The Paper:On the evening of December 14, Beijing and Shanghai simultaneously adjusted a number of property market policies, including the optimization of the identification standards for ordinary residences, the reduction of the down payment ratio for house purchases, and the adjustment of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates. The implementation of the new deal has entered the second week, and the transaction volume of intermediary stores in the first month of the new deal was 3 to 4 sets, and after the new deal landed, 7 sets have been traded this month**,The trading volume increased by about 50%. According to the industry, judging from the online signing data, the data on the first day and the weekend after the implementation of the new policy are more than 600 sets, and the data on weekdays is maintained at around 500 sets.
* Meteorological Observatory:Since mid-December, the weather situation in China has been extremely complex, with various winter disastrous weather such as cold waves, rain and snow, low temperatures, and freezing. It is expected that in the next 10 days, precipitation will be scarce in most parts of the countryThe temperature gradually rises to close to normal for the same period of the year or is on the high sideAmong them, the northern part of Xinjiang, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, and the central and northern parts of Northeast China are higher by 3-5.
CCTV Finance:Due to the rising tensions in the Red Sea region, merchant ships, including the Greek fleet, will not only be at risk if they continue to sail in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal waterways, but will also face great risks to personnel. And if the merchant ships between Asia and Europe choose to detour the Cape of Good Hope in South AfricaThe voyage will be at least 10 days longer, which will greatly increase the cost of transportation. For goods shipped to Europe, there will be a 10% to 20% increaseIt depends on different items.
Macroeconomics
1. Health Commission:Recently, the number of outpatient and emergency respiratory disease diagnosis and treatment in medical institutions across the country has continued to fluctuate and decline. December 22ndThe total number of outpatient and emergency respiratory diseases in medical institutions above the second level decreased by 8 compared with the same period last week2%, down 30 from the peak02%。
2. China Disease Control and Prevention:Recently, China has issued guidelines for the prevention of respiratory infectious diseases for the public to wear masks, which also focus on the common situations and scenarios closely related to the public's life, work, and study, and distinguish different periods such as high incidence and normalization of the epidemic. On the basis of ensuring the effectiveness of prevention and control, the corresponding classification suggestions minimize the impact on the public's production and life.
3. Changchun City, Jilin Province:The popularity of ice and snow tourism in the province continues to rise, and the transportation production of Changchun Airport shows a significant growth trend. As of December 21,The passenger throughput of Changchun Airport reached 15 million, a record highThis marks a critical stage in the transition of Changchun Airport from a large domestic airport to a busy airport.
4. CCTV News:It was learned from the West Kowloon Border Inspection Station that as of 7 p.m. on December 23, the West Kowloon Border Inspection Station had inspected more than 110,000 people entering and leaving the country in a single dayIt has broken the historical record since the opening of the port in 2018.
5. Mafengwo: In the past week, the popularity of "New Year's Eve destinations" has increased by as much as 266%. Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Harbin, Chongqing, Hong Kong, Xi'an, Sanya and Macao are among the top 10 popular cities for New Year's Eve.
6. Beijing**:The temperature at the observatory in the southern suburbs was below freezing from 0:00 on December 11 to December 24, and the low temperature that lasted below 0 has exceeded 300 hoursThis is the longest continuous low temperature in Beijing during December since records began in 1951.
Real estate dynamics
1. Lou Jiwei, former minister of the Ministry of Finance:At present, the real estate market policies adopted by various departments and localities still need to be adhered to and continuously optimized, focusing on avoiding major risks and improving market demand. When the population no longer distinguishes between urban and rural household registration, they can be converted to each other, and the urban and rural migrants can obtain the same public services and the right to enter the market, and they will be able to buy houses in cities and towns with peace of mindConsumer demand can increase by nearly 30%.
2. The Paper:Shenzhen Railway Real Estate Qianhai Times Zunfu opened online house selection on December 24, and it only took 6 hoursAll 270 sets of 189-249 large flats were sold out, with sales reaching 573.8 billion yuanRealization of "daylight".
3. Hongkou District, Shanghai:As of December 22, 140 neighborhood houses have been expropriated from 370 residents and 456 households. This also means that Hongkou District has overfulfilled the sporadic renovation task in 2023, benefiting more than 1,400 residents. There are also 14 sporadic plots in the district, involving more than 3,000 residents, which are scheduled to be fully completed by the end of 2025.
