The mutiny of the Wagner Group, after causing global shock, quickly subsided. The private military company, led by Prigozhin, a former Russian cook, once tried to stage a coup d'état, attack Moscow, and overthrow Putin's regime, but with Lukashenko's mediation, retreated to Belarus with its troops. The move raises questions about whether there is any secret agreement between Prigozhin and Putin, and whether there is some larger conspiracy.
Prigozhin is a businessman whose purpose is to protect his interests, not political ideals. His Wagner Group, which has 50,000 or 60,000 people, is Russia's largest private military company, has participated in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and has also provided military services to other countries. His ambition may just be to be a temporary ** and enjoy the taste of power, rather than wanting to stay in power for a long time.
Putin is a politician whose purpose is to preserve his authority, not for personal gain. His Russian Defense Forces, with millions of people, are one of the most powerful military forces in the world, but in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, they have encountered great difficulties and lost a lot of troops and materials. His concern may be the contradictions between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense, as well as Shoigu, a possible **person, and not Prigozhin's rebellion.
Lukashenko is an intermediary who aims to balance his relationship, not for either side. His Belarusian army is only forty or fifty thousand people, which is the military power of a small country, but under the protection of Russia's nuclear **, it has a certain sense of security. His consideration may be how to use the Wagner Group to increase his influence and how to avoid being implicated by Putin and Prigozhin, rather than how to take in the Wagner Group.
So, when the mutiny of the Wagner Group occurred, the interests and motives of the three parties were different, but they all had a common goal, that is, to avoid the escalation of the war and avoid the outbreak of a world war. Prigozhin knew that his strength was not enough to confront Putin and he did not want to be hunted down by other countries, so he accepted Lukashenko's mediation, abandoned the coup plan, and retreated to Belarus with his troops. Putin knew that his troops were no longer enough and did not want to clash with Prigozhin head-on, so he agreed to Lukashenko's mediation, spared Prigozhin, and let him go to Belarus with his troops. Lukashenko knew that his position was delicate and he didn't want to turn against Putin or Prigozhin, so he offered to mediate, took Prigozhin in, and let him stay in Belarus with his troops.
In this way, all three parties have achieved their goals and avoided greater troubles, which seems to be a peaceful ending, but in fact it is a temporary balance, a potential crisis. Because of the existence of the Wagner Group, Belarus has become a destabilizing factor, a possible powder keg. If Prigozhin rebels again, or uses nuclear ** to launch an attack on Ukraine or Poland, then both Putin and Lukashenko will be under tremendous pressure to make a choice, either on Prigozhin's side, or on the side of NATO, or remain neutral, but in any case, it will provoke a bigger conflict, a bigger war.
So, the mutiny of the Wagner Group did not end, but entered a new phase, an even more dangerous one. Next year is the first year for all countries in the world, and whether Biden of the United States can be re-elected will directly affect the victory or defeat of Russia and Ukraine, and will also affect the trend of the world situation. Therefore, around next year, it will also be a turning point and a key point in the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the world. Prigozhin is a radical, and he may launch a new operation at this time to try to change the situation or gain more for himself. By that time, World War III may have been ignited by the Wagner Group.