle market is about to start, but not all players are supporting the first war, at present, most of the new energy vehicle companies are in a situation of selling one and losing one, in 2024, with the further continuation of the "** war", the Matthew effect of the industry's strong Hengqiang will also be further presented, and even lead to some car companies being overwhelmed by excessive competitive pressure, and fall halfway.
Trend 2: The industry pattern is further reshaped
Event: WM Motor announced bankruptcy and the withdrawal of the joint venture brand from China, creating an increase in sales of second-generation car companies
In 2023, the reshuffle of new car-making forces will intensify, and on October 9, Tianyancha APP showed that WM Motor Technology Group added a new application for bankruptcy review information. According to the information, the bankruptcy review was applied by WM Motor Technology Group itself, and the court handled by the Shanghai No. 3 Intermediate People's Court. On the morning of the next day, WM Motor issued a statement on its official WeChat, admitting that it had submitted an application for "pre-reorganization" to the court on the 7th, and hoped to achieve the goal of "comprehensively optimizing various departments and business segments to reduce costs, improve efficiency and achieve sustainable development" through pre-reorganization.
On the other hand, many joint venture car companies have announced their withdrawal from the Chinese marketFollowing the regrettable withdrawal of Suzuki, Renault, Fiat, Acura, and Jeep from the Chinese market, GAC Mitsubishi also announced its withdrawal from the Chinese market in 2023. But at the same time, in 2023, the sales of second-generation car companies have increased significantly. Since June 2023, the sales volume of VOYAH automobiles, which was born from Dongfeng Motor, has been month-on**. Zhiji Auto, a joint venture between SAIC, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Alibaba, has topped the sales list of medium and large electric SUVs for six consecutive weeks. It took only 14 months for the sales of Deep Blue Automobile, which was incubated by Changan Automobile, to exceed 100,000 units.
Shengma micro review:At present, the pattern of new energy vehicles has not yet been "finalized", and the gap between the echelon players is not large, with the addition and exit of more players, in 2024, the market pattern of new energy vehicles will further usher in changes.
Trend 3: New Internet players enter the market, and automotive intelligence accelerates
Event: Xiaomi, Huawei make cars
On November 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 377th batch of "Announcement on Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products", including two cars with the product trademark "Xiaomi". On December 28, Xiaomi's first car SU7 was released, dropping a "shock bomb" in the automotive industry. Lei Jun, Chairman and CEO of Xiaomi Group, focused on the intelligent technology of the new car. Among them, the investment in autonomous driving alone has reached 4.7 billion yuan, and the team size exceeds 1,000 people, and its goal is to enter the first camp of the industry in 2024.
At the same time, Xiaomi Auto also released autonomous driving technologies such as zoom BEVs, super-resolution occupancy network technologies, and large road models. Among them, the urban navigation assistance NOA system is planned to be launched in 100 cities by the end of 2024.
In the future, Huawei's core technologies related to automobiles, including intelligent driving and Hongmeng cockpit, will be independent in the new company, and Changan Automobile will account for 40% of the shares in this new company. In addition, Huawei has also issued invitations to Cialis (601127), Chery, JAC, and BAIC to open their shares, and hopes that China FAW Group will join.
Shengma micro review:With the addition of technology giants such as Huawei and Xiaomi, China's new energy vehicles have been injected with more "Internet genes", accelerating from electrification to a new highland of intelligence.
Trend 4: Assisted driving and city speed competition
Event: Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Changan Automobile, Jihu Automobile and other domestic and foreign auto brands have announced that they have successfully obtained L3 test licenses
On December 22, Changan Automobile announced that it had successfully obtained 17 L3 autonomous driving road test licenses for high-speed roads, becoming the first and most single-batch company to obtain such licenses. In addition, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Zhiji Automobile have won conditional L3 autonomous driving road test licenses in Beijing and Shanghai. Up to now, three cities in China, Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing, have opened L3 autonomous driving road tests, and a total of 6 brands have obtained test licenses. According to the data, the penetration rate of smart cars in the Chinese market with L2 assisted driving and above is 314%, which will reach 49 by 20259%。
Shengma micro review:The curtain of the high-level autonomous driving competition has begun, and the urban NOA in 2024 will definitely be more volatile.
Trend 5: Upstream raw materials** continue to decline
Event: Lithium phosphate** plummeted
At the beginning of 2023, battery-grade lithium carbonate was close to 600,000 tons, and by late April it was less than 180,000 tons, and then, although there was some, it could not withstand the pressure of high inventory in the industry, and it turned around again at the end of June, and on December 26, the data released by Shanghai Ganglian showed that the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on that day was reported at 10250,000 tons. Some market analysts believe that with the slowdown in the growth of new energy vehicles, lithium carbonate ** below 100,000 tons will become the norm in the future.
