In 2022, it will be limited by semiconductor production capacity. Sales in the European passenger car market fell to the lowest point in nearly a decade (about 9.3 million units).
With the gradual easing of the contradiction between supply and demand of semiconductors, the European passenger car market has begun to recover gradually. In the first ten months of 2023, the European market increased by 16 percent year-on-year7%。In order to ** the structural changes behind the growth, Shangxi Zhishu has produced this multi-dimensional European passenger car market analysis report.
Overview of the European market
According to ACEA, in the first 10 months of 2023, monthly sales were significantly higher than in 2022. However, although sales have maintained double-digit year-on-year growth, there is still a significant gap compared to the pre-pandemic period. Considering that the economic indicators in the European region are not ideal, there is still some uncertainty in maintaining the momentum of high-speed recovery.
In terms of power type, the market share of BEVs in NEVs has increased considerably. However, due to the withdrawal of PHEV subsidies in some major countries, the market share of plug-in hybrid PHEVs has declined to a certain extent.
Although when the market recovers, most brands can enjoy the dividends of growth. However, judging from the year-on-year growth rate, it is easy to identify strong brands - in addition to Tesla's growth rate, Volkswagen, Audi, and Skoda, all of which are under the Volkswagen Group, have ushered in high double-digit growth.
In addition, the Renault Group's Renault brand and Dacia also performed well.
European market structure
SUV models are becoming more and more popular among European consumers, not only with a large sales base, but also with a significantly higher year-on-year growth rate than sedans.
From the perspective of brand positioning, although the mainstream brands have a high market share (73.).6%), but the growth rate is slightly lower than that of luxury brands.
In terms of market segments, the luxury car market is more inclined to compact (A) and midsize (B) SUVs, while the mainstream market is more inclined to small (A0) and compact (A) SUVs.
If you sort by country sales, the sales ranking order of Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain, the five old automobile powers, has not changed.
If we only look at the penetration rate of new energy (NEV, including BEV and PHEV), Nordic countries such as Norway, Sweden and Iceland rank relatively high. The traditional powerhouses of Germany and France can only be ranked 14th and 15th.
On the other hand, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France ranked in the top three due to their high sales bases. Among the top 10, only Norway's NEV sales fell year-on-year, indicating the importance of policy support for NEV consumer demand.
Best-selling models
In the list of best-selling models in the European market, Tesla's Model Y won the second place with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 140%.
Also growing at a rate of more than 100% is the MG ZS from China, which has sold more than 6 percent this year60,000 units, the first time in the TOP50 list.
In addition to this, most of the top spots in the sales list are monopolized by small cars (such as Dacia Sandero, VW T-ROC, Peugeot 208, Renault Clio, etc.).
On the list of best-selling BEV models, except for Tesla, which firmly occupies the top two places on the luxury list with an absolute advantage, the rest of the best-selling models are mainly entry-level luxury compact SUVs.
In the mainstream market, sales of best-selling models are relatively close. id.Although the 4 and MG4 took the top two spots, the sales gap with other models was not obvious.
Overall, the BEV market is still growing rapidly, and most new cars are still enjoying market dividends.
While the luxury PHEV market is still growing, the year-on-year decline in the mainstream PHEV market has dragged down the overall PHEV market to show slight growth.
Conclusion
It seems inappropriate to describe the recovery of the European passenger car market in terms of high growth, after all, its sales have fallen a lot from their peak. Considering that the economic situation is not optimistic, even if some manufacturers have a large number of orders in hand to deliver, the long-term growth prospects of the entire market are still worrying.
Looking at the changes in the energy mix, it is easy to see that the BEV market is gradually becoming its main development direction. The share of PHEVs is gradually decreasing and slowly losing their attractiveness.
The entry of cost-effective Chinese brands such as BYD and MG has changed the market competition pattern to a certain extent, bringing considerable competitive pressure to local manufacturers.
At present, most of these pressures are passed on to mainstream markets such as compact and small cars. In the future, as some new power brands (such as NIO, Ideal, Zeekr, Denza, etc.) actively expand the market and enhance their brand awareness, it may gradually put pressure on the entry-level luxury car market.
We'll see. At that time, it may be a different story.