Stocktaking
On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 013% at 291478 points, down 094%；The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 039% at 922131 points, down 175%；The GEM index closed down 037% at 182584 points, down 123%。
On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed down 169% at 1634041 points, down 269%；The Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 437% at 354805 points, down 6 for the week15%；The state-owned enterprises index closed down 233% at 548899 points, down 371%。
3. CITIC**:The market is nearing its end. Towards the end of the year, institutional heavy stocks performed relatively well. Investor confidence is at the bottom, and the value of A-share overshoot is already very high. The current PB of the CSI 300 is only 117, which is below the bottom of several rounds of market cycles since 2005.
4. Haitong**:Looking at 2024 with reverse thinking, the three potential expectation differences are worth paying attention to. It is expected that the index amplitude is expected to be amplified next year, and the market may get rid of the low-level weak ** pattern and return to the upward trend. The second difference in expectations is that the industry that will break through to the top may come from the financial weighted sector, and pay attention to the phased performance brought by policy catalysis. The expected difference is three, and the growth performance of the white horse is superior during the performance upward period, and the fundamentals may hope to support the market style from the "dumbbell" ** to the growth of the white horse.
5. CICC:At present, there are only 5 trading days left before the end of 2023, and the overall performance of the index has risen first and then decreased from the year-to-date performance, especially near the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite Index is as low as the end of April and October last year. From the perspective of the market outlook, the accumulation of extreme valuations and positive factors should respond to the negative feedback of the capital side, and A-shares** may come at any time, and the medium-term opportunities in the market outweigh the risks, and continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in the internal and external environment.
6. Private placement network:As of the end of November, the net value of hundreds of private placements has been cut in half since its establishment, and the worst-performing products have lost more than 90% since their establishmentThe net unit value of some private placement** products has fallen to 00324 yuan. In this context, whether the product should be set with a "double line" (warning line and stop loss line) has once again sparked heated discussions.
7. China Securities Network:So far, a total of 134 listed companies have issued buyback plans in December. The total amount of planned buybacks is approximately 128.2 billion shares, with a total planned repurchase amount of about 1618.1 billion yuan,The overall scale of planned buybacks is at a high level.
8. Yicai:In terms of the date of product establishment, 8 wealth management companies issued a total of 210 QDII wealth management products this yearSome products have an annualized rate of return of more than 4%. Since most of the QDII wealth management products are anchored by the US 10-year Treasury yield, with the recent Fed repeatedly releasing interest rate cut signals in 2024, whether the high yield of QDII products due next year can be sustained remains to be tested by the market.
9. Huya: Acquired 100% equity of a global mobile application service provider from Tencent for a total cash consideration of US$81 millionSubsequent acquisitions** may be adjusted in accordance with customary practice.
10. Hubei Yihua:Yihua Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, plans to increase its stake in the company within six months from December 25The amount of shares to be increased shall not be less than 1500 million yuan, not more than 300 million yuan. There is no ** range set for this increase.
11. Long-term logistics:Li Guiping, the actual controller of the company, supports the development of the companyIt intends to transfer 100% of the equity of Lingdong Qiheng to the company free of charge. Lingdong Qiheng is a data technology company focusing on the automotive field.
12. Subscription of new shares:This week, a total of 2 new shares were subscribed, including 1 on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are Bolong Technology and Jiezhong Technology.
13. Lifting of the ban on sales:This week, a total of 118 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 800 billion shares, and the market value of the lifting of the ban reached 941$2.6 billion. Among them, CNGR shares with 1696.9 billion yuan ranked first on the list of lifting the ban, and Shaanxi Construction Co., Ltd. and Jiehuate were 885.3 billion yuan, 523.4 billion yuan ranked second and third.
Wealth Spotlight
1. Every warp network:At present, international institutions such as CFA (CFA Institute) and ISSB (International Sustainability Standards Board), as well as domestic institutions such as the Talent Exchange Service Center of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, have launched ESG certificate exams. In terms of fees,Most of the ESG certificate exams launched by international institutions are more than 5,000 yuan, which is generally higher than the ESG certificate exams of domestic institutions.
2. CCTV News:The Central American country of Panama has suffered a severe drought amid climate change this year. In addition to agricultural production, shipping is another industry in Panama that has been affected by drought. In the face of the restrictions issued by the Panama Canal Authority,Many shipping companies face issues with time and capital costs**.
