On the hot search list in 2023, various topics such as "young people are beginning to be keen on buying", selling houses and buying", "central banks hoarding" and other topics have repeatedly been on the list, so looking forward to 2024, can **continue to be strong?
"Sell your house and buy **".
**Catering to the peak consumption season
According to CCTV Finance and Economics, recently, gold prices continue to remain at a high level, and the end of the year is the peak season for consumption.
In Quzhou, Zhejiang, there are 15 ** stores on a street less than 200 meters long, and the person in charge of several stores told reporters that most of these stores have been opened in the past two or three years. In Badong County, Enshi, Hubei Province, there are 6 ** shops on Wuxia Road, which is known as "** street", and the distance between each store is less than 20 meters.
In addition to third- and fourth-tier cities, consumption in big cities is also hot. According to the Beijing Caishikou Department Store in Xicheng District, Beijing, although the gold price is still high, the gold jewelry sales area on the first floor is crowded, and consumers are enthusiastic about buying gold. At the same time, the sales staff of many gold jewellery brands also frequently display new products of their own brands on WeChat Moments, including related products such as "Natal Year" and "National Tide Style". Looking at the trend of international gold prices throughout 2023, the international gold price in US dollars has exceeded 13% for the whole year, and the gold price has had a wave from May to early October this year, but then it has come out of the "V" shaped trend and touched $2,149 ounces in early December, a record high, and as of press time, it is still above $2,000.
According to China Business Daily, as of December 31, 2023, according to major domestic brand gold stores**, Chow Tai Fook** has a maximum of 624 yuan and Caibai jewelry** has a minimum of 612 yuan;The gold price of Zhou Shengsheng is 622 yuan, the gold price of Lukfook Jewellery is 624 yuan, the gold price of Xie Ruilin is 622 yuan, the price of Chaohong is 624 yuan, the gold price of Lao Miao is 623 yuan, the gold price of Lao Fengxiang is 624 yuan, the gold price of China is 612 yuan, and the price of Liufu gold is 624 yuan. And the news of selling houses and hoarding ** is also very eye-catching. According to the Daily Economic News on December 22, 35-year-old Hu Guoxiao has been engaged in jewelry wholesale for many years.
As early as March and April 2023, Hu Guoxiao listed two residences in order to quickly return the funds. Hu Guoxiao said, "A set of more than 150 square meters, a set of more than 130 square meters, two sets of a total of more than 6 million yuan, more than 6 million yuan has arrived, as soon as the money arrives, immediately go to hoard."
Hu Guo smiled and said, "All the funds are bet on **, I don't panic at all, mainly based on so many years of experience and judgment of fundamentals." Looking back now, when the more than 6 million yuan was hoarded, the price of gold was still relatively low, and now it has earned at least 30 yuan to 40 yuan per gram. ”
Central banks around the world are buying gold aggressively
In addition to the strong demand for gold purchases from ordinary consumers and businesses, 2023 is also a year for major central banks around the world to buy gold aggressively.
In the first three quarters of 2023, global demand remained stable and exceeded the average of the past decade, mainly due to net purchases by central banks and the development of jewelry manufacturing, said An Kai, global research head of the World ** Association.
According to the 2023 Global Central Bank Reserve Survey, more than 70% of central banks surveyed expect global reserves to increase over the next 12 months. Inflation, geopolitical risks, sanctions risks, and the multipolarity of the global reserve currency system are the main drivers of central bank purchases. Ankai noted that this trend is likely to continue for many years and is expected to further support the performance of ** on a traditional driving basis. According to data released on the official website of the People's Bank of China, as of the end of November, the People's Bank of China** reserves reported 71.58 million ounces, up 380,000 ounces from the previous month. At present, the People's Bank of China** reserves have increased for 13 consecutive months. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said, "In recent years, some central banks have increased their holdings**, mainly to optimize the structure of official reserve assets, promote the diversification of official reserve assets, and enhance the ability of official reserve assets to withstand the volatility of the global financial market and asset stability. From the trend point of view, the credit of the US dollar has declined, the global financial market has fluctuated violently, and the diversification of foreign exchange reserves of various countries is expected to continue. ”
Can gold continue to rise in 2024?
