At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, a new round of bank deposit interest rates ushered in another reduction!This is another interest rate cut after the savings rate was cut in June and September this year.
Leading this round are the major state-owned banks such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Bank of China, the China Construction Bank, and the Bank of Communications, which have announced the adjusted RMB deposit interest rates on their official websites.
The longer the time, the higher the interest rate, which again reflects that time has a cost.
In terms of splitting, the listed interest rate of one-year and less lump sum deposit fixed deposits was lowered by 01%, the listed interest rate of two-year lump sum deposit and lump sum time deposit was reduced by 0.2%, and the listed interest rate of three-year and five-year lump sum deposit fixed deposits will be reduced by 025%, after the reduction, the interest rate on 3-year and 5-year deposits can reach up to 2%.
Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC**, believes that with reference to past experience, we believe that other joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks will follow suit in the future and reduce deposit interest rates
There is a resurgence of downward movement in fixed deposit rates
Since the beginning of this year, there have been waves of lowering deposit interest rates, and a trend has been formed.
From time to time, large banks have started a round of interest rate cuts, and small and medium-sized banks have taken advantage of the trend to make up for the cuts. Small and medium-sized banks sometimes cut deposit interest rates in a point-by-point manner, and then the big banks started a new round of interest rate reduction cycles, and the cycle repeated. This is also the situation that has emerged since the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rates, in which "big banks take the lead and small banks follow suit".
Prior to the major banks' cuts in deposit rates, a number of banks adjusted interest rates for specific maturities.
According to a report by China Securities News in November, since late October, a number of small and medium-sized banks across the country have successively issued notice on deposit interest rate adjustments, reducing deposit interest rates for one-year, three-year, and five-year periods, ranging from 10 basis points to 40 basis points.
Regarding the reason for the reduction of the deposit interest rate, China ** Daily quoted Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, as sayingIt is pointed out that the main reason is that some banks make full use of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates to alleviate the pressure on net interest margins and expand the space for banks to further benefit the real economyAt the same time, the proportion of domestic fixed deposits is still high, which is also the reason for the reduction of deposit interest rates.
In fact, since last year, a number of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks have begun to lower their interest rates on listed deposits.
This is related to the continuous narrowing of interest rate spreads in the banking sector as a whole. Net interest margins in the banking sector hit a record low in the second quarter of last year. This year, data from the State Administration of Financial Supervision showed that the net interest margin of commercial banks in the first three quarters was 173%, down 001 percentage point, another record low.
Looking back on last year's situation, Donghai**'s research report pointed out that for a period of time last year, the reduction of time deposit interest rates was accompanied by the continuous decline in asset yields. After the reform of deposit interest rate pricing in April of that year, the fixed deposit interest rate was linked to the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, and the reduction of deposit interest rates for a period of time last year was based on the adjustment made by the decline in treasury bond yields, and it was also the result of the transmission of market interest rates to the deposit side.
In addition to affecting depositors' earnings and easing the pressure on bank interest margins, bank deposit rate cuts may also become a factor affecting the trend of market funding rates. Based on the above situation, the market's expectations for LPR interest rate cuts have also increased.
Will the phenomenon of "deposit moving" be staged?
Judging from the listed interest rates of large state-owned banks, the highest interest rate for three years is 195%, compared to the currency**, the interest rate is not much different. For example, the current seven-day annualized interest rate of Tencent Coin Pass is 1About 97%;The seven-day annualized interest rate of Yu Yu Bao is 1About 92%.
Generally speaking, after the interest rate is marketized, in order to attract depositors' willingness to deposit, banks will still give some preferential interest rates, and the interest rate will rise. Therefore, the listed interest rate published by the bank is not equivalent to the actual execution rate at the time of deposit.
Before this wave of interest rates was officially lowered, the employees of a joint-stock bank had already reminded in the circle of friends that the interest rate of some deposit items was higher than that of ordinary deposits, such as the interest rate of 200,000 large-amount certificates of deposit in a joint-stock bank for 2 years38-2.4%, 3-year period from 500,000, interest rate can reach 285%。
In addition to some deposit products, which can enjoy higher interest rates due to their high starting amounts, some banks have also started to raise interest rates for a limited time in order to cope with the good start, but most banks are local banks.
Shangguan News quoted experts as pointing out that it is not excluded that small and medium-sized banks may dynamically adjust the interest rate level according to factors such as the economic situation, deposit costs, and expected returns, and differentiate pricing for different deposit products.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said that at present, China is promoting the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rates, and banks are reasonably adjusting deposit interest rates according to the supply and demand of the regional deposit market under the premise of satisfying the self-discipline mechanism.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the differences in deposit interest rates in various banks and localities, and the strong willingness of residents to save, the term "deposit special forces" has become popular all over the Internet. In fact, it has always been common for residents to "move their deposits".
In a highly competitive environment, banks in the service industry can only fight a "first-class war" in the final analysis, but this first-class war refers to preferential interest rates.
In addition to "deposit moving", it is also possible that deposits may be transferred into money when the interest rate of money is close to the interest rate of fixed deposits. If deposits are transferred to the cargo base, it will also directly enhance the power of bond allocation.
Guosheng**'s research report shows that there is a significant substitution relationship between residents' deposits and wealth management, and between residents' deposits and the cargo base, and the year-on-year growth trend is significantly negatively correlated, showing that when the resident sector is doing asset allocation, wealth management and deposits, currency** and deposits are alternative choices for each other.
For example, in April this year, residents' deposits fell significantly, corresponding to the increase in the scale of wealth management, indicating that deposits may be moving to "wealth management", which has become one of the main driving forces for the strength of the bond market.
From a quantitative point of view, the difference between the yield of wealth management and the deposit interest rate will increase by 10bps, which will bring 25.3 billion yuan of deposits to wealth management every month. The difference between the yield of the cargo base and the deposit spread will increase by 10bps, which will bring about 19.8 billion deposits to the cargo base every month. If the deposit interest rate drops by 10bps, other conditions remain unchanged, the total monthly transfer of deposits to wealth management and cargo base will be about 45 billion yuan.
Conclusion
In August this year, the Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center released the "Semi-annual Report on China's Banking Wealth Management Market (2023 First)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which shows that the preferences of wealth management investors are becoming more and more polarized.
The number of individual investors with a risk appetite of Level 1 (conservative) and level 5 (aggressive) increased by 132 percentage points and 032 percentage points.
In terms of income, in the first half of the year, the average rate of return of wealth management products was 339%, which is higher than the average rate of return of each monthly wealth management product in 2022 (2.).09%)3 percentage points.
Of course, what is revealed here is the situation of the overall wealth management market. In fact, the proportion of net-worth wealth management products covered by this has reached 9594%。Therefore, the performance of major asset classes such as the bond market and ** also determines the direction of yield.
2024 is already close at hand, and if you open your account in a week, I don't know if there will be some unexpected surprises
Disclaimer] The content of the article is for research and study purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment is risky and past performance is not indicative of future performance.