3. Financial breakfast:Hot spots out non-stop, track what you want to hear. The Red Sea problem continues to ferment, and container transportation, oil and gas giants have bypassed the Red SeaWhat changes will demand make?How elastic is the freight rate of the oil transportation industry?What is the impact on the various sub-sectors of shipping?Wealthy friends, quickly row to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking Shipping Avenue is "difficult".
Industry Watch
1. Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology:By 2025, the city will take the lead in building a high-quality development system for the information and innovation industry with leading technology, enterprise agglomeration, outstanding solutions and complete services in the country, create 100 information and innovation application scenarios, gather 400 information and innovation enterprises, and introduce and train more than 10,000 industrial talentsThe scale of the information and innovation industry exceeded 100 billion yuan.
2、counterpoint research：In terms of shipmentsMediaTek saw an increase in shipments in Q3, dominating the smartphone SoC market with a 33% share. In addition, the launch of low- and mid-range** smartphones has also increased shipments of the MediaTek Dimensity 7000 series.
3、ggii：China's blade battery shipments exceeded 140GWh, mainly concentrated in Fodi batteries, honeycomb energy and other enterprises. From the perspective of production capacity and the number of enterprises,In the next two years, China's newly planned blade battery production capacity will exceed 200GWhMore than 10 battery companies (including those built by OEMs) will lay out blade batteries.
4. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Association:From January to November, a total of 940,000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, up 75% y/y. Domestic brands such as SAIC Motor performed strongly in Europe. In addition to the beautiful performance of traditional export car companies, the export of new forces has also gradually started recently, and data in overseas markets have begun to appear. Exports of new energy vehicles are expected to remain high in the coming months.
5. CCTV News: The first domestically produced large-scale cruise ship "Aida Modu" departed from Shanghai Wusongkou International Cruise Port and went to sea for the first trial operation. The first trial operation ended on December 25, and the second trial operation began immediately. Through two trial operations, it will ensure that the first commercial flight on January 1, 2024 will provide better services to passengers.
6. Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association:From January to November, South Korea's new energy vehicle exports were 66230,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 325%。Exports are expected to exceed 700,000 units for the first time this yearA record high. Exports of new energy vehicles in 2020 were 2710,000 units, 40 in 202150,000 units, compared to 55 in 202250,000 units, increasing every year.
Company news
1. Luzhou Laojiao: Internationalization is the way that Chinese liquor must take. The internationalization of baijiu is not achieved overnight, but a process of long-term immersion. The going out of Chinese liquor must be accompanied by the going out of Chinese catering. In 2024, sports marketing will continue to be increased, and with the upgrading of consumption, consumption tends to be rational, and the market is more inclined to drink good wine, drink less alcohol, and drink healthily.
2. Xiaomi:Recently, there have been a large number of rumors and false reports about a chip company related to Xiaomi circulating on the Internet. For this irresponsible, completely inaccurate information,The evidence collection has been completed and reported to the relevant departments, and a solemn clarification has been made.
3. Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor:In recent years, the emergence of new technologies such as new technologies, new materials, and AI models has given the smartphone industry more impetus for development. Honor's R&D investment intensity ranks among the top 6 in China, investing almost more than 10% of the company's revenue in products and R&D.
4. Biyide Supermarket:The core reason for this shutdown is the disruption of cash flow. Since entering China in 2016, Biyide has been in a state of overall loss. However, about 80 of the 161 stores before the suspension of business were already profitable at the store level.
Global vision
1. CCTV News:A commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that if the United States and its allies continue to commit crimes in the Gaza Strip, it could prompt the emergence of new resistance forces. "The Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar and other waterways" may be closed.
2. Tokyo Electric Power Company of Japan:The fourth round of discharge of nuclear-contaminated water will be carried out in February next yearThe step of confirming the tritium concentration of radioactive material prior to discharge will be omitted. The fourth round of discharge will be different from the previous three rounds in that the actual tritium concentration of the contaminated water flowing through the pipeline will be confirmed during the discharge period.
3. CCTV News:After many European countries stopped importing most of their oil and gas from RussiaTurkey became the largest importer of Russian energy in the Western Hemisphere. As a member of NATO, Turkey did not choose to oppose Russia because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but deepened bilateral economic and trade cooperation.
