The dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea continues, and the latest incident at Second Thomas Shoal has once again attracted international attention. The Philippines** tried to provide building materials to reinforce the wrecked ship that was illegally "beached", but failed to do so, and then claimed that it had proposed diplomacy to the Chinese side **, and stressed that it would not rule out the possibility of expelling the Chinese ambassador, which put China-Philippines relations on the cusp again.
It is not difficult to find the driving force behind the tough stance of the Marcos authorities in the Philippines. After a new round of conflict at Second Thomas Shoal on December 10, the United States became the first country to jump out. Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said on the 11th that the U.S. defense ** is consulting closely with the Philippine side and reiterates the firm commitment to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This statement indicates that the United States will continue to provide security assistance to the Philippines and may even intervene in the situation in the South China Sea.
Not only that, in addition to the United States, 31 countries have issued statements on the situation in the South China Sea. A spokesperson for the EU's External Action Service expressed concern about China's "provocative and dangerous behavior against Philippine vessels" in the South China Sea, and Canada, the United Kingdom and other countries have issued similar statements accusing China of its actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea. It appears to have been a well-coordinated international siege that formed a grand alliance of 32 nations.
The formation of this huge alliance may be the emboldening for the Marcos administration in the Philippines to boldly provoke China. Although the Philippines has not yet sent a large number of building materials to Ren'ai Jiao, it can be seen from the ** that they seem to be "expanding" the illegal "beached" broken ship and adding several "small houses", suggesting that the Philippines will continue to confront China on the Ren'ai Jiao issue, and the situation in the South China Sea may not have subsided.
At this critical juncture, China not only warned at the diplomatic level to stop provocations, but also clearly expressed its warning of the situation through live-fire exercises and Xi. China's maritime authorities announced that some waters in the Beibu Gulf will conduct a four-day live-fire training and prohibit sailing. This action clearly sends a clear message to the parties concerned about China's determination in the South China Sea.
The Philippines needs to be soberly aware of the fact that there is a gap in strength with China. If China continues to rely on external forces to provoke China, it may find itself in an unmanageable situation and even lead to a real military conflict. The Marcos administration should assess the situation and consider whether there are countries in the alliance that can really afford the cost of a military conflict with China. Think calmly, immediately stop reckless provocations, and return to the right track of dialogue.
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