The issue of food has always touched people's hearts. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual grain harvest was bumper, and the output reached a new high, reaching 1,390.8 billion catties. Under the increasingly severe global food security situation, it has given everyone a "reassurance". But at the same time, there are also some questions in the society and the Internet, for example, this year, natural disasters are frequent, and the area of cultivated land has decreased in recent years, why can we still achieve a bumper harvest or even increase production? Since there have been bumper grain harvests year after year, why are imports still growing?
Let's answer the first question first: why can we still achieve a bumper harvest when there are many natural disasters this year? Indeed, from the perspective of the whole year, this year has encountered such disasters as the rare "bad rain" in the Huanghuai region, the severe floods in North and Northeast China, and the local drought in the northwest, which have brought considerable challenges to grain production, but the impact of meteorological disasters on agricultural production depends on whether disaster prevention and mitigation measures are in place. China has accumulated a lot of experience in agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, has a complete response mechanism from the first to the local, from the seed to the field, with the support of the party committees at all levels, stable production and production, "one spray three prevention", "one spray and multiple promotion" and other key technical measures have been put in place, which has minimized the impact of meteorological disasters on agricultural production.
From the perspective of space, China has a vast territory, diverse climate, and different agricultural resource endowments. Looking at the whole country, every year there will be places where production is reduced by disasters, and there will also be places where production will increase without disasters. This year, there has indeed been a reduction in output due to disasters in some parts of our country, but on the whole, it is important to focus on the points and light on the surface, and to make up for summer with autumn and to make up for the bad with abundance, so this year's grain harvest is still bumper on the whole. For example, due to the impact of heavy rains and floods, the output of some plots in Wuchang in Heilongjiang this year has been reduced or even lost, but from the perspective of Heilongjiang Province, the area of crops affected by the disaster is less than usual, and grain production has achieved "20 consecutive harvests". The same is true for the expansion of the scope to the whole country's year-round grain production.
Let's answer the second question: why can production increase when the area of arable land is decreasing? The results of the third national land survey show that at the end of 2019, China's cultivated land area decreased by 1 compared with ten years ago1.3 billion mu, and some people are worried about grain production. When we talk about yield, we have to look at the area and the yield. Let's start with the area. Autumn grain is the bulk of the year's grain production, and under a series of practical measures such as the joint responsibility of the party and government for food security, a number of special subsidies for grain production, and a series of practical measures, the area of autumn grain this year has increased for the fourth consecutive year. In the long run, the problem of the total amount of cultivated land in the past two years has been initially curbed, which has also provided strong support for a bumper grain harvest.
Then look at the yield. China has a large population and little land, and tapping the potential space for yield under the premise of limited area is an inevitable choice to increase grain output and ensure food security. In recent years, China has continued to increase grain output per unit area by storing grain on the ground and storing grain in technology, and this year's national grain yield is 390 kilograms, an increase of 2 per mu over the previous year9 kg. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also launched a large-scale action to increase the yield of major crops such as grain and oil, and according to expert surveys, the contribution rate to the increase in grain production reached 73% in the 300 key counties covered by the action. In the case that the space for increasing the area is getting smaller and smaller, the increase in yield has provided a new impetus for the increase of grain harvest.
Finally, let's look at the third question: why is China's grain harvest year after year, and imports are still growing? The General Administration of Customs previously released a set of data that from January to October 2023, China's cumulative grain imports were 129.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 73%, which sparked heated discussions for a while. Fundamentally speaking, the "double increase" in grain production and imports is due to the increase in our consumption. On the one hand, for a long time in the past, the total population of our country has continued to grow, and there are more and more mouths for eating, and the consumption is getting bigger and bigger. On the other hand, along with the process of urbanization, the improvement of people's living standards has brought about changes in the consumption structure, which has also greatly promoted the increase of grain consumption. In the past decade, China's per capita meat consumption has increased by 35%, which will inevitably lead to an increase in feed grain. As the saying goes, one pound of meat and five pounds of grain, the people's acquisition of every protein and calorie, from "eating enough" to "eating well", is not only a qualitative improvement, but also inseparable from the guarantee of quantity.
From the perspective of import structure, China's grain imports are mainly feed grains. From January to October this year, soybeans, corn, barley, sorghum and other traditional feed grain imports accounted for 87 percent of the total grain imports6%, although the proportion of imported wheat reached 83%, but a significant part is used as a substitute for corn, which is also used in feed processing. From the perspective of channels, it has also developed from a high degree of concentration in individual countries to diversification. Compared with feed, the proportion of imported grain used for rations is not large, and it is mainly used for variety adjustment. At present, China's self-sufficiency rate of rations is more than 100 percent, the self-sufficiency rate of cereals is more than 95 percent, and the per capita grain share is more than 485 kilograms, which is higher than the internationally recognized food security line of 400 kilograms. Of course, the supply of feed grain cannot be ignored, but as long as the strategic bottom line of "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of rations" is maintained, there will be no major problems for the Chinese to "eat", and the initiative of our development will be firmly in our own hands.
However, the increase in grain imports also reminds us that although China has bid farewell to the shortage of grain, grain supply and demand are still in a state of tight balance, and saving grain and reducing losses and protecting resources is a long-term important task for our country. We must always tighten the string of food security, and we must not feel at ease at any time, and we must strengthen conservation and loss reduction in all links of the entire food industry chain such as harvesting, storage, processing, transportation, sales, and consumption. Specific to each person, it is necessary to cherish every meal and save every grain.
In fact, food is closely related to the daily life of each of us, and the elasticity of demand is very low, and if there is a shortage of supply, it is often felt very quickly. From our side, there has been no sharp food price, nor has we heard of a food shortage, which shows that the overall quantity of food is still sufficient and the price is stable. Of course, in the context of the increasingly complex domestic and foreign environment, instability and uncertainties, we must not only cheer up the spirit of 120,000 points, always do our own things well, consolidate the cornerstone of the continuous harvest of grain, and ensure that the grain and rations "should be guaranteed"; On the other hand, it is also necessary to make full use of the two markets and two resources to achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between grain supply and demand, and firmly secure China's rice bowl.
*: Farmer**).
For more exciting information, please contact the application market**"Jimu News" client, do not be authorized**, welcome to provide news clues, and pay once adopted.