The situation in the South China Sea is tense again, and the Philippines has provoked China on the South China Sea issue for two consecutive days, and plans to continue to "fight back" and try to expel the Chinese ambassador. However, the Philippine side needs to think deeply about who exactly is a "monkey" and needs to be carefully weighed. Recently, China's special action at Ren'ai Jiao can be described as a clear warning to the Philippine side. Marcos Marcos of the Philippines tried to send building materials to Ren'ai Jiao again, but was strongly warned and expelled by the Chinese coast guard. The Philippine side was unwilling to do so and tried to find a breakthrough from the Chinese ambassador. After summoning Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian, the Philippines described the normal law enforcement behavior of the Chinese coast guard as "continuous harassment" and threatened to expel the ambassador from the country. Ambassador Huang Xilian strongly expressed his views on the infringement of Philippine vessels.
At the same time, China's developments at Second Thomas Shoal have alarmed the Philippine side. According to Philippine reports, the Chinese ship did not return to the Mischief Reef base immediately after the conflict at Second Thomas Reef as usual, but stayed on the shoal for a whole day, which was unexpected by the Philippine side. Powell, a maritime security expert in the Philippines, said China's action was an "unprecedented" incident. Powell also mentioned the recent "astonishing discovery" by the Philippine side: 11 Chinese vessels appeared in the Ren'ai Jiao area in satellite imagery, which was seen by the Philippine side as a "deliberate show of force" on a "huge scale".
Although the Philippines is hard-spoken, it is frightened by the assertiveness of Chinese ships. In the rhetoric of this Philippine expert, we feel the "uneasiness" of the Philippine side. However, the hard-spoken Philippines is not willing to give up, but has tried to force China to take a stand by rallying the support of "international allies", including the United States and Japan, and has used the threat of expulsion of the Chinese ambassador. Recently, the United States has even proposed the so-called "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" in an attempt to counterbalance China. However, China will not heed the unfounded accusations of the United States, because it has its own standards of conduct in the South China Sea and does not need to be dictated.
The Philippine side's claim that it wants to expel the Chinese ambassador is completely self-defeating. First of all, if the Philippine side insists on doing so, China will immediately take countermeasures and directly expel the Philippine ambassador. This will lead to the loss of avenues for direct dialogue between the two sides, and there will be serious problems in diplomatic relations. In the long run, it will trigger a halt in economic cooperation. As a major agricultural country, the Philippines relies heavily on China as a major buyer for its agricultural exports, and the previous series of provocations have already dissatisfied China. If the Philippine side persists in its mistakes, it will inevitably damage China-Philippines relations and have a serious impact on the Philippine economy.
Second, if the Philippines continues to challenge China's bottom line, China will also take countermeasures at Ren'ai Jiao. On the South China Sea issue, China has always insisted on safeguarding its territorial sovereignty and has strengthened its military presence in the South China Sea over the past decade or so. China's move is a clear expression of its determination to defend its interests in the South China Sea. If the Philippines chooses to go head-to-head with China, it will inevitably trigger a strong reaction from China. Countermeasures may include military means, such as patrols, reconnaissance of warplanes, or economic measures, such as restrictions or investments.
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