The world's shipping giant suspends crossing the Suez Canal, and the well-known shipping company Maersk announced that due to repeated attacks on cargo ships by the Houthis in the Red Sea region, it has decided to suspend the route through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, choosing to detour the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. Mediterranean Shipping and Hapag-Lloyd have made similar decisions. All three companies are leaders in the global shipping industry. MSC is currently the world's top shipping line, while Maersk, which has long maintained its leading position, temporarily fell to second place in 2023, and its shipping volume still accounts for 148%。Hapag-Lloyd has a smaller share, but also has a 7% market share. Together, these three companies account for 40% of global shipping volume. The suspension of the Suez Canal crossing will have a huge impact on the global economy. The importance of the Suez Canal cannot be overstated. If a ship avoids the Suez Canal and chooses to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, the voyage will be extended by 10 to 14 days, and the cost of fuel, crew salaries and wear and tear will increase, and the impact on the world economy can be imagined. Asia to Europe** will bear the brunt of the impact. At the moment, the three major companies have not announced the cost of the bypass, but it is expected to be in the tens of billions of dollars.
As the world's largest manufacturing country, China's annual turnover with Europe is hundreds of billions of dollars, and its impact cannot be ignored. The reason for this situation is that the West has underestimated the impact of the Palestinian conflict. In the past few Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, the Arab world has hit the West by sharply raising oil prices, but has not cut the Suez Canal. In addition, the main actor controlling oil prices is the state**, and the West can communicate and mediate through diplomatic means. Moreover, the deterrence that the Arab world can create is limited to controlling oil prices. However, the Houthis are not ** and have no diplomatic relations with the West. Despite this, this armed force is powerful, and its combat effectiveness even exceeds that of the regular armies of many countries. With Iranian support, the Houthis are armed with a large number of anti-ship missiles and are able to control another exit from the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The West is unprepared for this. In the early days of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Houthis repeatedly warned that they would take action without an immediate ceasefire and a cessation of their aggression against the Palestinians. However, the Western world has turned a deaf ear, completely ignored the Houthi statements, and continues to condone and shelter Israel.
More than two months after the conflict began, the Houthis finally had enough of it and began to attack Israeli cargo ships, gradually expanding the scope of their strikes. This situation is reminiscent of the Gulf ship raid in the 80s of the last century. At that time, Iran and Iraq indiscriminately attacked cargo ships and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in order to weaken each other's economic power, triggering a worldwide crisis. The US Navy immediately launched an armed escort program and launched Operation Praying Mantis, which was directed specifically at Iran. After more than two months of conflict, the Houthis finally had enough of it and began to attack Israeli freighters, gradually expanding the scope of their strikes. This situation is reminiscent of the Gulf ship raids of the 80s of the last century. At that time, in order to weaken each other's economic power, Iran and Iraq indiscriminately attacked cargo ships and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, triggering a worldwide crisis. The U.S. Navy then launched an armed convoy program and launched Operation Praying Mantis, which specifically targeted Iran. If the Houthis do not achieve the desired outcome this time, it is entirely possible that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be completely blocked, making it impossible for people to pass through the Suez Canal. Now the Western camp is very nervous, and several countries send warships to the scene. The first is Israel.
The Houthis have made a gesture of fighting Israel to the death. The ship's data is now publicly available and easily available on the Internet. Even after their good offices, the Houthis may release cargo ships from other countries, but they will never allow cargo ships to or from Israel, or ships registered in Israel. Therefore, the main forces of the Israeli Navy have been urgently dispatched, and four Saar-6 frigates have entered the Red Sea, intending to suppress the Houthis and carry out anti-missile interception. Nowadays, Western countries are nervous, and warships from many countries have been dispatched. The first is Israel, which has acted resolutely against Houthi attacks. The Houthis have declared their incompatibility with Israel. The ship's data is now publicly available and easily available on the Internet. Even after their good offices, the Houthis may release cargo ships from other countries, but they will never allow cargo ships to or from Israel, or ships registered in Israel. Therefore, the main forces of the Israeli Navy have been urgently dispatched, and four Saar-6 frigates have entered the Red Sea, intending to suppress the Houthis and carry out anti-missile interception. Second, European countries are also very nervous. The war in Ukraine has already had a severe impact on the European economy, and it would be even worse if there were further problems in the shipping industry.
