The PMI for November has been released, in which the manufacturing PMI data is adjusted to 494. Down 0 from the previous month1 percentage point. After the manufacturing managers' index stood at a high of 50 points in September, it was the second consecutive month**. The manufacturing sector is still hovering in recession territory.
Looking back at the manufacturing managers' index this year, China's manufacturing industry has shown a strong recovery trend at the beginning of the new year. However, this recovery trend after the first quarter is not an exaggeration to describe it as a brittle break. Since April this year, the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse, and the PMI has also fallen below the boom and bust line, and has been running below the boom and bust line for four consecutive months. Since then, except for September, it barely rose above 50, and briefly stood above the line of prosperity and decline. In October, November again fell below the boom and bust line. In fact, the rise in September is also easier to understand, the golden nine silver ten, this month to prepare for the National Day consumption boom, as the traditional consumption season is coming, it is not difficult to understand the recovery of the manufacturing industry in September. However, this trend was not maintained in the future, and after entering October, the recovery trend began to reverse, and continued to decline under the extreme efforts of 11.11 in November. This year, the major e-commerce platforms have not announced their own results, which is enough to see that the weak consumption in November is far beyond imagination!
We have done so much financial data analysis in the past, and most of our students know what the PMI data means. Here, in order to better understand the newcomers, let's systematically explain what macroeconomic conditions are reflected in the PMI. The Purchasing Managers' Index, which is the PMI data we often see. It is one of the most important reference data of the macroeconomy, and this data has a strong forward-looking view of a country's economic environment. By referring to the data changes in the PMI, it is possible to advance the short-term fluctuations of a country's economy**. Therefore, this data is generally referred to as a sign of market change.
There is another difference between the PMI and other data. For example, GDP, CPI, etc., reflect absolute data, which is a measured data. The PMI does not reflect a fixed value, but the rise and fall of economic fundamentals. In a general sense, 50% is used as the dividing line between strength and weakness, and economists call it the boom and bust line.
My personal understanding is that 50% refers to the number of corporate purchasers, that is, half. When more than half of the industry believes that the economy is booming, they will procure raw materials and expand production. This indicates that most companies are optimistic about the economic outlook. More than 50 means that the production of enterprises is speeding up, the scale is expanding, and naturally, the demand side will also show growth, which means that the economy is about to enter the expansion range. When most companies expect consumption to enter contraction territory, they will reduce production, indicating that the economy has entered contraction territory. The PMI data is below 50. The statement of the boom and bust line probably comes from the future expectations of the enterprise. It is worth noting that when the data continues to move towards 40, it means that the economy has begun to enter the depression zone.
In addition, when PMI is counted, different industries such as manufacturing, construction, and service industries will be counted separately. The PMI data of these different industries reflect the prosperity of various industries, and the prosperity of these fields is correlated. For example, if the manufacturing industry expands for a long time and wealth creation is active, then the service industry and real estate will continue to boom. When people have money, they will naturally buy houses and land, and consumption will rise. From this simple analogy, it can also be seen that in the purchasing managers' index, the manufacturing PMI is the basis and the most important link. After all, whether it is the consumption of the service industry or the real estate industry, most of the funds ** come from the redistribution of manufacturing profits.
As a large foreign trade-driven economy, China's manufacturing PMI data has a very high correlation with China's economy. A company, individual or brokerage institution will generally sort out the future economic waves through the continuous changes of the purchasing managers' index and make their own economic decisions.
Judging from China's PMI data in November, we can get a basic judgment that under the past multiple rounds of stimulus, the manufacturing industry has not been effectively improved, and even has deteriorated slightly. Next, let's take a look at the data in the PMI segment and analyze for you, what are the fundamentals of our economy?
First of all, the demand data aspect. This includes orders in hand, i.e. orders that are in the process of production and delivery, new export orders and new orders. These aspects are currently diverging. Among them, the order data in hand is slightly **02, up to 444, because less than 50 means that it is still in the contraction range. New orders and new export orders continued to fall. Among them, new orders fell by 01 percentage point to 494.New export orders fell by 05 percentage points to 463.Both figures fell for two consecutive months. These three data reflect that both domestic and external demand are declining, and the increase in demand is slowing down. Insufficient demand is the fundamental reason for the slump in the manufacturing industry. This is also what demand-side data means.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, more than 6 percent of the manufacturing enterprises reflect the lack of market demand. In other words, the current lack of demand is the key to the economic recovery. So there is a question, please think, since the beginning of this year, except for a brief economic recovery in the first quarter, the economy has been sluggish since then, and there has been a recovery, but then quickly returned to the downturn range, what is the reason behind this?
I think the economic recovery in the first quarter, and the economic downturn after that. It is all related to the scarring effect caused by the epidemic. In general, after experiencing the impact of major events, people's behavior patterns will change greatly from the past. Most people become depressed, unconfident, and even suicidal with misanthropy, and the change in people's behavior caused by major events is known as the scarring effect.
