100 help plan
Author |Cat brother.
*|Big Cat True Detective Agency.
The throat of global shipping has been choked again.
On the afternoon of December 18, Yemen's Houthi rebels issued a statement that they had taken military action against two cargo ships sailing in the Red Sea, directly attacking them.
The Houthis saidBoth ships have close ties to Israel, but the owner of one of the ships said, I don't.
International shipping information shows that the attacked container ship MSC Clara,Flying the Panamanian flag,If nothing else, the ship will arrive in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates on Christmas Eve.
And the other Swan AtlanticAlthough the tanker was flying the Cayman Islands flag, the owner was from Norway and the hull was hit by multiple shells, but in addition to the damage to the tank, other systems are still operating normally, and the crew is temporarily safe.
The Norwegian owner said the ship had nothing to do with Israel, was carrying vegetable oil and was destined for Réunion, France's overseas province in the Indian Ocean.
Since intervening in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 31, Yemen's Houthis have launched attacks on Israel itselfIt also pulled the battle line to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, aimed ** at Israeli-related cargo ships and launched attacks.
Although in the announcement of the attack, the Houthis demanded that ships bound for Israel be prevented from sailing in the Red Sea until more food and medicine were allowed into Gaza, the situation has actually expanded given the complexity of maritime "nationality".
In November, the Houthis also seized a cargo ship, the Galaxy Leader, on the grounds that it wasThe Bahamian-flagged freighter, which is owned by the United Kingdom and operated by Japan en route from Turkey to India, is under Israeli control.
Although Oman has intervened in mediation, it will take time to recover.
Does it work to target Israel with the Red Sea?Not to mention, it really works.
Originally, the choke point of the sea, that had to be the Suez Canal, could not only collect tolls, but also get stuck in the neck.
After Egypt's independence, it was announced that Israeli ships were closed to navigation in the Suez Canal, which made Israel suffer a lot, so that later the two sides continued to fight, and for this lifeline, Israel almost occupied the Suez Canal during the third Middle East war.
Why?30% of Israeli imports are done through containers on the Red Sea route.
Now, not yet to the Suez Canal,Israel was choked in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
And now, in order to avoid being associated with Israel,The shipping bigwigs simply stopped receiving orders from IsraelAfter all, the risk is too great, and if a missile comes, it is life-threatening.
If there is a long-term flight cut-off, Israel may also need to be airdropped like Gaza.
StillStuck in Israel, but also stuck in Egypt,The whole route can't be traveled, and the Suez Canal tolls can't be collected.
According to the Suez Canal Authority,In fiscal year 2022-2023, the canal's revenue is about $9.4 billionEgypt's tourism industry has been affected by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and now, the record amount of money to buy roads is also going to come to naught.
Still, it's a lot of fun.
The United States actually preceded the attack of these two shipsA maritime alliance has been organized to protect the ** on the route, but the effect is limited, otherwise the shipping bigwigs will not either divert or cut off the voyage.
To a certain extent, the narrative logic of the Houthis using the Red Sea to pray for assistance for the people of Gaza has been accepted by many people, and the United States and Israel are somewhat unable to save face.
But if this continues, it may be a round of global price increases.
Nearly 20,000 ships pass through the Suez Canal every year, accounting for about 14% of global shipping, and in 2021, Suez Cloud Airlines was cut off, causing the world's largest weekly losses, between $6 billion and $10 billion.
This year, the crisis in the Panama Canal has not been resolved, and the crisis in the Red Sea has been further superimposed.
If you don't go to the Red Sea, then you have to go around the Cape of Good HopeThe sailing distance will be 30% more, about 8-14 days more, and the cost of fuel alone will need to increase by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and if you add a series of factors such as the suspension of sailings, the freight will be more expensive.
And the premium for the risk area has been from 0 to 0 of the value of the vessel07%** to 05-0.About 7%, the highest increase is about 10 times.
In front of us, Europe is about to usher in Christmas, detour or cut off the flight, which may lead to the problem of insufficient Christmas, this Christmas, Europeans may have a very restless life because of Israel.
AbsolutelyThe most important impact has to be energy.
Every day, almost 6 million barrels of oil pass through this route, and the main destination is Europe.
Even before the escalation of the situation, there were already oil tankers diverted, while Europe reduced pipeline gas from Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine conflictAnd the alternative gas-producing countries also have to rely on the Red Sea route.
However, for China, the impact is limited.
First of all, there is not so much dependence on shipping routes, and secondly, the China-Europe train can still guarantee a part of the export to Europe.
Of course, if international oil prices and natural gas** fluctuate as a result, it will inevitably have some impact.