Therefore, Great Britain and France have sent warships to the Red Sea. The British destroyer USS Diamond made a sortie on December 16 and intercepted the Houthi drone. Thirdly, Japan and South Korea are equally heavily dependent on the ** of Europe, and if the Red Sea route is cut off, the losses are equally unbearable. Now, both the South Korean anti-missile destroyer Yang Man-chun and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force's Akebono destroyer have been deployed to the position of the exit from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Second, European countries are also very nervous. The war in Ukraine has already had a severe impact on the European economy, and it would be even worse if there were further problems in the shipping industry. Therefore, Great Britain and France have sent warships to the Red Sea. The British destroyer USS Diamond made a sortie on December 16 and intercepted the Houthi drone. In addition, Japan and South Korea are equally heavily dependent on the ** of Europe, and if the Red Sea route is cut off, the losses are equally unbearable. Now, both the South Korean anti-missile destroyer Yang Man-chun and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force's Akebono destroyer have been deployed to the position of the exit from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Most irritated was the United States, which initially sent only one destroyer, USS Carney, into the Red Sea to intercept Houthi missiles fired into Israel. The USS Eisenhower, the main force of the U.S. Navy, has been deterring Iran in the Persian Gulf.
Now, the U.S. Navy has added an additional USS Mason in the Red Sea. The Eisenhower battle group also maneuvered south, reaching a position that could threaten Yemen. Most irritated was the United States, which initially sent only one destroyer, USS Carney, into the Red Sea to intercept Houthi missiles fired into Israel. The USS Eisenhower, the main force of the U.S. Navy, has been deterring Iran in the Persian Gulf. Now, the U.S. Navy has added an additional USS Mason in the Red Sea. The Eisenhower battle group also maneuvered south, reaching a position that could threaten Yemen. Will the Houthis abandon their stance in the face of a multinational siege?I am afraid that if Western countries want to use force to solve the problem of the Red Sea shipping cut-off, they will not be able to achieve their wish. A careful inventory of the forces deployed by Western countries shows that in addition to the aircraft carrier battle group, there are actually only six destroyers and four frigates in total, among which the Carney was drawn from the Eisenhower battle group. Will the Houthis abandon their stance in the face of a multinational siege?I am afraid that if Western countries want to use force to solve the problem of the Red Sea shipping cut-off, they will not be able to achieve their wish.
A careful inventory of the forces deployed by Western countries shows that in addition to the aircraft carrier battle group, there are actually only six destroyers and four frigates in total, among which the Carney was drawn from the Eisenhower battle group. There were very few carriers left of the US aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, only the cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the destroyer USS Gravrey. And Israel's four frigates are not the best choice for operations in the far sea, because it is difficult for them to hold out for days in the Red Sea region. Under these circumstances, the military pressure on Iran, the main supporter of the Houthis, has suddenly decreased, and even if the US military launches a large-scale bombardment, it will be difficult to weaken its combat effectiveness. The West's limited military presence in the vast Red Sea and Arabian Sea creates a fragile defensive line with holes that make it difficult to pose a threat to the Houthis. The impact of the Red Sea blockade on China exists, but it is not enormous. At the very least, Chinese ships will be provided with some security, as the Houthis will not take hostile actions against Chinese shipping companies. However, in any case, the simultaneous suspension of sailings by the three major shipping companies will still have an adverse impact on China and Europe. We therefore continue to hope that the conflict between Israel and Palestine will be resolved peacefully as soon as possible and that the Red Sea shipping lanes will be restored to normal at an early date.