At the beginning of 2024, the situation in the Middle East continues to be turbulent, with the assassinations of Japan** and South Korea, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating, bringing great uncertainty to the world. Against this backdrop, Iran is once again in the spotlight with a suicide attack that shocked the world. On January 3, 95 people were killed and 170 injured in two ** attacks in the Iranian city of Kerman, for which no group or individual has yet been declared responsible. Iran characterized the two attacks as "terrorist attacks" and said it would launch a "strong and stern response" to the behind-the-scenes. The time, place and background of the attack have aroused people's attention and thinking.
1.When: The timing of the attack is interesting. January 3 marks the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Iranian star Soleimani. On January 3, 2019, Soleimani was killed in a U.S. drone attack on the airport in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. This incident almost triggered a large-scale conflict between the United States and Iran. Soleimani's assassination sparked strong resentment and condemnation of the United States in Iran, and a series of retaliatory actions. However, Iran has so far failed to seek justice for Soleimani's assassination, and the two terrorist attacks, which coincide with the fourth anniversary of the assassination, are undoubtedly a huge provocation for Iran and will trigger strong retaliatory actions.
2.Location: The place where the attack took place is of a special nature. The city of Kerman is one of the largest cities in southeastern Iran, as well as an important ** center and transportation hub with a dense population. The attack took place near Soleimani's grave and coincided with the anniversary of Soleimani's assassination, where large numbers of people gathered to commemorate him. This shows that the attackers were carefully planned and prepared, choosing the right time and place to create maximum panic and **.
3.Background: The context in which the attack took place was unique. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to escalate, and at the same time, tensions in the Red Sea region continue to escalate. The United States, Britain, Israel and other countries believe that the Houthis have a delicate relationship with Iran and should be responsible for a series of attacks by the Houthis. Recently, tensions in the Red Sea have continued, with the United States and Britain and other countries eager to take the plunge, and Iran has also announced that it will send destroyers to the Red Sea to deal with the tensions. At the same time, after the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US military bases in Iraq were frequently attacked by Iraqi militia forces, and the Pentagon even believed that these armed forces were "related to Iran" and launched retaliatory air strikes on the Syrian-Iranian border on many occasions. In this situation, all parties in the Middle East have the intention of pulling Iran into the water and trying to put further pressure on Iran. There are various indications that the United States, Israel, and some "extremist forces" or opposition forces may be behind the attack, and the truth has not yet been revealed, indicating that the Middle East will usher in a new round of changes.
Who is behind the Iranian terrorist attack?The jury is still out, but there are three possibilities worth keeping an eye on.
1.Possibility 1: The United States did it. The United States may have multiple purposes in its desire to provoke Iran, exacerbate the internal chaos in Iran, draw it into the chaos in the Middle East, and exert further pressure. The United States may try to force Iran back to the JCPOA negotiating table or undermine the reconciliation process in the Middle East. As we all know, since the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Middle East has ushered in a wave of reconciliation. The United States, which has been benefiting from the chaos in the Middle East, is dissatisfied with this and intends to obstruct and create chaos.
2.Possibility 2: Israel did it. Israel may try to use the attack to destabilize Iran's internal situation and reduce its own pressure and the outside world's attention to the Palestinian-Israeli conflictOn the other hand, Israel may try to provoke confrontation and contradictions between the United States and Iran in order to reduce the pressure and concern it faces. Israel, which has always enjoyed the support of the United States, has expressed concern about the decision of the United States to relocate the aircraft carrier "Ford" back to the United States. Therefore, Israel has the potential to be behind the terrorist attacks in Iran.
3.Possibility 3: Committed by certain "extremist forces" or opposition forces. These forces may try to provoke contradictions between Iran and the United States, the West, and Israel, and gain benefits from them. These forces can use terrorist attacks to create social chaos and then fight for more rights and resources.
In conclusion, until further investigation results are available, we will not know who is really behind the attack. However, it is certain that this incident will exacerbate the contradictions between Iran and the United States and Israel, and trigger a new round of changes in the Middle East. Going forward, we will continue to focus on the response and response measures of all parties to the incident.