The momentum of the renminbi has reversed significantly in a week's time, falling by more than 500 points. In the past few weeks, the renminbi has continued to rise and gradually decreased, showing that the momentum of the first has begun to decay. However, the necessary adjustments after a significant ** are to be expected. After the first three days of the week, the yuan showed another 176 points against the dollar at 16:15 on Thursday afternoon. There are several factors behind this volatility that we need to pay attention to.
First of all, the expectations of the global market for the Fed meeting are decisive. Although the market generally does not raise interest rates again, there are still uncertainties, and market expectations have a significant impact on the direction of the exchange rate. As a result, exchange rate markets will remain subject to volatility until the end of the Fed meeting.
Second, the long-term factors affecting the trend of the renminbi mainly depend on the trend of the Chinese and American economies. The latest released data shows that the PMI of China's manufacturing and service industries has exceeded 50 and entered the expansion range, which indicates that China's economy is gradually improving. However, at present, China is in a period of shifting gears in the economic structure, and economic growth is no longer overly dependent on investment and investment, but pays more attention to the growth of domestic demand. Fluctuations in the process of this economic restructuring will inevitably have an impact on the exchange rate.
According to the data on the share of global currency payments released by the SWIFT system, the proportion of US dollar payments reached 47 in October this year25%, although there has been a fluctuation in the past two months, the proportion of US dollar payments has increased compared to half a year ago. However, this does not mean that the de-dollarization policy has failed.
First of all, it is worth noting that the main reason for the increase in the share of US dollar payments is the decrease in the share of the euro. The euro once went hand in hand with the dollar, but now only 2336%。Therefore, the increase in the share of the dollar is not due to the substitution of other currencies for the dollar, but rather to the relative weakening of the euro.
Secondly, as more and more countries use their own currencies for bilateral** settlements, and the use of other payment systems gradually expands, the currency payments in SWIFT statistics cannot cover all situations. In addition, the coverage of the CIPS system introduced in China is constantly expanding, and many of these payments do not go through the SWIFT system, so they are not included in the statistics.
In addition, the application scenarios of China's digital yuan are gradually increasing, which will undoubtedly promote the use of RMB in the international environment. Therefore, we cannot read too much into de-dollarization based on SWIFT statistics alone.
Despite the uncertainty and volatility of the RMB in the short term, the RMB is still expected to continue to be in the medium to long term**. The economic trend of China and the United States, the situation and the effect of China's economic restructuring will have an important impact on the exchange rate trend of the RMB.
At present, China's economy is in a period of transition, exports are subject to weak foreign demand, and the main driving force of economic growth is gradually shifting to domestic demand. Economic fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations in the process of this transition are normal phenomena, and with the adjustment of economic structure and the enhancement of domestic demand, the RMB exchange rate is expected to gradually stabilize and show an upward trend.
In short, despite the short-term exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB, in the long run, the RMB still has the best space. With the continuous development of China's economy and the advancement of the de-dollarization policy, the RMB is expected to play a more important role in the international arena. For investors, it is crucial to pay attention to economic fundamentals and market changes, and grasp the development trend of the RMB exchange rate.
Finally, investment is risky and needs to be cautious. When trading foreign exchange, you need to make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance and investment objectives, and properly manage risks.