This was reflected in the Japanese economic bubble in the nineties of the last century, and in terms of specific performance, the suicide rate has risen, the aversion to debt, and even if the banks implement negative interest rates, the market's social finance data will not be able to rise. In fact, the scarring effect around us is also very obvious, such as after the major event of the epidemic, people's new year began to waver. Even though the hardest of times is over, most people don't show an optimistic attitude. Many people will also choose a negative way or even a suicidal way to relieve themselves because of the excessive pressure in their lives. The suicides that have occurred everywhere in the past few months are the result of this effect. Although the wound has recovered, the scar is still there, and people are more silent, and they still have palpitations, so in terms of behavior, they will also make conservative defensive actions.
Because most people are very conservative, the overall market sentiment index began to decline. As a result, various money-losing effects began to appear. For example, if you invest in a small business and have no customers, or if you want to buy a small restaurant that used to be very hot, you suddenly have no business. The accumulation of these micro-level losses has gradually been transmitted to the housing market and **, the two largest reservoirs of residents' wealth.
Real estate has already begun to be deep, and everyone has been able to accept this from the heart. Real estate is not good, everyone thinks that there will be a bull market quickly, and many people will invest the remaining funds in **, ready to meet the next wave of wealth dividends. Unexpectedly, the performance was not happy, and most people had to cut their meat after experiencing endless ups and downs. Now even Hu Xijin, who entered the field with the ** task, is starting to lose his breath, which shows what everyone has encountered in the **. The real estate market and ** both lose money, which means that the wealth of the whole people begins to evaporate. This means that wealth is decreasing, incomes are declining, and the share of debt in total wealth is rising rapidly. In this way, the next thing you want to do most is to repair your balance sheet. At this time, no matter how much they can fool, the vast majority of people will choose not to invest and reduce consumption as much as possible.
The emergence of this situation has led to the emergence of unemployment. I don't remember exactly when the Bureau of Statistics stopped publishing data on youth careers, and if it weren't for the ugly data, I don't think it would be necessary not to publish this most uncomfortable approach. The increase in the number of unemployed people has led to the beginning of involution everywhere in all sectors of the economy. Anyway, there are people, and it is said that the undergraduate rate of the takeaway army has reached 3%. There was a joke in the evening that his father worked hard to deliver food for his son to go to college, but he didn't expect his son to become a colleague with his father after graduating from college. Although some things look very funny, behind these phenomena are unspeakable economic difficulties.
In addition to the chills at the micro level, most of us are worried about our own situation if something goes wrong in two macro areas. These two areas are local government bonds and the unknown risks of real estate. Although most people don't understand, they know that there is a high probability that local debts will still be solved by printing money, which will indirectly lead to the shrinkage of their wealth. And the property that has poured a lot of wealth and has to use a large percentage of the income to repay the monthly payment every month is likely to plummet after the mortgage is repaid. Essentially, these concerns have prompted people to tend to be conservative and save when making personal economic decisions. Instead of investing, consuming. If the regulators fail to come up with a reassuring solution to deal with the possible harm caused by real estate and local government bonds, the conservative behavior of most people will continue for many years.
We have seen that many economic policies and bailout programs in the past have basically not played any effective role. These rescue plans have a characteristic, that is, they will be rescued if there is a problem, and they cannot systematically put forward a set of fundamental solutions. In this way, it eventually leads to headaches and foot pains, so that later headaches and foot pains begin to appear in succession until they can no longer be treated.
In fact, economic risk itself is not terrible. What is really scary is the fear of expectation before this risk becomes a reality. Now that there is no effective solution from the regulatory level, it is natural that the small people of Shengdou will not adopt the behavior of expansion to plan the economic behavior of individuals and families.
Speaking of which, in fact, there are some things that we can go deeper. Whether it is economic governance or other aspects of governance, the best way is to be open and transparent, and deal with risks in a generous manner. Overreacting to negative news can lead to worse outcomes. The situation now is that once negative news comes out, it will either be closed to the public or it will be forbidden. In this way, the negative news spreads more widely in people's speculation, and the harm is greater.
In addition, economic data is not publicly available, which will have a direct negative impact on the economy. Let's say you're an investment company, and you need to invest in a project. The first thing to pay attention to is the data related to this project, because through the analysis of the data itself, the future profit and loss and growth can basically be obtained. Once this data is not available, the investment company will choose to abandon the project. This is the attitude of most capital when making decisions. This also explains why there are so many private enterprises this year, and foreign investment has decreased. In fact, it is not that they are deliberately bearish, but that they objectively do not have key data support, which leads to the lack of a key link in their decision-making.
Many people may not understand this well. Let's use a simple analogy to make it clear. For example, if you have a wife who has a child, you don't have time to take care of one of your own stores and need to transfer it. At this time, customers who are interested in buying will ask you a lot of questions, such as daily turnover, business hours, local business environment, etc. At this time, if you don't know three questions, who will invest?
