2023 is a sad year for A-share investors, and the reason for the sadness is not how big the ** is, but that it has fallen for another year after the previous year's crit.
From the perspective of the Wind All A Index, it fell for a total of 8 months throughout the year, and the CSI 300 and ChiNext were even worse, rising only for 3 months and 9 months for the whole year**.
The annual high point for most sectors and ** is around the end of January, after which there are almost no major **.
* Worse than we expected, and beyond most people's expectations, those so-called "top ten" are basically wrong.
On the whole: from hope, from disappointment.
This year's summary starts with the comparison.
First, the overall overview of the market
The chart above shows the returns of the major indices this year, as of December 30, 2023.
Wind Partial Stocks** Index -1352%
CSI Partial Stocks** Index -1531%
CSI 300 -1138%
GEM -1941%
Wind All A -519
The loss of CSI partial stocks is greater than that of Wind partial stocks, mainly because their composition methods are different, and CSI partial stocks are weighted according to the size of funds, and the larger the scale, the higher the weight, which is closer to the overall income of ** holders.
It can also be seen from the difference in returns between the two indicesThose big stars** have more holders and bigger average lossesThis is one of the reasons why everyone's investment experience is poor this year.
2. Portfolio returns
The earnings of our 4 portfolios this year:
Radical - 968%, positive type - 699%, equity-debt balance -275%, fixed income +146%, each portfolio operates according to a predetermined risk coefficient, for example, the balance of stocks and bonds focuses on an offensive and defensive balance, and only loses 2 this year75%, fixed income + or positive income.
Even the most aggressive 90 combinations have a clear advantage over the market average.
The following is a partial stock with similar returns to the Radical 90 this year**, which is shown at an excellent level according to the ranking.
3. Reasons for profit and loss
Of course, investment should not only look at the returns, but also look at the risk coefficient behind the returns, as shown in the figure below
Compared with the partial stock ** index, the aggressive 90 portfolio is better in terms of returns, drawdowns, and volatility, and the overall is okay.
The active portfolio equity center is 70%, and the loss of the ** index has been reduced by about half since the beginning of this year, and the maximum drawdown has been reduced by nearly 4%.
The equity center of the balanced portfolio is 50%, and the income this year is -275%, the loss margin is relatively low.
If holders match according to the corresponding investment style, the experience this year will be significantly better than the market as a whole.
If you feel anxious this year, it is very likely that the products you bought do not match your style.
Fourth, deficiencies
Our portfolio is not flawless, some details are not done well, especially in the first half of the year, the market expectations are too high, the risk control is average, and there is no obvious advantage compared to the market average.
Later, it was found that the economic recovery was not so good, so in May and September, the lower **value, dividends and micro-caps** affected by the economy were increased respectively, and the portfolio income in the second half of the year also improved significantly.
At the end of November, I also talked to a friend about the mistakes of this year, and the conversation was as follows:
The biggest mistake this year is: having too high expectations for the old ** and not dealing with it in a timely manner, including many old ** in the rotation combination, and the defense in the first half of the year is also lacking.
Fortunately, we strictly adhered to the investment discipline this year and did not chase high.
Like the very popular Xinchuang, AI and China Special Valuation tracks in the first half of the year, the market at that time was saying that it was the main line throughout the year, and many ** managers also significantly increased their positions in the AI theme, resulting in their drawdown this year generally around 30%.
We have participated in two information innovation themes** in our portfolio, one is CEIBS on the left in early January**, which is currently losing a small amount.
The other is the investment advantage at the end of September, which is currently making a small profit, and the two ** themselves have a large drawdown.
Therefore, the same one, the buying and selling points in different periods, the income is very different, and we must strictly abide by the investment discipline in the future.
5. The 12th issue of 3 million real offers
In January this year, I made a long-term real plan: I hope to earn 1000w with 300w, and the investment evidence will be disclosed every month regardless of profit or loss, and the plan will continue to be updated for 10 years+.
P&L Overview:
Total P&L as of December 31 was -3570,000, yield: -119%, compared to a loss of 4 in the previous month90 thousand.
The details are as follows:
Profit and loss contribution in the past month:
The largest losses are mainly due to growth, such as: Harvest Fenghe, Xingquan Multi-dimensional, Fuguo New Power, etc.
The better contributions are mainly small-cap**, such as: Xincheng Multi-strategy, Dacheng High-tech, Nanhua Fenghui, etc., some of which have positive returns.
The main reason why the real loss is greater than the portfolio loss this year is that the real funds were originally purchased on other platforms, and in order to facilitate the display, they were transferred to Tiantian** in mid-January and continued to be disclosed.
Since half of the year's increase had already passed when I switched in mid-January, the real return was lower than the portfolio return.
Fortunately, only half of the position was opened at that time, and the subsequent investment was fixed for half a year, otherwise the loss would be even greater.
Transferred to the daily ** to do real trading, mainly to record the personal investment process, but also hope to give some reference to trusted friends.
Like the sharp drop in the past few months, there are many people who are more desperate, but seeing that my real market has lost more, I still remain optimistic, and have repeatedly encouraged the bottom not to give up, etc., which has also boosted their confidence and reduced panic.
Summary:
In 2023, I will lose hundreds of thousands of yuan, and in the case of a poor market environment and many problems, I will submit an answer sheet with acceptable results.
This year, I focused on real trading, rarely wrote other articles, and often talked about the market situation and my thoughts in the weekly and monthly reports.
Investing and managing money is my hobby, and in addition to investing, I care more about a high-quality lifestyle.
For the future, I hope to take care of my money first, and then I have some like-minded friends who are already satisfied, and I don't want to be an Internet celebrity, if there are too many followers, it will be very tiring, and that is not what I want.
2023 has passed, and although it is difficult, there are also many opportunities brewing for the year after tomorrow.
2024 will be the beginning of a new round of **, although there are no high expectations in terms of returns, but the probability is much better than 2023.
The specific investment plan will be discussed in detail in next week's 2024 outlook, so please pay attention!
Finally, thank you for your continued trust and support
I wish you all a fruitful and good luck in 202!!4
Important reminder: the market is risky, whether it is ** or investment advisory portfolio, partial stock type is a medium and high-risk investment, investment consultants cannot guarantee profits, if you do not have an in-depth understanding, do not invest blindly!
It is highly recommended: pay attention for a period of time, and then decide after in-depth understanding, and be sure to choose the right product according to your style.
This article only shares personal investment plans, and does not promise returns to anyone
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