However, after reaching a high above $2,000 ounce, institutions are divided on the future trend of **.
Optimists: Gold prices still have upward momentum
Optimists believe that risk aversion still exists and the dollar is in a downward cycle, and the ** sector may have support.
China Merchants ** believes that with the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the easing of inflation, the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in the middle of next year, thereby guiding the acceleration of the decline in nominal and real interest rates on U.S. bonds. Although the upward driving force of gold prices is not strong from the perspective of stable real interest rates in the United States, after the United States cuts interest rates, it is likely that the dollar will enter a new downward cycle, which will then push gold prices up. China Merchants ** said that reviewing historical data, the United States experienced two ** interest rate cuts from July 2007 to November 2008 and July 2019 to March 2020, respectively, while gold prices remained strong during the above periods.
Debang released a research report saying that it will still have strong upward momentum in 2024. First, in the context of increasing global uncertainty, the central bank's willingness to allocate ** in the future is still high, which has long-term support for gold prices;Second, the U.S. bond risk premium center may rise permanently, further strengthening the safe-haven attribute of **, which also means that in the context of declining US dollar credit, the monetary attribute of ** may return;Third, it is recommended to pay attention to the seasonal pattern of ** and find opportunities with high certainty to intervene. The League of Nations is optimistic about the short-term prosperity. The agency's research report pointed out that the ** industry has a certain cyclicality. In terms of demand structure, the proportion of consumer demand has remained above 60% for a long time, and its selectivity is strong, and its sensitivity to gold prices is low, mainly affected by factors such as per capita disposable income and the number of marriages, and the overall performance is stable. The investment demand is mainly for the purpose of obtaining investment returns, and the sensitivity to *** is high. Looking forward to 2024, the upward trend of gold prices is expected to superimpose the demand for non-wedding scenes such as accessories driven by the upgrading of jewelry technology, as well as the traditional peak season of the industry during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays, and the short-term prosperity is expected to continue. Cautious: The current price is not suitable for chasing up
Cautious people believe that the short-term marginal risk accumulates, and the current position is not suitable for chasing up.
Wang Xiang, manager of Bosera Index and Quantitative Investment Department, said that from December 15 to January 15 of the following year, the market is likely to show a pattern, mainly for speculating on commodity rebalancing and Chinese New Year consumption. However, due to the fact that the increase in the whole year of 2023 is not small, it may be difficult to have further momentum for repositioning. Wang Xiang believes that it is normal for gold prices to become more volatile in the area near record highs, and investors should neither be overzealous in the overbought state of the market, nor completely lose confidence after its breakthrough failure. On the whole, the short-term marginal risk of ** assets has accumulated, and from the perspective of risk and return, it is no longer appropriate to chase up in the current position.
Sino Analytica said that it is expected that the signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the first half of 2024 may be more obvious, and the continued geopolitical risks may increase the volatility of the financial market compared with the previous period. The risk point may be that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at a point that lags behind market expectations. Recently, the market has given a significant boost to the Fed's interest rate cut trade, but the latter has priced in more changes in expectations. It is recommended that investors actively pay attention to the trend. Zhou Maohua, an analyst at Everbright Bank, said that at present, the company is at a historical high, and ordinary investors need to be wary of potential volatility risks. Although the market's reaction to geopolitical conflicts has weakened, and major central banks in Europe and the United States are gradually withdrawing from unconventional easing policies, the current geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, especially the advanced economies continue to maintain tight policies, and the trend is not clear. Zhou Maohua stressed that the market is currently quite reliant on data guidance, and investors need to be wary of the impact of unexpected data fluctuations as the economic and inflation outlook remains uncertain.
It is for investors' information only and does not constitute investment advice
Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).