Armenian Prime Minister Pashnyan recently made a two-day visit to Russia and shook hands with Aliyev at an informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg, which happened exactly in front of Putin. When the military conflict erupted again in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Russia initially took a wait-and-see approach, but then stepped in to force a ceasefire between the two sides.
Although Russia's position at the time seemed to be just, the fact that Armenia was the party that was hit throughout the war, so Russia's involvement was essentially indirect support for Armenia. Nevertheless, Pashnyan did not accept Russia's help. Subsequently, Armenia began to gradually distance itself from Russia, and Pashnyan became a typical pro-Western political figure.
He even declared in an interview that security dependence on Russia was a "strategic mistake", which can be seen as a clear signal of Armenia's turn to the West. However, when Armenia and the United States held joint exercises, Azerbaijan launched another attack on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the United States did not come to the rescue, but only lightly called for dialogue.
This alarmed Armenia, and Pashnyan even openly stated that Armenia was ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan if Azerbaijan could guarantee the security of Armenians. Such an unconventional attitude raises questions. The changing situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, has regained the attention of the international community, exposing the true face of the United States and the West.
Russia has benefited greatly from this: on the one hand, it has been able to speed up military operations at a time when the West is distracted;On the other hand, it is possible to intervene in the situation in Central Asia, the Middle East and the Caucasus. In addition, Putin's recent eagerness to visit the Middle East and his meeting with Iran's Raisi in Moscow show that Russia's diplomatic landscape has changed qualitatively, despite the tremendous pressure exerted by the United States and the West.
Previously, Pashnyan had pinned his hopes on U.S. assistance, but Armenia's vacillation among the great powers would only reap its own bitter consequences, as exemplified by the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Pashnyan has refused to attend CSTO summits in the past, but now he not only visited Russia in person, but even shook hands with Aliyev in front of Putin, suggesting that Armenia's position may have changed.
However, it remains to be seen whether Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a peace treaty, as the Kremlin has stated.