The weakening of investment, especially the weakening of private capital investment in the real economy, has dealt a huge blow to employment. That's easy to understand, right?After all, without investment, there is no demand for jobs, and without jobs, people's incomes will fall. As much as income falls, demand will weaken.
With all that said, let's move on to the supply-side breakdown of PMI in November. This includes the distribution time, production, purchase volume and imports, employees, etc., among them, the distribution time of employees and merchants is rising, and several other data are declining. Among them, production, purchases, and imports all showed 02 pips of pullback. The number of employees rose by 0One point, this is a good thing, at least the unemployment situation has been partially alleviated. However, this does not mean that there will be more job opportunities in the future.
The reason is that the PMI data indicators on the supply side all show that production is slowing down. In this case, even if the job opportunities are not reduced, there is no overtime. In our employment environment, which relies on overtime to increase income, it is not a good thing. Everyone's income is declining. However, on the whole, the current mismatch between the first and the demand itself is not serious, and the decline on the supply side is not large, and in addition to the employment and import PMI data, the others are above 50, indicating that production is still expanding.
In addition, it should be noted that the larger the data of the delivery time, the better. More than 50 means that the time for the merchant to deliver the goods to the customer is faster than the previous month. If a society's transportation capacity does not grow rapidly, faster delivery times mean that the orders in the hands of ** merchants are decreasing. If you have a lot of customers waiting to buy goods, as a factory owner, will there be a delay in delivery because the production cannot be completed?If you produce it for fear that the customer will not want it, you will definitely choose to send it to the customer as soon as possible. **The merchant delivery time is above 50 and the data shows an accelerated trend, indicating that the supply side of the order is insufficient.
In terms of the type of enterprises, the PMI prosperity index of large enterprises continued to rise, to 505. It has been in the expansion range for half a year. Medium-sized companies rose by 01 pip to 488. The small business index fell by 01 point, to 478。Judging from the data, small and medium-sized enterprises are still below the line of prosperity and withering, and the prosperity level is weak.
In terms of future expectations, the PMI expectation index in November, the medium and large indexes continued to rise strongly. And small businesses fell by 1 percentage point directly. This shows that in our economy, the expectations of large and medium-sized enterprises are positive, while small traders are extremely not optimistic about the future. This is reflected in the employment side, which is reflected in the fact that the unemployment situation is not expected to be good in the future. The reason is that most of our jobs are provided by small enterprises, and if small enterprises cannot be allowed to prosper and become active, the employment situation is not optimistic.
The above data are mainly PMI data in the manufacturing sector. Overall, the downward pressure on the economy due to the lack of demand remains, and the unemployment situation will not improve anytime soon, as small businesses are pessimistic about future expectations. However, manufacturing does not represent all industries, and non-manufacturing is the absolute majority of a country's economy. So we can't just look at the manufacturing PMI data and simply judge all the situations. In terms of data, the situation in the non-manufacturing sector is much better.
The overall non-manufacturing PMI figure was 502, although it was down 04 points, but the data is greater than 50, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector is in the expansion range. Among them, the service sector saw a serious decline, with the business activity index at 49 in November3. A contraction of 08。Business activities can be simply thought of as consumption. Obviously, last month's active consumption was mainly due to the pull effect of the National Day on consumption. Now the demand for tourism and consumption has begun to fall, and the phenomenon of underconsumption in the entire service industry has begun to appear.
According to the data, the full load rate of domestic flights was 83% last month and 71% this month6%。Movie box office receipts are down 57 percent from the previous month8%, and the number of moviegoers dropped by 565%。
The construction industry is still the industry with the most eye-catching PMI data in China. The prosperity index is 55, a rapid increase of 1 from the previous month5 points. This shows that the pace of expansion of the construction industry is accelerating. I think this is mainly due to the role of state investment in the field of infrastructure. In October, there were not only 1 trillion special national bonds, but also 12 trillion yuan of local government bond expenditure, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, and the arrival of funds is good. Therefore, it is manifested in the construction industry to show a trend of rapid expansion.
However, the expansion of the construction industry is the expansion of infrastructure, not the expansion of real estate in the narrow sense. This year's Golden September and Silver October, residents' enthusiasm for buying houses is not high, and it has fallen for the second consecutive year. In terms of data, in November this year, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country fell by 8 compared with October8 percentage points, down 15 percent from last year1%。The area of land transactions has dropped by more than one-third compared with the previous month, and compared with last year, the area of land transactions has been directly cut in half. These data show that the property market as a whole is still hovering at a low level.
Overall, the November PMI data is still bad, and overall economic activity is in contraction territory, with no signs of improvement at present. This shows that the economic upward signal has not yet appeared, and it also means that the economic data may not be very good for some time to come. I think the reason for the continued decline in PMI data in the economy is mainly due to the downturn in real estate. Our real estate industry has too deep an impact on the economy, and the depth of the first real estate directly affects all aspects of economic development!