Financial data
On Friday, the onshore yuan was quoted at 7 at 16:30** against the dollar1393, up 00798%, down 05719%；The central price of the yuan was reported at 70953, up 00831%，Weekly up 00056%。
Last week, 7 new listed companies were added, with a turnover of 169.3 billion, an increase of 22 from the previous month45%。Up to now, the total number of ** listed companies has reached 6,262. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative turnover of the first listed company has reached 594$2.4 billion.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange:Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission allowance listing agreements in the national carbon market was 160540,000 tons, with a total turnover of 12,406140,000 yuan, ** price 8064 yuan tons,Weekly up 1302%。
4. U.S. stocks:On Friday, the Dow fell 005% at 3738597 points,Weekly up 022%；The S&P 500 rose 017% at 475463 points,Weekly up 075%；The Nasdaq rose 019% at 1499297 points,Weekly up 121%。
5. Europe:On Friday, Germany's DAX 30 index rose 011% at 1670618 points, down 027%；France's CAC 40 index fell 003% to 756882 points, down 037%；Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 004% at 769751 points,Weekly up 16%。
On Friday, the COMEX February settlement price closed up 087% at 2069$1 ounce,Weekly up 164%。
On Friday, the WTI ** settlement price closed down 0$33, down 045% to 73$56 barrel,Weekly up 298%。Brent*** settlement price closed down 079% to 79$07 barrel,Weekly up 329%。
Shipping Avenue is "difficult to travel".
Shen Wan Hongyuan:The impact of the Red Sea shipping channel cannot be underestimated, and the impact on the ** chain continues to exceed expectations, the global shipping sector resonates, and the European line freight rate **45 last week5%, European freight rate ***514%, oil tanker Afra Suez**12%-37%, overseas container shipping target **10%-31%, oil tanker **5%-13%. The market focuses on the sustainability of the impact of the Red Sea time, but ignores the two major changes of OPEC production cut and the decline in the probability of freight rate decline in the off-season. The ship sector is expected to resonate, and after the balance sheet school uniform, the tail class is expected to increase orders to reduce the cost gap with the head company.
Guotai Junan: The capacity utilization rate of the shipping industry will determine the elasticity difference of the impact of freight rates. The supply and demand of the three major shipping markets of container transportation, oil transportation and dry bulk are independent, and the boom stage is different. 1) The freight rate of the European line has fallen back to the pre-epidemic level in 2023, and the future prosperity will depend on the recovery of exports and the digestion of the pressure of new ship delivery in the next two years. If the impact of the Red Sea situation continues, a large number of European routes will bypass the Cape of Good Hope, which will be conducive to the performance of off-season freight rates and the negotiation of negotiated freight rates in 2024. 2) The utilization rate of oil transportation capacity has been significantly improved, and the supply and demand will continue to improve in the next few years, and the elasticity of freight rates is sufficient. In 2023, oil products and refined products accounted for 8% and 12% of global ocean freight through the Suez Canal, respectively. If the impact of the Red Sea situation continues, it may affect the efficiency and cause the freight rate of small tankers to rise, and may lead to the gradual transmission of part** around the Cape of Good Hope to the VLCC freight rate.
Innovent**:Assuming that Europe does not pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, there are many variations in the path of global shippingDemand may increase by 6%, and global demand for refined oil shipping is expected to grow by as much as 12%. Hypothesis 1, Europe maintains the ** import volume from the Middle East, ** oil tankers bypass the Cape of Good Hope into Europe, and the global **shipping** turnover is expected to increase by 627%；Hypothesis 2, Europe abandons imports from the Middle East** and imports from North America. The route is switched to "North America, Europe", "Middle East, Asia-Pacific", and the global **shipping** turnover is expected to decline by 355%；Hypothesis 3, Europe abandons imports from the Middle East** and imports from West Africa. The route is switched to "West Africa, Europe", "Middle East, Asia-Pacific", and the global **shipping** turnover is expected to decline by 374%。
Zheshang**: Container transportation is the most obviously affected. Container shipping giants have avoided the Red Sea, and the European line market will usher in a short-term further upward momentum, and shipowners will detour to increase the number of sailing days, which is expected to boost container shipping rates. In addition, air freight will also be expected to benefit from the ship bypass in the short term, due to the European line container ship bypass, some of the container cargo may turn to air freight, superimposed Christmas stocking season, is expected to further drive air freight rates**. Considering the importance and particularity of oil, and the fact that the oil transportation sector has been significantly affected by geopolitics in the past two years, the increase in the overall risk premium of the sector may provide a significant catalyst on the emotional side, and continue to be optimistic about the upward trend of the oil transportation business cycle.