Reporter of China Industry NewsYu Na
At present, the global energy development environment is undergoing profound changes, energy security incidents are frequent, and risks are becoming more complex and unpredictable. Energy is substantial, crisis events have accelerated the diversification of the energy structure, and the game of discourse in the international oil market has become more and more intense.
Global energy development has entered a new phase of transformation and security, and geopolitics may change the global oil and gas supply and demand pattern. In the context of the dual carbon goals, the construction of China's new energy system can be divided into three stages, and hydrogen and CCUS (carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage) have become key technologies to support the energy transition. At the "2023 (10th) International Energy Development Summit Forum (IEEF)" held on December 7, Wu Mouyuan, vice president of the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technical Research Institute, released the "2060 World and China Energy Outlook Report (2023 Edition)", and said truthfully.
The global energy industry chain is moving towards decoupling
According to the report, the global energy industry chain is decoupling, and new energy continues to flourish.
The Ukraine crisis continues to evolve, triggering a mismatch between global energy supply and demand, intensifying market volatility, global political and economic development showing the characteristics of camping and regionalization, the great power game intensifies, and the energy industry chain is decoupling, and energy security has become a priority issue for energy development in all countries. Global energy development has entered a new phase of transformation and security. The attitude of various countries towards cooperation and game, security and transition determines the path of energy transition, and has become the biggest uncertainty in energy development.
The world's primary energy has maintained a growth trend, and energy has shifted to the era of non-fossil energy. Under the scenario of comprehensive cooperation, benchmark and deep game (hereinafter referred to as the three scenarios), the primary energy demand in 2060 will reach 19.1 billion tons, 18.2 billion tons and 17.3 billion tons of standard oil, an increase of % and 30% compared with 2020, and developing countries in the Asia-Pacific and Africa regions are the main ones in the increase in energy demandResource endowment leads to different regional energy transition processes, but the development of terminal electrification and clean power generation is accelerating, the clean and low-carbon energy transition is unstoppable, and non-fossil energy has gradually become the main body of energy, accounting for % and 53% of primary energy in 2060 under the three scenarios.
The status of oil and gas as the main energy source has gradually changed, and its irreplaceability has gradually increased. Oil and gas will remain the main energy force in the medium to long term, with oil demand peaking at 4.7 billion tonnes in 2035 and natural gas demand reaching 4.7 billion tonnes in 2040 under the baseline scenario7 trillion cubic meters peak, accounting for 52% of primary energy by 2040. However, under the clean and low-carbon energy transition, the positioning and role of oil and gas continue to change, the "fuel" attribute is gradually diluted, oil is gradually turned to new materials and key raw materials, natural gas is gradually turned to the new cycle of chemical and power security, and the demand will remain stable for a long time due to the increasing difficulty of substitution.
Geopolitics could change the global oil and gas supply and demand landscape. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Palestinian-Israeli countries may trigger a deep game between major powers, extend the life cycle of fossil fuels, and profoundly change the global oil and gas supply and demand pattern. Sun Longde, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and chief expert of the Academic Committee of PetroChina's national high-end think tank, believes that the global oil and gas industry is showing a trend of "differentiation between the eastern and western hemispheres". "The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a gradual evolution of the global energy landscape towards 'hemispheric'. Europe in the Western Hemisphere has significantly increased its oil and gas imports from the United States, and Europe and the United States are forming a stable energy supply and demand chain in the Western HemisphereThe energy supply chain in the eastern hemisphere, dominated by China, India, Russia, and the Middle East, has become a more complex energy supply and demand chain. Sun Longde said.
Geopolitics determines the pattern of oil, and oil has shifted from the pursuit of economic benefits to geopolitical-led regional cooperation, and two parallel markets have begun to emerge. Under the game scenario, the proportion of Asia-Pacific oil** will reach 11% in 2060, an increase of 5 percentage points from the baseline scenario. The flow of natural gas** is gradually diversified, with natural gas production peaking around 2040, the proportion of production in North America and Europe declining, and the proportion of production in Africa, Central and South America, and the Middle East increasing. The proportion of global LNG** is gradually expanding, and under the baseline scenario, LNG** will account for 57% in 2060, an increase of 16 percentage points from 2022.
