In November last year, the rapid development of the epidemic and the continuous expansion of the scope of the epidemic affected Henan, Guangdong, Chongqing, Beijing and Inner Mongolia and other major auto consumption provinces, resulting in the poor performance of the domestic auto market at that time, only 16320,000 units.
As a result, the sales volume of the domestic passenger car market (both domestic and imported) in November this year increased by 21% year-on-year8% to 19870,000 units. It seems to be a very strong growth, but in fact, the figure is only about 150,000 units.
In other words, despite the continuous policies of car companies and dealers, the trend of the car market at the end of this year is still relatively stable as of November, and the "car buying boom" at the end of the year has not yet arrived.
Cumulatively, after continuous substantial growth, the cumulative sales of the passenger car market in the first 11 months of this year reached 1,93330,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64%。
According to this calculation, the total domestic passenger car market will close at least 21 million units this year, and may even exceed 2132 in 202130,000 units, a record high in recent years.
While the overall market is stable and upward, the new energy segment (including plug-in hybrid, pure electric, range extender, methanol and fuel cell) continues to develop rapidly, reaching a new high of 76 in November60,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 428%, and the penetration rate in the passenger car market has further increased to 385%。
From this point of view, the new energy penetration rate of the domestic passenger car market should continue to approach 40%, and even December may cross this threshold.
In the first 11 months, the total sales volume of new energy has reached 63850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 402% and a penetration rate of 330%。
The traditional fuel vehicle market, after the year-on-year growth finally turned positive again in October, continued to usher in positive growth under the premise of a low base in November, and the growth rate expanded to 115%。
On a month-on-month basis, sales of traditional fuel vehicles actually decreased by nearly 40,000 units in November, so its share of overall passenger vehicles continued to narrow to 61 in November5%, making the share of this segment further narrow to 67% in the first 11 months. Therefore, it is impossible to imagine that the share of traditional fuel in passenger cars will be less than 70% this year.
With the continuous development of the new energy and traditional fuel market, the share of different vehicle types in the passenger car market also continues to evolve, and the sedan, which has been surpassed by SUVs for several months, returned to the dominant position again in November, with 480% ahead of the former's 472%。Obviously, although the sedan has once again seized the "opportunity", the gap between the two has been significantly narrowed.
According to the data, there will be a "reversal" in the car market in November, thanks to the increase in sales of new energy cars to 3820,000 units, of which pure electric cars exceeded 300,000 units in a single month for the first time to reach 3130,000 units, an increase of nearly 20,000 units month-on-month.
Specifically, this time the leap in the pure electric market is based on Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, Tesla Model 3, BYD Qin PLUS EV, Hongqi E-QM5 and Buick Velite6, especially Tesla Model 3 and Buick Velite6.
As we all know, deliveries of the new Model 3 officially began on October 26, and November was its first full delivery month, with sales quickly rebounding to 15,384 units, an increase of more than 120,000 units, providing a large new increment for the pure electric car market.
In mid-October, SAIC-GM announced that the starting price of the Buick Velite6 pure electric vehicle would be reduced to 9980,000 units, limited to 5,000 units, which made the sales of the car increase significantly in the past two months, directly soaring to 9,655 units in November, an increase of more than 6,000 units month-on-month.
While the sedan and SUV market is changing due to new energy sources, MPVs have also undergone considerable changes with the increasing number of new energy models such as the VOYAH Dreamer, Denza D9, ZEEKR 009 and Trumpchi E9 PHEV.
With the support of new energy products, the monthly share of MPVs in the passenger car market in the first nine months of this year was stable at about 5%, so the share of this segment in the overall market in the first three quarters also reached 51%。
However, due to the sharp decline in sales of conventional fuel MPVs, which are large in size, and the loss caused by the loss of NEV MPVs, the average monthly sales of MPVs in October and November decreased from 70,000 units to 60,000 units, and the share of passenger cars also decreased to 4.4 units, respectively0% and 41%, of which the share of conventional fuels is only 31%, through the data of these two months, it is found that the traditional fuel MPV models with reduced sales are mainly Buick GL8, Wuling Hongguang, Trumpchi M8, Toyota Sena, Wuling Jiachen, and Toyota Grevia.
In turn, as the leader of the domestic mid-to-high-end MPV, the sales of GL8 have basically remained above 10,000 units in the past two years, but they rose to 1 in SeptemberAfter 20,000 units, the number dropped to 8,174 units in October and only 9,172 units in November.
The rest of the models are similar to the GL8, such as the Trumpchi M8, which once sold at 7,000 units per month, but fell to 6,207 units in October and fell further to 5,896 units in NovemberWuling Jiachen, Toyota Sena and Grevia all sold about 500 fewer units than their previous average monthly sales.
As for Wuling Hongguang (including Hongguang S and Hongguang Plus), which is a representative of the means of production type MPV, after maintaining an average monthly sales of about 8,000 units in the first eight months, sales began to decrease significantly in September, with less than 7,000 units in September and October, and only 6,297 units in November.
Obviously, compared with a small number of means of production MPVs, the decline in sales of mid-to-high-end products such as GL8, Trumpchi M8, Toyota Sena and Grevia is likely to be the real reason for the sharp decline in sales in the MPV market in the past two months.
It is also worth mentioning that the total sales of GL8 in the first 11 months of this year were 1100,000 units, nearly 1 ahead of the second-ranked Denza D930,000 units, which means that the former will continue to be the top of the domestic mid-to-high-end MPV market this year.
However, considering that in the first 11 months, GL8 only increased by 34%, with 18 in the MPV marketThere is a big difference in the 2% increase, coupled with the development of new energy products such as Denza D9, Zeekr 009 and the upcoming Xpeng X9 and Ideal MEGA, it may be difficult to continue to win the championship in this segment in 2024.