In recent years, the whole society has been extremely concerned about the number of newborns, and they are all concerned about the rapid decline in the birth rate. Some experts are even more worried, and there is a sense of urgency that seems to be about to destroy the country and extinct the species.
My view on these so-called "brick homes" is that they should not be ignored at all, because there will be a wave of "baby boomers" in the near future.
You may not believe it yet, and let me analyze them one by one.
1. The average age of a woman's first child.
According to the query of Chinese population statistics, the average reproductive age of Chinese women's first child in 2023 is 264 years old, the second child is 287 years old.
The age of a woman's first child changes with the development of the economy, and the level of education, geographical influence, work occupation, religious belief, etc. also affect this value. Overall, the age of women at birth for their first child is gradually increasing.
In general, the age of first-birth of women in large cities is higher than that of small and medium-sized cities, and that of women in coastal areas is greater than that of women in the interior and central and western regions, which is highly correlated with factors such as education and employment.
The rapid development of urbanization has also promoted the increase of the age of women's first childbearing.
2. Analysis of neonatal data in 2022.
On October 12, 2023, the National Health Commission released the "2022 Statistical Communiqué on the Development of China's Health Undertakings", stating that the number of births in the country in 2022 was 9.56 million. In 2022, the proportion of second children born in the population is 389%, and the proportion of three children and above is 150%, and the sex ratio at birth was 1111。
I don't want to make any judgments about the authenticity of this data, but there are a lot of puzzling things about this data.
Based on this data, we can calculate that the proportion of firstborn births in 2022 is 461%，440.720,000 people.
According to the provisions of China's marriage law, that is to say, in 2022, a total of 8.81 million young people born in 1995 gave birth to their first child (calculated according to the average age of the first child 27 years old, and 2022 corresponds to 1995), and other young people in that year were either unmarried or childless [Note: are calculated according to the average age of the first child of 27 years old, and are estimated according to the same age of men and women, which is not very accurate, but it can already explain the problem].
3. Analysis of the population of births in 1995.
According to the data bulletin of the Sixth Population Census, 18.64 million people were born in 1995, and according to 85% of the population, a total of 15.84 million people can have normal marriages and children. Among them, 85% of the normal marriage and childbearing ratio is already quite low, and generally it will not be lower than this value.
According to this data analysis, 15.84 million people were born in 1995 and can have normal marriage and childbearing, 8.81 million people have completed marriage and childbearing in 2022, and 7.03 million people have not completed marriage and childbearing in 2022 (an average of about 3.5 million couples).
If calculated according to the 18.64 million people born in 1995, the proportion of unfinished marriage and childbirth is 3771%；If calculated according to the population of 15.84 million who can marry and have children normally, the proportion of unfinished marriage and childbirth is 4438 percent, which is already very high.
Fourth, what will be the result of the accumulation of unmarried and childbearing population?
For the time being, we will start to accumulate the population with normal conditions for marriage and childbearing from 2020 to the actual number of people who have not completed marriage and childbearing, and the number of births in 2023 is tentatively estimated to be 8 million, and in the four years of 2020 and 2023, there should have been about 30 million young people who can marry and have children normally but have not completed marriage and childbearing.
If, under certain suitable conditions, the 30 million "surplus married and childbearing population" (the remaining unmarried childbearing population) suddenly open their minds and give birth at the same time in a certain year, the number of births in that year will directly exceed 20 million.
When these "surplus married and childbearing population" begin to have children, the number of second and multiple children will naturally increase, so it is very possible that various factors will be superimposed to form a "super baby boom" of 30 million births that year.
Fifth, the pressing task at the moment is to take precautions for a rainy day and resume "family planning" as soon as possible
Once this "super baby boom" appears, the number of births in the country may even exceed 40 million.
This is by no means alarmist, but the superposition of the "surplus marriage and childbearing population" and the "lack of second and multiple births" in a special year for many years.
If you don't think this is going to happen, it depends on two things:
1. It is true that such a large proportion of the population will be "sterile for life";
2. There is a serious deviation in the "2022 fertility population data" of the National Health Commission, and the data is wrong.
Don't worry about the low number of births in the population, because it is completely superfluous.
If a reward of 10 million yuan is given to give birth to a child, the 60-year-old lady may start to act.
There are more than 400 million women of childbearing age in China, and even if 50% of the children are born that year, more than 200 million children can be born in a year.
Are you still afraid of fewer people?I'm afraid there will be so many "bricks" can't stand it!