Shengma micro review:In the past two years, lithium carbonate production capacity has expanded too fast, but the demand growth rate has slowed down since this year, and the competitive pressure has increased sharply. In the future, with the further decline of the first industry, lithium iron phosphate enterprises may become the thinnest link in the industrial chain, but under pressure, some manufacturers will shift their attention to foreign markets. It is understood that up to now, Tesla, Daimler, Ford, Stellantis Group, Rivian and many other international mainstream car companies have expressed their willingness to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. Among them, Stellantis, the world's fourth largest automotive group, has just signed a contract with CATL, which will supply Stellantis Group's lithium iron phosphate battery cells and modules in Europe to help Stellantis Group produce electric vehicles in the European market.
Trend 6: Going to sea has become a new wind vane
Event: A number of new energy vehicle companies have achieved remarkable results in going overseas
In 2023, new energy vehicles will go overseas more frequently and the layout will be more in-depth. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November this year, China's new energy vehicle exports were 10910,000 vehiclesFor the full year, it is expected to exceed 1.2 million units (excluding overseas production), with a growth rate of 80%.
On April 18 this year, Changan Automobile released the "Embrace All Rivers" plan to accelerate the international development of Changan Automobile. As of 2023, Changan Automobile has entered more than 60 overseas markets, and from January to November, Changan Automobile's own brand sold 220849 overseas vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 381%。
BYD will continue to win the sales championship in many countries in 2023, and at present, BYD's new energy passenger vehicles have entered 58 overseas countries and regions such as Germany, Japan, France, Brazil, Australia, Thailand, and Singapore, further improving the global territory. In terms of sales data, from January to November this year, BYD exported a total of 206,670 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3634%。
Nezha Automobile is also a pioneer in the overseas expansion of Chinese new energy brands. As of May 11, Nezha Automobile has set up overseas direct stores and more than 30 overseas dealers. At present, Nezha Automobile has nearly 400,000 global users, and its overseas products have achieved the first monthly sales volume in market segments in Thailand and other markets, and its overseas territory covers ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East market. In addition, the Thai plant, which was officially opened in the first half of the year, has also started production.
Shengma micro review:At present, the domestic new energy vehicle market is facing fierce competition, the industry is heating up, and the development and growth in overseas markets means new growth space. With the scale advantage of China's new energy and the demand for market expansion, more and more Chinese made new energy product brands are going abroad, and their recognition overseas continues to increase, and the new energy export market is still promising.
Trend 7: Competition intensifies and business wars escalate
Event: Halftime battle between Great Wall and BYD
On May 25, Great Wall Motor's official *** and Weibo issued a statement saying that as early as April 11, 2023, Great Wall Motors submitted reporting materials to relevant departments, reporting that BYD's Qin Plus DM-i and Song Plus DM-i vehicles use atmospheric fuel tanks, and the problem of suspected vehicle evaporative pollutant emissions not meeting the standard. At noon on the same day, BYD's official account responded that the vehicles sent by the Great Wall for inspection did not meet the requirements of the national standard, and the test report was invalid.
Shengma micro review:After more and more companies began to focus on the plug-in hybrid business, the competition for market share has become fierce. As the first company to eat the dividends of the market segment and has taken the lead in an all-round way, BYD will definitely become the target of public criticism. For a period of time in the future, it will be the norm for enterprises to fight technology and fight for the best, after all, for each company, grabbing more market share is the ultimate goal.
Trend 8: Quality issues are still a tough battle
Incidents: Frequent accidents of various car brands
At the beginning of 2023, an ideal L9 in Jinan, Shandong Province had a spontaneous combustion accident on the side of the road. At the end of 2023, another new energy vehicle under Ideal, the Ideal L7, also caused social concern due to a sudden traffic accident. On the evening of December 25, the Guangdong Qingyuan traffic police reported the ideal L7 accident: the accident caused the death of the car driver and one passenger, and the injury of another passenger. The car involved was suspected of speeding.
In April this year, Ms. Gao in Zhengzhou complained to ** that she bought a new energy vehicle of the Ora Good Cat model at the Henan Borun Ora 4S store, but on July 3, the brakes suddenly failed during normal driving, and the accelerator lost power, resulting in the vehicle being unable to drive normally.
In October, Xpeng Motors was exposed to two ** traffic accidents;On November 3, a smoke incident occurred in Xixi Wetland, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, after the collision of the ZEEKR 009 chassis. The incident did not result in any personnel**;On November 25, a Tesla crash involving 11 cars reported by Chengdu ** sparked heated discussions.
Shengma micro review:The quality problem in the automotive industry is a cliché. In the past year, major auto brands are still experiencing quality accidents. In the face of frequent accidents, supervision has also taken further action. In August this year, the Equipment Industry Development Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Investigation of New Energy Vehicle Safety Hazards in 2023", indicating that in order to further strengthen the safety management of new energy vehicles, improve the safety level of new energy vehicles, and ensure social public safety and the safety of people's lives and property, entrusted by the First Division of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it will organize and carry out the investigation of potential safety hazards of new energy vehicle products. In the future, the product quality and safety of new energy vehicles will still be a tough battle.
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