It is worth noting that with the gradual improvement of the stability of wind power and photovoltaic technology in recent years, the return on equity investment in wind and solar power generation assets has gradually decreased. Ding Guorong, deputy general manager of Silk Road ** Co., Ltd., reminded that equity investment in wind and solar power generation assets is showing the risk-return attribute of "debt-like", and some international first-line PE investment institutions are choosing to invest in development platforms to improve yields. The energy transition is gradual, and it is necessary to pay attention to the transition and smooth connection of the old and new energy structures, and avoid the radical transformation. For some countries with unique resource endowments and weak infrastructure such as supporting power grids, emission reductions can be achieved through more feasible ways such as technological transformation and energy efficiency improvement.
On the one hand, leverage more commercial capital to invest in new energy, hydrogen energy, and biofuels to replace some fossil energy through various financial instruments, and improve the electrification level of end-use energyOn the other hand, due to the inability to achieve complete carbon reduction under the current conditions, it is necessary to invest in end-of-line treatment technologies such as CCUS to help reduce carbon emissions. Ding Guorong suggested.
China's new energy system can be divided into "three steps".
In China, the development of clean and low-carbon energy consumption structure is accelerating, and hydrogen and CCUS have become key technologies to support the energy transition.
The report predicts that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 18 in 20233%, an increase of 08 percentage points. Energy self-sufficiency continues to improve, and it is estimated that energy output will reach 4.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2023, and energy self-sufficiency will increase to 87%, an increase of 09 percentage points.
Under the background of the dual carbon goal, the construction of a new energy system can be divided into "three steps". During the foundation building period (2022-2035), the development of new energy will be accelerated, and fossil energy will gradually reach its peakDuring the acceleration period (2036-2050), the construction of new power systems will be accelerated, and non-fossil energy will replace fossil energy in an orderly mannerDuring the completion period (2051-2060), non-fossil energy has become the main body of energy, and fossil energy has gradually turned to raw materials and emergency support.
The positioning of oil and gas in the new energy system continues to change and remains an important component. Under the construction of the new energy system, oil will give more prominence to the attribute of "raw materials", and natural gas will gradually become an important support for development, and the positioning will drive the synchronous transformation of demand. By the completion period, oil will become an indispensable supporting raw material, natural gas will turn to deep carbon reduction support, and oil and gas demand will be reduced to 2200 million tons and 380.8 billion cubic meters.
Hydrogen and CCUS have become key technologies to support the energy transition. Hydrogen has become a key option for deep decarbonization at the end. As an important way of renewable energy consumption and energy storage, hydrogen is also an indispensable energy variety for deep emission reduction at the end of the term. Under the three scenarios, the demand will reach 1200 million tons, 0900 million tons and 0700 million tons, and the proportion of hydrogen produced from renewable electricity (green hydrogen) reaches % and 70%. CCUS is a fundamental technology to achieve carbon neutrality. In the outlook period, the scale of carbon dioxide emissions from direct utilization of fossil energy is large, and it is necessary to rely on CCUS and other technologies to neutralize it. Under the three scenarios, 1.4 billion tonnes, 1.5 billion tonnes and 2.1 billion tonnes of decarbonization from CCUS technology in 2060 could be achieved.
Li Feiqiang, deputy general manager of Beijing SinoHytec Technology Co., Ltd., said that in the fuel cell industry chain, Sinohytec has completed the layout of a completely independent and controllable technology chain from membrane electrodes, bipolar plates, stacks to engines, and gradually realized the independence, localization and industrialization of hydrogen fuel engines and their key materials and core components. In the hydrogen energy industry chain, it is necessary for energy companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec to promote the improvement of energy chains such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, and hydrogen refueling, and jointly promote the sustainable development of renewable energy.
China will lead the development of the global new energy industry. In terms of wind and solar energy development, it is estimated that in 2023, the installed capacity and power generation of wind and solar energy will reach 1 billion kilowatts and 14 trillion kilowatt hours, accounting for 39% and 37% of the world's total. New energy vehicles have broken through the critical point of the industry, and the sales volume is expected to reach 9 million units in 2023, with a sales penetration rate of more than 30%.
Review: Yu Zaozao.
Editor-in-charge: Huo Yue.
Editor: Hu Na.